482
FXUS62 KRAH 192328
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
730 PM EDT Tue Aug 19 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Surface high pressure centered over Maine will extend into the
region through tonight and retreat on Wednesday. Hurricane Erin will
advance north over the next few days moving just off and parallel to
the Carolina coastline late Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
As of 220 PM Tuesday...

* Stubborn clouds will break up a bit and lift this
  afternoon before clouds redevelop tonight.

The latest surface analysis shows a weak front extending southwest
along the Carolina coast. Dew points near the coast range in the mid
and even upper 70s with dew points in the upper 60s across the
interior Piedmont. Visible satellite imagery continues to show an
expansive area of stratus across the Carolinas driven by a cool and
moist northeast flow near the surface. The airmass across central NC
is rather stable with an arc of weak instability extending from the
coastal region southwest to northern NC. Regional radar is showing
isolated convection beginning to fire near Albemarle and Pamlico
Sounds as well as the southern NC mountains. The coastal convection
will expand over the next few hours and drift southwest with time
and will potentially drift into the Coastal Plain late this
afternoon and early evening. A more stable air mass and some modest
capping at 750 mb should help limit convection to the eastern and
southeastern areas, largely east I-95. For most locations this
afternoon and evening will be dry with pleasant temperatures.
Another round of low stratus is apt to develop again tonight
although perhaps not as widespread as this morning. The widespread
clouds will result overnight lows about 3 to 6 degrees warmer
than average and range in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 245 PM Tuesday...

* Erin advances north with an isolated shower or storm and a few
  wind gusts up to around 20 mph across eastern areas Wednesday
  night.

Hurricane Erin will be advancing northward on Wednesday with an
expansive low-level northeasterly flow extending across the
Carolinas. At the same time a cold front will be dropping southeast
into the southern Appalachians on Wednesday. Widespread morning
stratus will lift a little earlier on Wednesday than this morning
resulting in a bit more sunshine and surface heating. This will
result in a slightly more unstable air mass which may support an
isolated shower or storm during the afternoon or evening across the
Coastal Plain/Sandhills and perhaps the eastern Piedmont with
most/all of the showers ending by late evening. Coverage will be
limited but a brief tropical shower is possible, especially east of
I-95. With a bit more sunshine, highs should warm into the lower to
mid 80s. The circulation around Erin will result in a northeast
breeze developing across much of central NC. Locations in the
Coastal Plain and eastern Sandhills will have occasional wind gusts
of 15 to 20 mph overnight with gusts of 10 to 15 mph elsewhere.
Overnight lows will be moderated by the breeze, most air mass and
clouds with lows in the lower 70s. -Blaes

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 215 PM Tuesday...

* Erin pulls away from the Carolina coast on Thursday afternoon with
  limited impacts to central NC. Winds across the Coastal Plain and
  Sandhills could gust to 20 to 25 mph at times on Thursday.

* Limited rain chances primarily across the western Piedmont
  through Saturday, spreading back over central NC Sunday.

* Turning cooler next week.

Continued subsidence in the wake of Hurricane Erin as it passes by
and then races off to the northeast Thursday, followed by shortwave
riding aloft will keep conditions dry Thursday and Friday. At the
surface high pressure will settle over the Mid-Atlantic region and
persist through Saturday. Meanwhile, a shortwave trough is forecast
to linger over the Deep South, awaiting the onset of a developing,
deeper long wave trough over the eastern US before it begins to lift
across the Southeast US later this weekend. This will bring
increasing moisture and the best chance for showers and storms,
although the best focus will initially be in the southern mountains
of NC as the high pressure over the Mid-Atlantic region only slowly
shifts east.  An area of low pressure may develop along the coast as
the deeper trough unfolds, but even with the returning moisture
models have trended drier Saturday through Sunday before a cold
front associated with the long wave trough moves through and once
again dries things out early next week. LREF probabilities only
indicate about a 30 percent chance of 0.10 in a 24 period over the
weekend, suggesting limited coverage. POPs are generally 40 percent
or less in the official forecast.

Temperatures will continue to be at or below normal and may trend
notably cooler next week under the long trough, as supported by the
CPC 610 and 814 day outlooks.  Official highs trend from the low
to mid 80s this week to upper 70 and lower 80s by Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 730 PM Tuesday...

Low stratus and patchy fog are expected to develop between 06z and
09z with CIGs eventually falling into IFR range. Low stratus on
Wednesday morning will slowly lift and give way to mainly VFR
conditions by midday.

Outlook: Another round of stratus is possible on Wednesday night;
however, generally VFR conditions are expected into late week.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Blaes
NEAR TERM...Blaes
SHORT TERM...Blaes
LONG TERM...BLS
AVIATION...Badgett/Blaes