580
FXUS62 KRAH 171756
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
155 PM EDT Sun Aug 17 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak back-door cold front will slip south into the area Monday
into Tuesday, followed by surface high pressure ridging southward
into the region as Hurricane Erin passes well offshore.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 155 PM Sunday...

* The afternoon analysis shows a cold front just south of the Great
  Lakes region. Central NC is on the east side of high pressure
  centered over the TN Valley.
* Just off the sfc, H8 analysis shows a pocket of drier air from
  roughly the I-95 corridor eastward and just offshore.  Mixing of
  this drier air is resulting lower humidity and clear(er) skies
  under that dry pocket.
* Widely scattered showers/tstms currently along and/or just east of
  the mountains are developing in the relatively higher dwpt airmass
  along an axis of moisture convergence due to the background NW
  flow and resulting lee trough.  It`s possible that some of these
  cells may reach our north/northwest Piedmont zones before
  dissipating... dissipating thanks to the large-scale subsident
  region over our state as noted on current water vapor imagery.
  Will include a ~15 PoP for the aforementioned zones late this
  afternoon through mid-evening hours.
* Fog potential Monday morning appears lower than in recent nights.
* Lows overnight will settle in the lower 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 155 PM Sunday...

* The cold front currently just south of the Great Lakes region will
  drift south across VA and make a close approach to the NC/VA
  border or push into NC in backdoor fashion before stalling.
* Odds are increasing that a cluster of showers/tstms assoc with
  lift provided by the front or a prefrontal trough will develop
  somewhere across our CWA during the afternoon and persist into the
  evening Monday.  The challenge is exactly where, since the trough
  position is not well-agreed upon by the models. The GFS shows
  decent coverage across much of our CWA while the mesoscale models
  are more focused across the eastern half of our CWA. Given these
  uncertainties, the NBM provides a generous 30 PoP across most of
  our CWA between 18 and 00Z tomorrow and is a good option given the
  uncertainties.
* It`s worth noting that despite the above PoP discussion, it won`t
  be raining the entire day...rather it will be mainly confined to
  afternoon and evening hours and when the activity moves across
  your area.
* Temps on Monday will be slightly above average with highs in the
  upper 80s north to low 90s south. Lows are expected to be in the
  upper 60s north to low 70s south.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 150 PM Sunday...

* Mostly dry weather expected through Thursday as Hurricane Erin
  passes offshore.

* Unsettled weather may return next weekend.


A weak front settling south through NC late Monday may be spark for
scattered showers and storms on Tuesday, with some enhancement in
the coastal plain as the seabreeze may be slightly enhanced by
ENErly winds on the periphery of Hurricane Erin (well east of
Florida Tuesday).  However the overall trend is for mostly dry
weather into Wednesday and Thursday under increased subsidence as
Erin pass east of our area and poses no inland risk. The only real
sensible impact will be slightly gustier winds in the coastal plain,
perhaps to 20mph. Erin is forecast to turn quickly northeast and
race away from NC on Thursday.

A weak trough and associated surface boundary are then forecast to
settle into the region from the northwest as Erin departs to the
northeast. The weak front will then lift back north, with moisture
and storms chances increasing each day through the weekend into
early next week as a deeper trough evolves over the eastern US.
Temperatures will be 5 to 6 degrees below average with highs ranging
from the low to mid 80s and overnight lows in the upper 60s to near
70.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 108 PM Sunday...

24 hour TAF period: High confidence VFR conditions will prevail
through at least midnight. Cu field could become broken this aft/eve
before scattering out again. There could still be some showers
developing and sliding sewd across the area tonight, but coverage
and chances remain too low to include at this time. Instead, have
included some mid-level cigs overnight/early Mon when/where a shower
would be most likely. Some hi-res guidance hints at some 6-10 SM
vsbys near the eastern three terminals, but fog potential remains
much lower than previous nights.

Outlook: Daily chances for diurnally driven showers and storms will
return this week, with morning stratus or fog also possible.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...np
NEAR TERM...np
SHORT TERM...np
LONG TERM..BLS
AVIATION...KC/CBL