924
FXUS62 KRAH 070536
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
135 AM EDT Wed May 7 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Weak high pressure will build over our region today and linger
through tonight. A cold front will approach by late Thursday and
Friday increasing the chance of rain.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 823 PM Tuesday...

Weak high pressure will settle into the region, resulting in light
winds and favorable radiational cooling through the 1st half of the
night. However, the arrival of weak shortwave perturbations
spreading into the SE US from the lower MS Valley and mid south
will lead to an increase in high clouds during the predawn hours.
Any fog development should by isolated/patchy at best.

Lows in the lower to mid 50s, with some upper 40s in the typically
cooler locations.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 200 PM Tuesday...

Aloft, shortwave energy from the TN valley and parts of the SE US
will track into SC and southern parts of NC between the late-morning
and early evening hours. This is tied to a trough over KS/MO. At the
surface, weak high pressure will be situated over the region.
Increasing mid to high clouds are expected from the aforementioned
shortwave to our southwest, which could temper highs, but still
expecting highs upper 70s to low 80s, just slightly above normal.
The energy could favor some very low-end spotty light rain across
the southern Piedmont and Sandhills during the aftn/eve. However,
forecast soundings show a fairly dry sub-cloud layer and most
guidance has little measurable precipitation. We have kept slight
chances in these areas but most of the day should be dry. High
clouds will persist Wed night, along with correspondingly warmer
lows in the upper 50s to low 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 125 PM Tuesday...

* Warm Thu, with a chance of showers/storms that will linger through
  at least early Fri
* Cooler, stable, and with lower humidity this weekend, with just a
  low chance of stratiform rain mainly across srn zones
* Increasing rain chances and probable CAD over the Piedmont by Mon

Model guidance into early next week remains in relatively good
agreement in the medium range with respect to the synoptic pattern,
although the finer details remain largely uncertain. A northern
stream mid/upper-level shortwave trough will dig generally southward
through the Great Lakes on Thurs, and after several interactions
with pre-existing disturbances, will result in a pair of closed
lows; one over the northern Mid-Atlantic and the other eventually
becoming a cutoff low centered over the central Gulf coast Fri
evening.

A weakly unstable environment will be in place from the Southeast
and into the Carolinas on Thurs and may result in scattered
showers/storms during the afternoon; although predicated on the
absence of thick overcast and decaying upstream MCSs which would
limit diurnal insolation. If deep convection where to develop,
moderate shear would result in storm organization and potential
severe risk, but predictability is too low at this time to warrant
any risk levels. A weak surface low over the Carolinas Thurs will
lift north along the Mid-Atlantic coast into Fri afternoon and will
sweep a cold front through the area late Fri morning into the
afternoon. Showers/storms will be possible along and ahead of the
front, but best chances towards the NC/SC border and Coastal Plain
where marginal instability may be present.

After a period of cooler and drier weather this weekend, the cutoff
low over the northern Gulf states is expected to lift generally
northeastward Mon and over the Mid-Atlantic by midweek. An
elongated, but progressive, surface high to our northeast Mon may
set the stage for a hybrid CAD regime as WAA and moist isentropic
upglide brings steady rain to the area. There still remains some
uncertainty on the strength and positioning of key features which
will determine when/if CAD develops, but a period of wet weather
early next week is becoming increasingly likely.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 133 AM Wednesday...

High confidence in VFR conditions for much of the 24 hr TAF period
at all terminals as weak high pressure builds over NC. Mostly high
and mid level clouds will spread into the region from the southwest
this afternoon and tonight ahead of low pressure along the Gulf
Coast.

Outlook: Generally VFR to MVFR conditions with scattered showers and
storms possible both Thursday and Friday. Another system may
increase rain chances and lower CIGS/VSBYS again later in the
weekend or early next week.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Badgett/Kren
NEAR TERM...CBL
SHORT TERM...Kren
LONG TERM...Swiggett/MWS
AVIATION...Badgett/Luchetti