279
FXUS62 KRAH 250741
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
240 AM EST Mon Nov 25 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak backdoor front will hover near the North Carolina and
Virginia border through this morning, before lifting back north as a
warm front later today. A cold front will sweep through the region
Tuesday morning, then settle to our south Tuesday night through
Wednesday, as weak high pressure moves quickly eastward over the Mid
Atlantic region. This high pressure will push offshore late
Wednesday. A strong low pressure center will approach from the west
Wednesday night, bringing unsettled weather through Thanksgiving Day.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 130 AM Monday...

We`ll see just some high clouds today, with unseasonably warm temps.
The latest surface analysis shows high pressure centered well off
the Southeast coast extending back across FL, producing a light S/SW
flow in our area, although surface winds are lightest and most
erratic near a weak and diffuse backdoor front situated close to the
VA border. Patches of high thin clouds over NC and upstream to our W
over the mid/lower Miss Valley will continue passing over our area
today, predominantly scattered, resulting in fair skies. The weak
front will lift N as a warm front later today, and low level
thicknesses that are already expected to be 25-30 m above normal
this morning will rise further, supporting mild highs nearly 10 deg
above normal, mostly in the upper 60s to low 70s.

This evening and tonight, clouds will steadily thicken with lowering
bases over NC as a surface cold front approaches in tandem with a
deepening mid level shortwave trough (now over NC/SC/NE) that will
shift through the Great Lakes region through tonight. Models
continue to vary with respect to rain chances and amounts with the
front, and the front is expected to hold just NW of the CWA through
tonight, however a low level jet and a stream of high (175-200% of
normal) PW just ahead of and with the front will work into the Triad
late tonight, along with a weak shot of upper divergence and weak
DPVA. It`s not clear that there will be enough deep dynamic forcing
for ascent to generate measurable precip, especially with the Gulf
largely cut off, resulting in an absence of good low level moisture
advection. Have sped up the arrival of rain chances into our NW late
tonight, based on latest guidance pace, but opted to leave it as a
slight chance for now, with low amounts of just a few hundredths of
an inch. The warm temps will persist in the prefrontal warm sector,
with lows in the upper 40s to lower 50s anticipated. -GIH

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 145 AM Monday...

The surface cold front is expected to track ESE through central NC
Tue morning through early afternoon. The dynamic forcing for ascent
and low level mass convergence near the front will remain weak to
absent, and we`ll remain cut off from the Gulf near the surface, as
PWs gradually decline as the front moves through. While the column
may become saturated through a significant enough layer for a chance
of very light rain reaching the ground, the coverage and amounts
appear limited, and will continue to translate tonight`s slight
chances in the northwest ESE through central NC through early Tue
afternoon as the front passes by. A modifying area of high pressure
now spilling SSE into the central Plains will track eastward into
NC/VA behind the front from mid Tue afternoon through Tue night, so
expected a NW-to-SE clearing trend from midday in the Triad through
the area to our SE by very early evening. With such a relatively
warm start to the day, highs should still reach the mid 60s to
around 70, but temps across the Piedmont in particular will reach
their highs earlier than typical, with readings leveling off in the
afternoon as cooler and drier air spills in. Fair skies will
continue Tue evening, but mid and high clouds will spread into our
western sections Tue night as the mid-upper westerly flow
accelerates from the Plains across the Ohio Valley and Mid Atlantic
region. As surface dewpoints will have fallen into the mid 20s to
mid 30s as the high pressure ridge settles across our area, temps
should drop to lows a bit below normal, mostly in the 30s. -GIH

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 240 PM Monday...

Upper level trough over the Northern Rockies region will swing
across the country  bringing unsettled weather late week. At the
surface, Wednesday will be dry as high pressure will be centered
over the Mid-Atlantic region before moving offshore late Wednesday
early Thursday. Meanwhile a strengthening low pressure system moving
across the Central Plains is expected to move into the TN valley
Wednesday night and continue to trek northeast across the Mid-
Atlantic Thursday and early Friday. While long range models are in
somewhat an agreement of an onset for rain early Thursday morning
the organization of the system and where it exactly tracks is still
a little uncertain. For now, expect a wet Thanksgiving with showers
and storms through out the day. The best chance for storms will be
in the southeastern counties including portions of the Sandhills and
Coastal Plain. The front is anticipated to move out of the region by
early Friday morning with chilly weather moving in behind.  Friday
afternoon will be mostly sunny with dry weather expected through the
weekend.

Temperatures through the long term will start out above average with
highs in the upper 50s to mid 60s Wednesday. South/southwesterly
flow Thursday ahead of the front will result in highs in the low 60s
NW to low 70s SE. After the front comes through Friday through
Sunday will be well below average with highs in the mid/upper 40s to
low 50s during the day. Lows will be chilly over the weekend with
Friday-Sunday night temperatures area wide in the 20s. Combined with
light winds, this will result in wind chills in the upper teens  to
near 20 degrees in some areas. Everyone should take precautions for
homes and businesses as most areas will be 32 degrees or lower for
several hours on Friday and Saturday nights (and mostly likely
Sunday night).

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 1225 AM Monday...

Confidence is high that VFR conditions will continue across central
NC over the next 24 hours. A few high clouds will pass over the area
today, with some thicker clouds lowering into the mid levels at
western terminals late in the period (after 03z). Surface winds will
be light mainly from the SW, however low level wind shear (LLWS) is
likely to begin at INT/GSO/RDU after 03z as a low level WSW jet
around 40 kts at 1500-2000 ft AGL moves into the area from the W.

Looking beyond 06z Tue, LLWS will spread east over all terminals
late tonight and persist through daybreak. Clouds will increase W to
E after 06z with lowering bases, however cigs should remain mostly
VFR. A band of light rain is expected to push W to E over central NC
after 09z early Tue through early afternoon, however any sub-VFR
conditions are expected to be brief. VFR conditions are expected
from late Tue until late Wed night, then sub-VFR conditions are
expected from late Wed night through Thanksgiving night with periods
of rain. Another round of LLWS is also expected late Wed night into
Thanksgiving morning. VFR weather should return Fri. -GIH

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Hartfield
NEAR TERM...Hartfield
SHORT TERM...Hartfield
LONG TERM...CA
AVIATION...Hartfield