465
FXUS62 KRAH 210644
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
244 AM EDT Thu Aug 21 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Hurricane Erin will continue to move north just off and parallel to
the Carolina coast today. A cold front will move southeast across
the southern Appalachians early this morning before stalling across
southern Georgia and South Carolina on Friday. Another cold front
will move across the region on Monday with a refreshing fall-like
air mass arriving by the middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 244 AM Thursday...

Sfc analysis this morning depicted primarily nnwly flow over central
NC. Hurricane Erin continues to slowly ease north just off the Outer
Banks.  Further upstream, a sfc cold front remained semi-stationary
over the Blue Ridge mountains and up through the mid-Atlantic. As
Erin pulls north today, this upstream front should slide south into
our area through Friday morning. This will promote a drying trend
through tonight as subsidence on the backside of the TC spreads over
central NC. However, the latest HREF does depict at least some
chance for a few showers/storms in our western Piedmont associated
with the sagging front and lift from a weak mid-level vorticity
lobe. Overall coverage, however, should be limited today. Any
lingering showers/storm should largely dissipate with time tonight.

The strongest gusts associated with Erin should remain well to our
east. However, those east of I-95 could experience a few gusts of up
to 20 or 25 mph later this morning through early afternoon.
Otherwise, expect highs to reach the lower to mid 80s today.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 244 AM Thursday...

The front will remain stalled to our south on Friday, with generally
dry weather expected across central NC. A few stray showers/storms
could be possible across the NC/SC border, but think the better
chances for rain are down in SC/GA on Friday (where PWAT will remain
high; PWAT drops to 1.25 to 1.5 inches over our region by Friday
evening. Otherwise, expect highs to reach the lower 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 144 AM Thursday...

* Dry Saturday, increasing precip chances on Sunday

* A cold front will move through the area Monday, ushering in cooler
  and drier air through the middle of the week.

Weak high pressure to our northeast will remain in place on
Saturday. As the high retreats offshore through the day, surface
flow will take on an increasingly southeasterly component, with
elevated dewpoints making their way back into the southern Coastal
Plain and Sandhills. Some isolated showers can`t be ruled out in
these areas during the afternoon hours, but areal coverage and
amounts should be fairly limited. Highs in the low to mid 80s, with
lows in the low to mid 60s.

On Sunday, a stalled boundary to our south will drift into NC. A
wave along this front is likely to develop and quickly move
offshore, ultimately yielding minimal precip chances across our
area. However at the same time, large scale forcing for ascent
associated with a longwave trough over the Great Lakes will allow
for increasing shower/storm chances later in the day. Highest
shower/storm chances should be across the western Piedmont during
the afternoon hours (40-50 PoPs), with much lower chances to the
east (20-30 PoPs). The attendant surface cold front is likely to
move through the area late Sunday into Monday, with precip chances
decreasing from west to east through the evening/overnight hours. If
the front moves through fast enough, Monday may be completely dry
across central NC but there are enough ensemble members showing
precip that at least 15-20 percent PoPs are warranted from the
Triangle eastward through Monday afternoon. The cooler/drier post-
frontal airmass should arrive Monday night, with below normal temps
much lower dewpoints, and near zero precip chances forecast Tuesday
and Wednesday.

In terms of temperatures: Sunday should be mild with highs in the
mid/upper 80s. Despite the frontal passage on Monday, the cooler
temps are likely to be held up west of the mountains and not arrive
in NC until after sunset. As such, Monday will also be mild with
highs in the mid/upper 80s. It will be a different story Tuesday and
Wednesday when highs will range from the mid 70s (NW) to around 80
(SE). Overnight lows in the post-frontal airmass are likely to fall
into the upper 50s/lower 60s, with even cooler temps forecast
Wednesday night along the NC/VA border where lower 50s may be in the
cards.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 144 AM Thursday...

Another round of MVFR/IFR stratus is expected again this morning,
with the lowest cigs forecast at INT/GSO/RDU. Lower confidence on
how low cigs will get at FAY/RWI but MVFR appears to be a safe bet
based on 00Z HREF and upstream surface obs. FAY/RWI are likely to
see at least some degree or breezy winds given Erin`s proximity off
the coast, with occasional gusts to around 25kts possible this
morning. Winds should relax a bit by early afternoon as Erin
continues to trek away from NC.

In terms of precip chances, CAMS highlight some isolated convection
in the western Piedmont later this afternoon, primarily affecting
areas west of INT but a stray shower can`t be ruled out there. Will
include a few hours of PROB30 for -SHRA late this afternoon but not
overly confident they will take a direct hit.

Outlook: Generally dry, VFR conditions expected through Monday.
However, early morning MVFR/IFR stratus will be possible again Fri,
with borderline VFR/MVFR cigs possible Sat and Sun morning. Cannot
completely rule out an aft shower near the Triad Sat-Mon, but
chances are low.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Leins/Blaes
NEAR TERM...Luchetti
SHORT TERM...Luchetti
LONG TERM...Leins
AVIATION...Leins/KC