860
FXUS62 KRAH 240711
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
311 AM EDT Tue Jun 24 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A strong ridge of high pressure will extend over the Mid-Atlantic
through mid-week, then slowly shift west into the Tennessee Valley
region late week into the weekend. Expect a continuation of
dangerously hot weather.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 302 AM Tuesday...

* Dangerous and life-threatening heat continues.

* An Extreme Heat Warning (east) and a Heat Advisory (west) are in
  effect from through 800 PM Wednesday evening.

Aloft, high pressure will remain centered over the region today,
shifting ever so slightly wwd tonight. At the surface, high pressure
should remain over the srn/cntl Appalachians through tonight, with a
trough extending swwd over central NC. Low-level thicknesses are
expected to max out around 1445 meters this eve. While today may be
slightly less humid than Mon, the combination of temperatures around
100 degrees and RH values in the mid 30s to mid 40s percent will
still result in heat index values around 105 (west) to around 110
(east) this aft/eve. Some guidance still suggests isolated to
scattered showers/storms possible this eve/tonight, associated with
a mid/upr-level disturbance moving swd-swwd-wwd into and across the
area. The convection could impact lows tonight, but for now
generally expect lows in the mid to upper 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 130 AM Tuesday...

* Dangerous heat continues, but strong late-day storms are possible;
  Extreme Heat Warning remains in effect areawide through Wed.

The peak of this heat wave will extend into Wed, with low level
thicknesses 20-30 m above normal. A stagnant surface air mass and
weak Piedmont trough will persist, although aloft, the core of the
strong mid level anticyclone will have weakened slightly (by 20-30
m) and shifted to over KY/TN, as the weak and slow-moving mid level
low over the Bahamas early Wed continues its WNW drift over FL. The
500 mb heights over NC will still be 1.5-2.5 SD above normal, while
our projected 925 mb temps will be above the 90th percentile and
close to the daily record, and all of this supports another day of
dangerously hot highs in the upper 90s to lower 100s. But the big
wildcards are the potential presence of remnant clouds from any area
or regional showers/storms late today and tonight (a particular
concern over our NE), plus the chance for convection late Wed, esp
firing over the higher terrain, near the inland-penetrating sea
breeze, and/or along any differential heating or thermal-moisture
boundaries. Model spread is large on this latter point, with some
deterministic runs and ensemble members favoring numerous storm
clusters, primarily in our far W and across our S and E, while other
solutions are mostly dry. Despite expected strong heating through
much of the day, the very warm temps just off the ground will delay
the developing strong elevated CAPE from becoming rooted at the
surface, but the steep 800-600 mb lapse rates within plentiful
moisture through the column (PW of 1.8-2.0") shown on most models
and strong surface heating would seem to support at least scattered
storms, esp within improving deep layer bulk shear as the mid level
ridge drifts away and the low and its trough pushes toward FL and
the Southeast coast (although this will still remain on the low
side). Will carry chance pops, a bit above climatology and more so
over our SE, with the highest pops from 21z (as favored by HREF
members) and lasting through the evening. Given expected CAPE over
3500 J/kg with the uptick in shear, some storms could be strong to
severe, a scenario supported by SPC and several traditional and AI
models. Expect highs of 94-101F, with heat index values of 100-114F
areawide. The NWS experimental HeatRisk will again be in the major
to extreme category, indicative of high potential for dangerous heat
illnesses among the entire population of central NC. For people
without access to cooling, this kind of heat can be deadly,
particularly after multiple very hot days and little recovery at
night. Will keep the Extreme Heat Warning in place. Lows mostly in
the low-mid 70s. -GIH

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 205 AM Tuesday...

* Heat index values will dip a few degrees for Thu through the
  weekend, but heat-health threats will continue for many
  populations as temperatures stay well above normal.

* Additional heat advisories (at least) will likely be needed for
  much of central NC during this period.

While the intense heat will have abated slightly by Thu, we will
remain anomalously warm to close out June. The stagnant air mass
will hold in place with persistent surface troughing over the
Piedmont, while aloft, our flow will remain light, as mid-upper
ridging will arc from the Ohio Valley across the Mid Atlantic to E
of the Bahamas, with the FL upper low continuing a NW drift into
AL/GA. Our low level thicknesses will remain ~10-20 m above normal
through this period, while both 500 mb heights and projected 850 mb
temps should hold at 1.5-2.5 SD above normal through the weekend. As
the core of the mid level ridge becomes re-established near Bermuda
and strengthens anew Sat through Mon, it will extend back NW into
NC, keeping us at a continued risk of dangerously hot conditions.
The slight downturn in heights aloft by Thu/Fri and increasing (but
still light) low level flow from the SSE and S should allow for
daily late-day isolated to scattered storms each day, with the
better coverage over our NW with a weak upslope component and
potential for mountain convection to drift eastward late in the day.
The vast majority of each day will be dry, as coverage will continue
to be limited by the weak mid level flow and the lack of convective
focus, and predictability with the details will remain low, but
overall expect the better storm chances (still near or below
climatology) to be across our NW and perhaps our far SE. Highs each
day should be mostly in the mid 90s, perhaps low 90s near the VA
border and a few upper 90s from the Triangle down through the
Sandhills, with daily lows generally in the low-mid 70s. -GIH

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 200 AM Tuesday...

24 hour TAF period: Winds should be calm to light through daybreak,
increasing a couple/few kts during the day while veering from nly to
sely. While most of the period should be VFR, some hi-res guidance
suggests fog/low stratus development north and east of KRDU,
spreading south and east. While confidence is low, highest chance
for restrictions will be at KRWI and possibly KRDU, through
daybreak. A handful of obs surrounding KRDU and KRWI are already
reporting sub-VFR conditions. Have included tempos at those sites to
account for the possibility/uncertainty. Any restrictions that
materialize should clear up after daybreak. There is still a slight
chance for showers/storms to slide swd into the area toward the end
of the TAF period, but will leave mention out for now.

Outlook: There will be the chance for diurnally driven convection
and early morning fog/low stratus through the end of the week.
Otherwise, VFR conditions should generally prevail.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record Daily High Minimum Temperatures...

             Raleigh        Greensboro      Fayetteville

June 24      76 (2024)      76 (2015)       79 (2010)
June 25      77 (2010)      75 (2015)       75 (1952)
June 26      77 (2024)      74 (2010)       76 (1997)
June 27      76 (1952)      76 (1969)       77 (1998)
June 28      76 (1952)      76 (1969)       78 (1914)
June 29      78 (1914)      74 (2024)       76 (1969)
June 30      80 (1936)      77 (2024)       79 (1936)

Record Daily Maximum Temperatures...

             Raleigh        Greensboro      Fayetteville

June 24       99 (2010)      103 (1914)     102 (1914)
June 25      100 (1952)      101 (1914)     102 (1914)
June 26      103 (2024)      102 (1914)     101 (1951)
June 27      104 (1954)      102 (1954)     102 (1998)
June 28      100 (1959)       99 (1959)     105 (1954)
June 29      105 (2012)      102 (2012)     106 (2012)
June 30      105 (2012)      101 (1959)     102 (2012)

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for NCZ007>011-
024>028-040>043-076>078-088-089.
Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for NCZ021>023-038-039-
073>075-083>086.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Badgett
NEAR TERM...KC
SHORT TERM...Hartfield
LONG TERM...Hartfield
AVIATION...KC
CLIMATE...RAH