996
FXUS62 KRAH 071929
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
330 PM EDT Mon Apr 7 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A slow-moving cold front and low pressure will move through the
region today and tonight. Canadian high pressure will bring
significantly colder air and a threat for a frost and freeze across
the region during the middle of the week. Another cold front will
approach Thursday with the next chance of showers.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
As of 330 PM Monday...

-Severe Thunderstorm Watch in effect across eastern Sandhills and
coastal plain counties through 10 pm. The main primary hazard is
damaging winds. A brief tornado is also, mainly over the eastern
Piedmont and Coastal Plain through the early evening.

-Widespread significant rain expected into this evening, tapering
off tonight. 1.5 to 2 inches of rain is forecast throughout central
NC. The heavy rain could lead to minor flooding, primarily in urban
and poor drainage areas.

A vigorous upper trough and attendant wavy cold front will move
through the area through this evening and tonight. Anomalously moist
PWATS of 1.7-1.9"(falls outside/above the NAEFS 3-week centered
climatology dating back to 1979)into the area will set the stage for
multiple rounds of showers and storms within a slow eastward moving
band of convection. The convection/rain is expected to exit the
eastern/coastal plain zones between 06 to 08z.

The lead pre-frontal band of convection finally made it into
eastern/southeastern portions of the forecast area, where surface
temperatures have warmed into the low-mid 80s with 64-70 F
dewpoints. The resultant 1000-1500 J/Kg of SBCape has allowed some
bowing segments to develop within the line, with 50-56kts causing
some damage over the eastern Sandhills. This lead band will exit the
area within the next hour. Additional showers and thunderstorms are
expected to re-develop through the remainder of the afternoon and
evening. However, rain cooled temperatures in the mid 60s will
likely thwart any secondary threat. Will have to monitor and update
as needed.

Expected storm total rainfall amounts of 1-2", with localized higher
amounts of 2-3" possible, will bring some much needed widespread
rain to the abnormally dry and moderate drought conditions
encompassing much of central NC. Flooding threat will be very
localized/isolated, likely limited to poor drainage/urban
environments. In terms of rivers, forecast and ensemble guidance
indicate that main-stream rivers should stay below flood guidance,
with a few forecast points, approaching actions stage, with a worst-
scenario of cresting just above minor flood stage.

Temperatures: CAA will set in tonight with lows much cooler compared
to the 3-4 day span of record warm nights. Lows ranging from upper
30s/near 40 NW to upper 40s/near 50 SE.


&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 330 PM Monday...

-Frost/freeze conditions likely Tuesday night.

A dry reinforcing cold front will move across the region during the
afternoon and evening as Canadian surface high pressure builds over
the area Tuesday night. After days of record warmth, the cP airmass
building into the area will definitely bring a drastic change and
shock to many Carolinians. Highs ranging from mid 50s north, to
lower 60s south.

The primary concern is the Freeze potential Tuesday night/Wednesday
morning. The center of the surface high settles into an ideal
position by daybreak Wednesday, with winds likely decoupling across
the northern half of the forecast area. Lows are expected to range
from upper 20s to lower 30s across the northern two-thirds of the
forecast area, and mid 30s across the southern tier. Some of the
colder locations could bottom out into the mid 20s. With the growing
season hyper active due to recent record warmth, this would result
in a killing/damaging freeze for a good portion of the forecast
area. Thus, have issued a Freeze Watch the northern two-thirds of
the forecast area.


&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 330 PM Monday...

* Largely below normal temperatures in the extended, with a warmup
  expected early next week

* Greatest rain chances still late Thu night through Fri, though
  showers may still linger Saturday

The Continental Polar high over us to start Wed will lift north and
east, with return flow setting up on Thu as a warm front lifts into
the Mid-Atlantic. A deep trough starts to dig into the mid-section
of the country late Wed. This trough will deepen as it tracks ESE
from the OH/TN valley region into the Mid-Atlantic from late Thu
night thru Sat. Most guidance then shows the trough exits off the
Mid-Atlantic coast late Sat or early Sun. At the surface, southerly
flow takes over Thu, with a brief warmup into Fri, ahead of a cold
front forecast to track through the region by Sat morning. A surface
low is forecast to develop along the front on Fri, but ensemble
guidance is mixed on its track. Some of the ensemble clusters take
the main low into northern VA, while other clusters take the system
further south right atop the Carolinas. Guidance is in fairly good
agreement that the low will move offshore by midday Sat, with a mean
center off Delmarva.

Based on the suite of deterministic and ensemble data, the best
chance for showers still appears late Thu night through Fri, with
the highest rain chances Fri aftn/eve. Depending on the low track,
isolated storms will be possible Fri aftn/eve in the warm sector
under ample shear and instability ~ 500 J/kg. Showers may linger
into Sat on the back side of the system with the mid-level trough
overhead, especially along/east of US-1. Even in the absence of
rain, it should cloudy/chilly Sat. Ensemble guidance generally
pushes the trough out by Sun, but one outlier solution keeps it over
us into Sun. We will hold on to slight chances of rain along/east of
US-1 during the day Sat, but keep it dry for Sun. Warmer weather is
expected by early next week under ridging building into the area.

As for temperatures, highs will largely be below normal. Our warmest
days will be Thu/Fri ahead of the late-week cold front in the upper
60s to low 70s. Our coldest days will be Wed and Sat in the upper
50s to mid 60s. Above normal weather is forecast by Mon with highs
well into the 70s under southwest surface flow.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH Saturday/...
As of 130 PM Monday...

24 hour TAF period:
A slow eastward moving band of showers, with some embedded
thunderstorms, will cross the area through the evening and
early overnight hours, before exiting.

MVFR to IFR restrictions can be expected as the convection moves
through the area. A few of the storms could become strong/severe
during the afternoon/early evening, mainly from RDU eastward. Gusty
SWLY winds of 30 to 35 kts will continue ahead of the storms, with a
period of weaker, 15 to 20 kts NWLY post frontal gustiness expected
during the evening and overnight hours. The sub-VFR restrictions
will scatter out to VFR from west to east between 03z and 12z and
should remain VFR through the remainder of the forecast period.

Beyond 18z Tuesday; The next chance for sub-VFR restrictions will
arrive late Thursday into Friday with the arrival of the next
shortwave trough and frontal system into the Eastern US.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Freeze Watch from late Tuesday night through Wednesday morning for
NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CBL/Badgett
NEAR TERM...CBL
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...Kren
AVIATION...CBL/Badgett