193
FXUS62 KRAH 221042
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
643 AM EDT Fri Aug 22 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build across the area today and Saturday. An area
of low pressure will track along and just off the coast of the
Carolinas on Sunday, before a cold front moves through the area on
Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 216 AM Friday...

A cluster of showers and storms continue to expand south-
southwestward across the Foothills and portions of the western
Piedmont this morning. However, it appears the more concerning
vigorous convection has largely remained west of our CWA and will
continue to do so as this cluster moves into the Charlotte metro
area. As such, those in the western/southern Piedmont can expect a
few more hours of light rain this morning before drying out by
sunrise.

At the sfc, the cold front has largely cleared our area into South
Carolina this morning. Expect this feature to slide a bit further
south today while drier air advects across much of central NC. The
higher theta-e will settle south of the front into SC/GA today. As
such, unsettled weather should largely be confined to south of us
through tonight.  Can`t fully rule out a rouge shower across the
NC/SC border, but overall expect generally dry conditions today and
tonight.

Otherwise expect a bit cooler highs today in the lower 80s.
Overnight lows in the mid to upper 60s are expected.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 216 AM Friday...

Similar pattern expected on Saturday with the cold front stalled to
our south promoting relatively dry conditions and cooler highs in
the lower 80s. As we pivot to the evening/overnight period, a sfc
low/wave is forecast to ripple along the stalled front somewhere off
the SC/GA coastline.  Some moisture associated with this system
could slip into our far southern areas and generate some showers.
Overall though, the high QPF signal amongst ensembles is much
stronger well to our south and offshore.   Overnight lows in the mid
to upper 60s is expected.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 123 AM Friday...

* A cold front will usher cooler and drier air into the region early
  next week

* Below normal temperatures and lower dewpoints for much of next week

Longwave troughing across the Great Lakes and an attendant surface
cold front will approach the area Sunday into Monday. Within the pre-
frontal warm sector on Sunday, scattered showers and thunderstorms
are expected within a broad area of upper forcing for ascent,
primarily across the western Piedmont. At the same time, a weak wave
over SC is progged to quickly move offshore, resulting in limited
precip chances across the Coastal Plain. It would not appear Sunday
will be a washout, but we`ll hang onto the 30-50 PoPs given these
two features with the highest values in the west, tapering down in
the east. The cloud cover to our south is likely to keep temps (and
instability) down a bit, so thunder may be a bit limited across the
area on Sunday.

The upstream trough and cold front should move through the area
during the day Monday. The long awaited cooler/drier air is likely
to get hung up west of the mountains at first and not arrive until
after sunset Monday, thus Monday will still be a bit on the mild
side with mid 80s for highs across the western Piedmont and closer
to 90 east of I-95. By Monday night, the cooler and drier air will
overspread the area and remain in place through much of the upcoming
week. Daytime highs will range from the mid/upper 70s in the west,
to around 80 in the east. Lows will range from the mid 50s in the
west to the upper 50s/lower 60s in the east.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 643 AM Friday...

IFR/MVFR stratus remains in place this morning, but should slowly
lift back to VFR by late morning/early afternoon. Some degree of
broken VFR ceilings are likely to remain in place through the
daytime hours, before additional MVFR stratocu returns late tonight
(especially at INT/GSO).

Outlook: Generally fair weather with VFR conditions are expected
into the weekend. Some MVFR CIGS are possible Saturday and Sunday
morning and an afternoon shower is possible Sunday and perhaps
Monday. Fair and quiet weather should follow through mid week.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Leins
NEAR TERM...Luchetti
SHORT TERM...Luchetti
LONG TERM...Leins
AVIATION...Leins/Blaes