149
FXUS62 KRAH 090008
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
808 PM EDT Fri Aug 8 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A mid and upper-level low will pivot slowly east and across the
southern Middle Atlantic today and offshore by early Saturday.
Canadian surface high pressure will remain in place down the eastern
seaboard through the weekend, then shift offshore by Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 205 PM Friday...

Surface high pressure is centered to the east of New England with
ridging extending southwest into the Carolinas. Between the high and
a weak surface low developing off the North Carolina coast,
northeast flow continues to bring cool, moist flow off the Atlantic
Ocean. Compared to yesterday, there are some breaks in the clouds,
with the least coverage across north central areas. There are some
isolated showers across eastern North Carolina, and some of these
showers could reach as far west as I-95, although models have backed
off on the overall coverage of showers. The northeasterly flow will
result in another day of below normal temperatures, with highs
ranging from the mid 70s to the mid 80s. Low clouds are expected to
develop once again tonight at all locations. Below normal
temperatures will continue with lows in the 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1230 PM Friday...

* Mostly dry day expected, with isolated showers possible in the
  southeast in the afternoon and evening.

Surface high pressure will continue to filter over the region on
Saturday. This will allow for a mostly dry day for the majority of
central North Carolina. However, isolated showers are possible in
the afternoon and evening hours in the southeastern portions of the
region. Maximum temperatures will remain up to 10 degrees below
normal, with highs in the low 80s in the northwest to the mid 80s in
the southeast. Minimum temperatures are expected to be near normal,
in the mid 60s to around 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 1250 PM Friday...

*  Mainly diurnally driven showers and storms possible each day,
   with a gradual moderation in temperatures.

Aloft, while the sub-tropical ridge will ridge wwd across the
region, multiple disturbances will move near or across the area
through Tue. The low off the Northeast US coast will finally move
ewd over the North Atlantic mid/late week. The sub-tropical ridge
will strengthen over the area Tue-Wed, while a potent s/w drifts
slowly ewd across the Plains and MS Valley. This wave may move into
the Appalachians as early as Wed eve/night, pushing the high swd as
it moves across the area on Thu. At the surface, high pressure will
continue ridging swwd into the area on Sun. As the low offshore
moves ewd over the open Atlantic Sun, the high will slide sewd
across the mid-Atlantic and eventually shift offshore, while
continuing to ridge wwd into the area through Tue. The high should
move ewd over the Atlantic by Wed, with a Piedmont trough setting up
over the area Wed-Fri. Will continue with the climatological,
diurnal chances for showers/storms each day, with the best chances
generally across the south and east. For temperatures, highs will
gradually moderate from below normal on Sun to near/slightly above
normal Thu/Fri, while lows will also moderate from near normal to
slightly above normal through the week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 808 PM Friday...

24 hour TAF period: Largely VFR conditions are expected over the 24
hr TAF period as ceiling guidance has trended more favorable. Drier
air from the south-central VA will ooze across the northern Piedmont
overnight. Think this will limit cloud coverage at KINT/KGSO, but
can`t fully rule out periods of MVFR ceilings near sunrise Saturday.
Further east, low-level moisture fields appear a bit more favorable
for possible periods of MVFR/IFR ceilings especially at KFAY/KRWI.

Any lingering sub-VFR ceilings will lift by mid morning.  The rest
of Saturday should be relatively dry, however can`t rule out an
isolated shower/storm at KFAY along the inland penetrating sea
breeze.

Outlook: A typically summertime pattern of diurnally driven showers
and thunderstorms should reestablish itself during the extended
period, with any location that receives rain during the daytime more
likely to have restrictions during the early morning hours the next
day.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Green
NEAR TERM...Green
SHORT TERM...Helock
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...Luchetti/Green