311
FXUS62 KRAH 061153
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
753 AM EDT Sun Sep 6 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

* Locally dense fog centered over the ern Sandhills and srn and cntl
  Coastal Plain will disperse through around 9 AM.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 300 AM Sunday...

1) Locally dense fog and probably widespread low overcast this
morning, then showers and isolated storms focused over the Piedmont
and Sandhills this afternoon

2) Several days of near normal temperatures starting today, followed
by an increase back above normal mid/late week

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 300 AM Sunday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... Locally dense fog and probably widespread low
overcast this morning, then showers and isolated storms focused over
the Piedmont and Sandhills this afternoon

Cyclonic, nnwly flow aloft will prevail across the Middle and South
Atlantic states through tonight, between a slow-moving cyclone over
the Canadian Maritimes and a ridge over the srn High Plains. Within
that nnwly flow regime, at least a couple of impulses over the mid
and upr MS Valley will progress across the Southeast.

At the surface, a synoptic front was analyzed at 06Z from far nern
NC nwwd across srn VA, then generally wwd through KY and srn MO.
This boundary will continue to settle swwd, in backdoor fashion,
though NC today.

Light wind, initially clear skies, and abundant near surface and
soil moisture will favor the development of areas of low stratus and
fog/mist this morning. While related ceilings and visibility
restrictions will lift and disperse through midday, an area of
deeper, 850-700 mb centered moisture stretching across the Virginias
and lwr Oh Valley will progress ssewd into cntl NC through the
afternoon. This area of moisture will coincide with the progression
of the backdoor surface cold front and result in the development and
deepening of showers and isolated storms, focused over the Piedmont
and adjacent Sandhills, where diurnal timing will allow for
relatively stronger heating and destabilization. An isolated strong
to severe storm or two will be possible over the far wrn/srn
Piedmont during the afternoon, before the front and moisture and
instability axes continue wswwd into the Upstate of SC and far swrn
NC tonight.


KEY MESSAGE 2... Several days of near normal temperatures starting
today, followed by an increase back above normal mid/late week

Temperatures today through Tuesday should remain near normal as a
mid/upper level longwave trough slowly shifts off the east coast.
Cooler and drier air should filter into the region from the north
through the day today, allowing high temperatures this afternoon to
rise into the low 80s north to the upper 80s south. Temperatures
should remain in the 80s through at least Tuesday. As ridging starts
to build over the region mid-week, highs should return to the 90s on
Wednesday or Thursday. The chance of rain early this week after
today will be generally low each day, with an isolated diurnal
thunderstorm possible each afternoon/evening especially late week as
warming is occurring and moisture is returning to the region. It
looks like another cold front may pass through central NC Thursday
night which brings the next best chance of showers to the region.
Temperatures may then cool off a few degrees, potentially back into
the 80s, for next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 750 AM Sunday...

Variable flight restrictions this morning, ranging from VLIFR at FAY
to generally IFR and MVFR at Piedmont sites and RWI, should lift and
scatter to low VFR between 15-19Z. Scattered to locally numerous
showers and isolated storms will also probably develop along and
near a backdoor cold front that will settle swwd across the forecast
area through this afternoon-early evening. Areas of IFR-MVFR
ceilings and lingering showers/light rain will be possible mainly
just to the west of INT/GSO late tonight-Mon morning.

Outlook: High pressure over the Middle Atlantic will favor mainly
VFR conditions through mid week.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MWS/LBH
AVIATION...MWS