575
FXUS62 KRAH 032344
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
640 PM EST Sat Jan 3 2026

.SYNOPSIS...
A wavy frontal zone will move across and offshore the South Atlantic
states through tonight. High pressure will otherwise ridge across
the Middle Atlantic through the weekend, then drift offshore on
Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 300 PM Saturday...

* Light rain ending through the afternoon-evening

* Clearing, at least partially so, and seasonably cold tonight

A positively-tilted shortwave trough will progress across and
offshore GA and the Carolinas through this evening, while another
shortwave perturbation will dig across the OH Valley, then across
and offshore the Middle Atlantic tonight. Cntl NC will be in a
relative minimum of large-scale forcing for ascent between the two
through this evening, followed by modestly to strongly rising
heights and deep subsidence later tonight-Sun. A zone of mesoscale
frontogenesis, centered around 850 mb and accompanying an elongated
low at that level from nrn SC to sern NC, and evident in regional
VWP and also as a subtle swirl in GOES-E Visible satellite data,
will move across and offshore sern NC through this evening.

At the surface, a wavy frontal zone now stretching from a ~1008 mb
wave near the Savannah Metro wswwd across srn GA, AL, and MS, will
progress ssewd and across and offshore the South Atlantic and Gulf
coasts tonight. A weak, ~1016 mb high will meanwhile and otherwise
extend in the lee of the Appalachians from MD/NJ sswwd and across
the Carolinas and GA.

Light rain, with mostly Trace to a couple of hundredths of an inch,
except slightly higher along and north of the aforementioned 850 mb
Fgen band over sern zones/counties, will taper off/end from west to
east through the evening. Nearly steady temperatures of mostly 40-45
F this afternoon will decrease to seasonably cold values within a
few degrees either side of 30 F Sun morning, accompanied by a
general clearing trend that may be interrupted/delayed for several
hours by a band of lingering/passing, 5-8 thousand ft stratocumulus/
altocumulus overnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1205 PM Saturday...

Aloft, nwly flow  and subsidence will prevail, with the departing
s/w trough to the east and longwave ridging to the west. Skies
should clear out through the morning, with mostly sunny skies
expected by mid-day. There could be a couple of weak passing
disturbances, one Sun aft, the other Sun night, the latter primarily
resulting in some increased high clouds from the west after sunset.
At the surface, high pressure will move ewd from the OH Valley,
across the Appalachians and mid-Atlantic to along the mid-
Atlantic/Northeast US coast Sun/Sun night, ridging swd across the
area. As the center of the high tracks ewd across the mid-Atlantic
Sun eve/night, the surface flow over central NC will gradually veer
from nly to more sely/sly by 12Z Monday. Both the NAM and GFS
analyses show increasing isentropic lift from the mtns to the NW/wrn
Piedmont late Sun night into Mon morning, which could result in some
low overcast skies. Highs still expected to range from mid 40s NE to
mid 50s SW on Sun, with lows Sun night dependent upon the cloud
cover but generally ranging from low mid 20s to low 30s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 1215 PM Saturday...

* Unseasonably warm temperatures mid to late week with temperatures
  15-25 degrees above normal.

The mid/upper level pattern turns more-or-less zonal through Tues
with a broad and low-amplitude sub-tropical ridge anchored over
northern Gulf states and extending across a majority of the southern
CONUS east of the Rockies. This ridge axis will slowly build
eastward and amplify over the eastern CONUS heading into the
weekend; only briefly interrupted by low-amplitude clipper waves
sliding across the Great Lakes and northern Mid-Atlantic Tues and
Wed. Neither of these waves will bring any precip chances to our
area as they remain well north of the region.

Surface high pressure will shift offshore Mon evening and begin a
pattern of unseasonably warm temperatures through the late week
period. Greater cloud coverage and a backdoor cold front perhaps
drifting into northeastern NC may keep temperatures slightly cooler
on Thurs. This front is expected to rapidly lift northward back into
VA as a warm front and likely bring highs greater than 20 degrees
above normal on Fri. A plume of anomalous moisture leaking across
the southern Appalachians into the Mid-Atlanic Fri may overlap with
weak WAA and bring locally thicker clouds and perhaps some light
rain, primarily to the Piedmont, on Fri. This may cut into
temperatures a bit (5 to 10 degrees cooler) compared to the latest
forecast. Better precip chances will come this weekend as the plume
of moisture sags over and perhaps briefly stalls over the region
within a weakly perturbed southwesterly flow aloft.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 640 PM Saturday...

* Clearing skies leading to VFR

Light rain has pushed east of central NC TAF sites, with a gradual
scouring of low clouds from north to south in its wake.  IFR and
MVFR continue around FAY where the clearing will be latest to
occur...likely by 03Z...with all sites generally SKC through the day
on Sunday.

Outlook: Outside of some brief and lower probability MVFR ceilings
across the western Piedmont (more likely west of INT), VFR
conditions are expected for most of the coming week.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...MWS
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM...AS
AVIATION...BLS