964
FXUS62 KRAH 060132
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
932 PM EDT Thu Jun 5 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak area of low pressure will track slowly east northeast across
southern and eastern NC through Friday morning. A series of mid and
upper-level disturbances will overspread and interact with a frontal
zone that will settle into and stall over NC this weekend through
early to mid next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 930 PM Thursday...

Forecast remains largely on track, small adjustments made to account
for latest obs and trends.

As of 00Z, the surface low has stalled over the srn Piedmont, with
the s/w aloft stacking above it, as shown in the 00Z upper air
analyses. Some scattered showers and patchy light rain continue
across the srn and ern Piedmont, and the Sandhills, however the
threat for any strong storms, or storms at all, has largely
diminished. There are still some persistent, slow moving heavier
showers, so will maintain watch for any flooding concerns. However,
those concerns should be isolated and limited to urban areas. The
surface low should move very slowly ewd to the NC coast through
tonight, with the rain and showers gradually tapering off as it
does. As stated in the previous discussion, in the wake of the low
and precipitation, widespread low overcast, and areas of fog over
the nw through srn Piedmont, will prevail overnight, with low
temperatures in the 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 350 PM Thursday...

Generally low amplitude, quasi-zonal/wly mid to upr-level flow will
prevail from the srn Plains to the srn Middle Atlantic. An embedded,
convectively-amplified mid-level trough will move enewd and across
the mid MS Valley early Fri and OH Valley and cntl Appalachians Fri
afternoon and night, with associated, weak 10-30 meter/12hr 500 mb
height falls that will glance cntl NC Fri night.

At the surface, weak, 1013 mb low pressure over the Outer Banks Fri
morning will move slowly enewd and offshore, while deepening by
several millibars. A trailing, weak frontal zone will likely retreat
slowly nwd over nern NC and srn VA, while a lee trough will develop
over the srn Middle Atlantic wrn Piedmont.

Clearing behind the departing low, except for some lingering low
clouds on the cool side of the aforementioned frontal zone over the
far ne Piedmont and nrn Coastal Plain will allow for strong diurnal
heating into the mid 80s to near 90 F. That heating of a seasonably
moist airmass characterized by surface dewpoints mostly in the
mid/upr 60s will yield moderate destabilization and weakening
convective inhibition, such that scattered convection may develop
invof the lee trough (ie. nw Piedmont) and over the mountains, and
possibly along the retreating frontal zone, despite generally
neutral height tendency and a lack of background forcing for ascent.
SOme of that activity may drift sewd across the remainder of the
Piedmont and Sandhills through the evening, before dissipating. Some
additional, weakening upstream convection, influenced by the
convectively-amplified mid-level trough, may subsequently move east
of the mountains and into the nrn Piedmont early Sat morning. It
will otherwise be quite mild and humid, with lows within a few
degrees either side of 70 F.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 240 PM Thursday...

* general mid and upper-level troughing across the eastern U.S.
  through mid week along with a moist and unstable environment will
  result in a period of greater than average precipitation chances.
* Rain chances will be maximized during the afternoon and evening,
  especially on Sunday and again Tuesday into Wednesday.
* Stronger deep layer flow should support an increased risk of
  stronger storms on Sunday and perhaps Tuesday or Wednesday.

Saturday will likely be the better day for outdoor activities this
weekend as guidance suggests a little less convection than
previously expected. Convection across the TN Valley on Friday night
will likely weaken as it moves east with the remnants moving into
western and northern NC on Saturday morning and dissipating. While
cloud cover may be increased, rain chances would appear limited
through the early to mid afternoon hours. The convective remnants
may be a contributor to convective redevelopment during the
afternoon and evening, likely across eastern and southern areas.

Rain chances increase on Sunday as a shortwave trough across the OH
Valley and an associated cold front drop into the region. With dew
points in the upper 60s to lower 70s, favorable lapse rates,
moderately instability and enhanced flow, there is a risk of strong
to severe storms primarily during the afternoon and evening.

Brief shortwave ridging on Monday ahead of the next trough should
result in a bit of a lull or reduced threat of showers and storms. A
stronger mid and upper level trough moves across the Great Lakes and
the Northeast on Tuesday and Wednesday with an associated cold front
and enhanced flow spreading into our region. This will likely result
in another period of showers and storms with high PoPs and a threat
of strong to severe storms on Tuesday and Wednesday. The troughing
moves offshore and some weak ridging builds into the Southeast on
Thursday resulting in a diminished risk of showers and storms on
Thursday.

Temperatures are likely to range near to above normal during the
period. Highs should be the warmest on Saturday and Monday with
highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s as there is apt to be a lull in
convection and perhaps cloud cover. Heat index values these days
will range in the 90s with some upper 90s possible across the
southeast areas. Otherwise highs will range in the 80s to around 90.
-Blaes

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 753 PM Thursday...

MVFR to IFR conditions still linger across all TAF sites, with the
exception of INT where clouds have recently scattered out to VFR
with SCT ceilings of 1800ft to 2000ft in the far NW Piedmont.
Showers have continued across the Sandhills and portions of the
Coastal Plain where IFR to low end MVFR restrictions continue. The
low is centered over the Sandhills and expected to weaken as it
shifts to the NE. Overnight, fog and low stratus are possible across
areas that saw rain this afternoon and evening, which was pretty
widespread across the area. Thus, as the rain moves out tonight I
introduced IFR to LIFR restrictions at 7z across the north and tad
earlier at FAY. By morning, generally 11z-15z Fri, sites are
expected to become VFR in the NW and MVFR elsewhere. Other sites
might not get to VFR conditions until the early afternoon. While
scattering out in the afternoon is expected, another round of
showers/storms are expecting to develop in the NW Piedmont. Thus,
have a  PROB30 at INT/GSO at the end of the 00z/Fri TAF. While no
other PROB30s were introduced at the other TAF sites for this
issuance, timing could be a factor in adding it in at later
issuance. Some models are showing the NW Piedmont storms that
develop Friday afternoon largely dissipate as it moves across the
region others have the line continuing across the region past 00z.

Outlook: A good chance of mainly afternoon and evening showers/
storms will accompany a frontal zone that will settle into and
linger over NC through early to mid next week. Areas of morning
fog/stratus will also be possible, particularly where rain occurs
the previous afternoon-evening.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...KC/MWS
SHORT TERM...MWS
LONG TERM...Blaes
AVIATION...CA/MWS