256
FXUS62 KRAH 040703
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
255 AM EDT Fri Jul 4 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build over the region through Saturday. An area
of low pressure off the Southeast coast could move into the area
Sunday, bringing a return to wet weather Sunday into early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
As of 130 AM Friday...

* Not as humid but still heat indices in the 90s
* Low chances of storms in the southern Coastal Plain

Ridging over the mid-section of the country and troughing near ME
will promote a northerly flow today at mid-levels. High pressure
over the northern Mid-Atlantic and NE US will nose down today and
tonight, with NE flow. Lower dewpoint air will filter down from the
north, where some guidance suggests upper 50s to low/mid 60s
dewpoints for portions of the area. The exception is over the
Coastal Plain and Sandhills where lingering moisture will keep
dewpoints a tad higher. Highs will reach the upper 80s to low 90s.
Even with the lower dewpoint air, heat indices should still be in
the mid/upper 90s from the Triangle south so appropriate heat safety
is still warranted for the holiday. There is a low-end chance of a
few isolated storms in the eastern Sandhills and southern Coastal
Plain today into early evening along a lingering moisture gradient
and where a weak perturbation is at mid-levels. Activity looks
rather sparse, however, in the CAM guidance. Lows tonight will be
closer to average in the mid to upper 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 130 AM Friday...

* Less humid and more comfortable conditions
* Slight uptick in scattered shower/storm chances along/east of I-95

High pressure over the NE US will gradually shift off the coast late
Sat. At the same time, we will be watching the weak area of low
pressure that NHC is monitoring east of Jacksonville, FL that is
forecast to be somewhere off the coast of SC by early Sun. The two
pressure systems will again promote an ENE flow. Dewpoints are
forecast to be lower still relative to Fri, promoting heat indices
only in the upper 80s to around 90. It should feel more comfortable,
even with highs in the upper 80s to around 90. There will be a
slightly better chance of some isolated to scattered storms in the
day and evening, mainly for areas along/east of I-95. Moisture
transport north of the approaching low is set to increase into Sun
morning. Ridging during the day, however, should keep the best
chances mainly south and east of the Triangle. Increasing cloud
cover and the higher rain chances by Sun should favor warmer lows in
the upper 60s to low 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 2550 AM Wednesday...

* A low pressure area developing near the FL/GA coast is expected to
  drift north and move across the eastern Carolinas on Sunday into
  Monday. The main impact for central NC will be increased rain
  chances on Sunday afternoon and Sunday night into Monday,
  especially across the Coastal Plain and Sandhills.

* Otherwise, temperatures, humidity and chances of mainly afternoon
  and evening storms increase for Monday through Thursday with
  Tuesday and Wednesday the hottest days of the period and the best
  chance of showers and storms on Wednesday and especially Thursday.

A surface low organizing east of Jacksonville, Florida is expected
to lift north and the latest guidance suggests that the low center
will move onshore across the eastern SC or southern NC coast on
Sunday. Global ensembles suggest two camps for the storm motion with
those that have a weaker system moving it more slowly and perhaps
more westward while the members with a modestly stronger/deeper
system moving it a little faster northeast. The trend over the last
24 hours is for a slightly more organized system that perhaps moves
a little further inland across the NC Coastal Plain late Sunday into
Monday.

The NHC notes a 60% chance of a system developing and this is
largely semantics, as the impacts will largely be the same with
increasing shower and thunderstorm activity on Sunday afternoon and
evening continuing into Monday with the greatest rain coverage
across the Coastal Plain and Sandhills. The overall pattern suggests
that precipitation would be skewed near and right of the low track.
While some showers and storms will spread into the Piedmont, expect
coverage to be somewhat limited near and especially west of U.S.
route 1. Given the modest low pressure area, dont expect any wind
issues but the inland penetration of the attendant coastal trough
could introduce a risk of locally heavy rain and a few stronger
convective cells across eastern areas. With considerable cloudiness,
highs should be tempered a bit on Sunday and range in the mid 80s
although if the cloud shield is confined across eastern areas, highs
could reach the upper 80s to around 90 in the western Piedmont and
Triad.

The forecast for Monday is somewhat uncertain and largely dependent
on the evolution and motion of the surface low. With many ensemble
members suggesting the system could be moving away from central NC
by midday Monday, Monday could end up a nice day with limited storm
chances during the afternoon and evening. A slower motion could
result in an unsettled day, especially across eastern locations.
Will need to wait and see.

A gradual evolution to weak eastern U.S. troughiness occurs for
Tuesday through Thursday resulting in an increasing risk for mainly
afternoon and evening showers and storms, with the greatest risk on
Wednesday into Thursday. Tuesday and Wednesday will be with hottest
days of the period with highs in the lower 90s across the area. With
dewpoints persisting in the lower and possibly mid 70s, afternoon
heat index values will peaking around 100 in much of the area with a
few low 100s in the Coastal Plain and Sandhills. Highs will back off
a bit on Thursday as increased cloud cover and rain chances results
in highs in the upper 80s to around 90. -Blaes

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 1225 AM Friday...

Largely VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. The one
exception is at RWI, where lingering moisture could favor fog prior
to 12z. The past few hours of observations have ranged from 1 to 3
miles. Confidence is too low to include LIFR, but kept a mention of
IFR potential. Some gusts to 15-18 kt are possible today from the
NE. Cannot rule out a stray shower or storm near FAY today, but
confidence is too low to include at this time.

After 06Z Saturday: Predominantly VFR conditions are expected
through Sat, with a return to diurnally maximized showers/storms Sun
into early next week with a potential tropical or subtropical low
pressure system.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Kren
NEAR TERM...Kren
SHORT TERM...Kren
LONG TERM...Blaes
AVIATION...Kren