Soaring Guidance
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO
047
UXUS97 KPUB 041220
SRGPUB
Soaring Forecast
National Weather Service Pueblo, Colorado
0520 MST Tuesday, February 4, 2025
This forecast is for the Air Force Academy for Tuesday, February 4, 2025:
If the trigger temperature of 62.1 F/16.7 C is reached...then
Thermal Soaring Index....................... Poor
Maximum rate of lift........................ 0 ft/min (0.0 m/s)
Maximum height of thermals.................. 8717 ft MSL (1099 ft AGL)
Forecast maximum temperature................... 58.0 F/14.9 C
Time of trigger temperature.................... None
Time of overdevelopment........................ None
Middle/high clouds during soaring window....... Overcast opaque high
Surface winds during soaring window............ Between 20 mph and 30 mph
Height of the -3 thermal index................. 8142 ft MSL (524 ft AGL)
Thermal soaring outlook for Wednesday 02/05.... Good
Wave Soaring Index............................. Not available
Remarks...
Sunrise/Sunset.................... 07:02:15 / 17:24:14 MST
Total possible sunshine........... 10 hr 21 min 59 sec (621 min 59 sec)
Altitude of sun at 12:13:15 MST... 34.96 degrees
Upper air data from numerical model forecast valid on 02/04/2025 at 0500 MST
Freezing level.................. 13615 ft MSL (5997 ft AGL)
Convective condensation level... 20599 ft MSL (12981 ft AGL)
Lifted condensation level....... 17240 ft MSL (9621 ft AGL)
Lifted index.................... +5.3
K index......................... +7.8
Height Temperature Wind Wind Spd Lapse Rate ConvectionT Thermal Lift Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft deg C deg F Index fpm m/s
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
50000 -63.7 -82.7 280 51 26 2.9 1.6 M M M M M
45000 -59.5 -75.1 280 63 32 1.7 0.9 M M M M M
40000 -57.1 -70.8 255 67 35 1.7 0.9 M M M M M
38000 -55.3 -67.5 250 65 33 3.0 1.6 M M M M M
36000 -53.4 -64.1 250 60 31 3.0 1.7 M M M M M
34000 -49.9 -57.8 250 57 29 8.9 4.9 M M M M M
32000 -44.5 -48.1 250 57 29 9.0 4.9 M M M M M
30000 -39.4 -38.9 250 56 29 8.2 4.5 28.7 83.7 11.0 M M
29000 -36.9 -34.4 250 55 28 8.2 4.5 28.1 82.6 10.7 M M
28000 -34.5 -30.1 250 54 28 8.2 4.5 27.6 81.6 10.4 M M
27000 -32.0 -25.6 250 54 28 8.6 4.7 27.1 80.7 10.1 M M
26000 -29.4 -20.9 250 53 27 8.6 4.7 26.6 79.8 9.8 M M
25000 -26.9 -16.4 250 52 27 8.6 4.7 26.2 79.1 9.6 M M
24000 -24.3 -11.7 250 50 26 8.9 4.9 25.8 78.5 9.4 M M
23000 -21.6 -6.9 250 43 22 8.9 4.9 25.4 77.8 9.2 M M
22000 -18.3 -0.9 245 35 18 9.0 4.9 25.1 77.2 9.1 M M
21000 -16.2 2.8 240 34 17 5.5 3.0 24.1 75.4 8.3 M M
20000 -14.6 5.7 245 36 18 5.5 3.0 22.6 72.7 7.0 M M
19500 -13.8 7.2 245 37 19 5.5 3.0 21.9 71.5 6.4 M M
19000 -13.0 8.6 245 38 20 5.9 3.3 21.3 70.3 5.8 M M
18500 -12.0 10.4 245 39 20 6.8 3.8 20.7 69.3 5.4 M M
18000 -11.0 12.2 240 40 21 6.7 3.7 20.2 68.4 4.9 M M
17500 -9.9 14.2 240 41 21 8.5 4.7 19.9 67.7 4.6 M M
17000 -8.7 16.3 240 42 22 8.6 4.7 19.6 67.4 4.4 M M
16500 -7.4 18.7 240 43 22 8.8 4.8 19.5 67.0 4.3 M M
16000 -6.0 21.2 240 42 22 9.0 5.0 19.3 66.8 4.2 M M
15500 -4.6 23.7 240 42 22 9.0 4.9 19.2 66.6 4.2 M M
15000 -3.3 26.1 240 42 22 8.1 4.4 19.0 66.2 4.0 M M
14500 -2.1 28.2 240 42 22 8.2 4.5 18.8 65.8 3.8 M M
14000 -0.9 30.4 240 42 22 7.4 4.1 18.5 65.3 3.6 M M
13500 0.2 32.4 245 42 21 7.3 4.0 18.1 64.6 3.2 M M
13000 1.4 34.5 245 41 21 10.2 5.6 17.9 64.2 3.0 M M
12500 2.7 36.9 245 40 21 6.9 3.8 17.7 63.9 2.8 M M
12000 3.8 38.8 245 39 20 7.6 4.2 17.3 63.2 2.4 M M
11750 4.3 39.7 245 37 19 7.8 4.3 17.2 62.9 2.3 M M
11500 4.9 40.8 245 35 18 8.4 4.6 17.0 62.7 2.1 M M
11250 5.5 41.9 245 33 17 8.9 4.9 17.0 62.5 2.0 M M
11000 6.2 43.2 245 31 16 7.9 4.4 16.9 62.4 1.9 M M
10750 6.7 44.1 245 32 17 7.2 4.0 16.7 62.0 1.8 M M
10500 7.2 45.0 245 33 17 7.5 4.1 16.5 61.7 1.6 M M
10250 7.8 46.0 245 33 17 8.2 4.5 16.3 61.4 1.4 M M
10000 8.4 47.1 245 32 17 8.1 4.5 16.2 61.2 1.3 M M
9750 9.0 48.2 245 32 16 7.8 4.3 16.1 61.0 1.2 M M
9500 9.6 49.3 240 31 16 7.6 4.2 15.9 60.7 1.0 M M
9250 10.2 50.4 240 30 16 8.7 4.7 15.8 60.4 0.9 M M
9000 10.8 51.4 240 31 16 6.1 3.3 15.7 60.2 0.8 M M
8750 11.0 51.8 240 30 15 1.7 1.0 15.2 59.3 0.3 M M
8500 11.3 52.3 240 28 15 6.6 3.6 14.7 58.4 -0.2 63 0.3
8250 11.5 52.7 240 27 14 -8.5 -4.7 14.2 57.6 -0.7 48 0.2
8000 9.6 49.3 240 25 13 -38.4 -21.1 11.6 52.8 -3.3 97 0.5
7750 6.3 43.3 240 16 8 -43.3 -23.8 7.6 45.6 -7.4 188 1.0
7500 M M M M M M M M M M M M
7250 M M M M M M M M M M M M
7000 M M M M M M M M M M M M
6750 M M M M M M M M M M M M
* * * * * * Numerical weather prediction model forecast data valid * * * * * *
02/04/2025 at 0800 MST | 02/04/2025 at 1100 MST
|
CAPE... 0.0 LI... +3.4 | CAPE... 0.0 LI... +4.3
CINH... 0.0 K Index... +3.0 | CINH... 0.0 K Index... -0.5
|
Height Temperature Wnd WndSpd Lapse Rate | Temperature Wnd WndSpd Lapse Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft | deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
50000 -63.6 -82.5 275 65 34 3.1 1.7 | -63.1 -81.6 270 66 34 3.1 1.7
45000 -59.1 -74.4 275 73 38 2.6 1.4 | -58.4 -73.1 270 76 39 3.3 1.8
40000 -55.2 -67.4 260 66 34 2.5 1.4 | -53.3 -63.9 260 72 37 3.4 1.9
38000 -54.0 -65.2 250 64 33 1.5 0.8 | -52.8 -63.0 255 70 36 0.2 0.1
36000 -53.1 -63.6 245 64 33 1.5 0.8 | -52.7 -62.9 245 70 36 0.2 0.1
34000 -50.2 -58.4 240 62 32 8.7 4.8 | -50.6 -59.1 240 67 34 8.0 4.4
32000 -44.9 -48.8 240 60 31 8.7 4.8 | -45.9 -50.6 240 59 30 7.9 4.4
30000 -40.0 -40.0 240 58 30 7.7 4.2 | -40.8 -41.4 240 54 28 9.1 5.0
29000 -37.7 -35.9 245 56 29 7.7 4.2 | -38.1 -36.6 240 53 28 9.1 5.0
28000 -35.4 -31.7 245 55 28 7.7 4.2 | -35.3 -31.5 245 53 27 9.1 5.0
27000 -32.9 -27.2 245 53 27 9.1 5.0 | -32.7 -26.9 245 52 27 8.4 4.6
26000 -30.2 -22.4 245 49 25 9.1 5.0 | -30.2 -22.4 240 50 26 8.4 4.6
25000 -27.5 -17.5 245 46 24 9.1 5.0 | -27.6 -17.7 240 49 25 8.4 4.6
24000 -24.7 -12.5 245 43 22 9.4 5.2 | -24.4 -11.9 235 47 24 9.4 5.2
23000 -21.2 -6.2 240 39 20 9.4 5.2 | -21.5 -6.7 240 45 23 9.4 5.2
22000 -18.4 -1.1 235 36 18 9.4 5.2 | -18.7 -1.7 240 44 23 9.4 5.2
21000 -16.0 3.2 235 35 18 6.9 3.8 | -16.1 3.0 240 42 22 7.5 4.1
20000 -13.9 7.0 235 36 19 6.9 3.8 | -13.9 7.0 245 41 21 7.5 4.1
19500 -12.9 8.8 240 37 19 6.9 3.8 | -12.7 9.1 245 41 21 7.4 4.1
19000 -11.9 10.6 240 38 19 6.5 3.6 | -11.6 11.1 245 40 21 7.0 3.8
18500 -11.0 12.2 240 39 20 5.6 3.1 | -10.8 12.6 245 40 21 4.5 2.5
18000 -10.2 13.6 240 40 21 5.5 3.0 | -10.2 13.6 245 40 21 4.6 2.5
17500 -9.3 15.3 240 41 21 7.3 4.0 | -9.4 15.1 245 40 21 6.1 3.3
17000 -8.2 17.2 240 41 21 7.4 4.1 | -8.5 16.7 250 40 20 6.4 3.5
16500 -7.1 19.2 240 42 22 7.7 4.2 | -7.5 18.5 250 40 20 6.8 3.7
16000 -5.9 21.4 240 42 22 8.1 4.4 | -6.4 20.5 250 39 20 7.6 4.2
15500 -4.7 23.5 245 42 22 8.1 4.4 | -5.3 22.5 250 39 20 7.6 4.2
15000 -3.5 25.7 245 42 22 7.7 4.2 | -4.2 24.4 250 38 20 7.3 4.0
14500 -2.4 27.7 245 42 21 7.8 4.3 | -3.1 26.4 255 38 19 7.4 4.1
14000 -1.3 29.7 245 41 21 7.2 3.9 | -2.0 28.4 255 37 19 7.1 3.9
13500 -0.2 31.6 245 41 21 7.1 3.9 | -1.0 30.2 255 37 19 7.1 3.9
13000 0.9 33.6 250 40 21 8.4 4.6 | 0.1 32.2 255 36 19 8.5 4.7
12500 1.9 35.4 250 39 20 5.4 3.0 | 1.1 34.0 255 35 18 5.4 2.9
12000 2.7 36.9 250 36 19 6.6 3.6 | 2.0 35.6 255 33 17 6.2 3.4
11750 3.2 37.8 250 34 18 7.4 4.0 | 2.4 36.3 255 32 17 6.8 3.7
11500 3.8 38.8 250 32 17 7.3 4.0 | 2.9 37.2 255 31 16 6.5 3.6
11250 4.3 39.7 250 29 15 7.6 4.1 | 3.4 38.1 255 29 15 6.2 3.4
11000 4.8 40.6 250 27 14 7.4 4.1 | 3.8 38.8 255 28 14 6.8 3.7
10750 5.4 41.7 250 27 14 7.3 4.0 | 4.3 39.7 260 28 14 7.3 4.0
10500 5.9 42.6 250 27 14 7.5 4.1 | 4.8 40.6 260 28 15 7.2 4.0
10250 6.5 43.7 250 27 14 8.9 4.9 | 5.4 41.7 260 28 15 7.3 4.0
10000 7.2 45.0 250 26 13 8.8 4.9 | 5.9 42.6 260 28 14 7.9 4.3
9750 7.8 46.0 250 26 13 8.1 4.4 | 6.5 43.7 260 27 14 8.5 4.6
9500 8.4 47.1 250 25 13 8.1 4.4 | 7.1 44.8 260 26 13 8.1 4.4
9250 9.1 48.4 250 25 13 8.8 4.8 | 7.7 45.9 260 25 13 8.9 4.9
9000 9.7 49.5 250 24 12 7.0 3.9 | 8.4 47.1 255 24 12 8.6 4.7
8750 10.1 50.2 250 23 12 3.6 1.9 | 9.0 48.2 255 21 11 7.0 3.8
8500 10.4 50.7 250 22 11 8.5 4.7 | 9.6 49.3 255 19 10 9.2 5.1
8250 10.8 51.4 250 21 11 -7.8 -4.3 | 10.1 50.2 250 17 9 2.0 1.1
8000 9.0 48.2 245 20 10 -34.5 -19.0 | 9.9 49.8 245 15 8 -1.7 -1.0
7750 6.4 43.5 245 13 7 -30.9 -16.9 | 10.2 50.4 240 10 5 13.3 7.3
7500 M M M M M M M | M M M M M M M
7250 M M M M M M M | M M M M M M M
7000 M M M M M M M | M M M M M M M
6750 M M M M M M M | M M M M M M M
02/04/2025 at 1400 MST | 02/04/2025 at 1700 MST
|
CAPE... 0.0 LI... +3.3 | CAPE... 0.0 LI... +2.5
CINH... 0.0 K Index... -4.1 | CINH... 0.0 K Index... +6.7
|
Height Temperature Wnd WndSpd Lapse Rate | Temperature Wnd WndSpd Lapse Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft | deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
50000 -63.7 -82.7 270 67 34 3.4 1.9 | -64.1 -83.4 275 70 36 3.6 2.0
45000 -58.4 -73.1 270 74 38 4.6 2.5 | -58.4 -73.1 275 78 40 5.5 3.0
40000 -51.0 -59.8 260 78 40 4.9 2.7 | -49.6 -57.3 270 80 41 5.9 3.2
38000 -51.0 -59.8 255 74 38 -1.2 -0.6 | -49.1 -56.4 260 75 39 -0.3 -0.2
36000 -51.7 -61.1 245 70 36 -1.1 -0.6 | -49.3 -56.7 250 73 38 -0.3 -0.2
34000 -50.3 -58.5 235 66 34 7.4 4.1 | -48.3 -54.9 240 72 37 4.9 2.7
32000 -45.9 -50.6 235 60 31 7.3 4.0 | -45.4 -49.7 230 67 35 4.8 2.6
30000 -40.9 -41.6 235 56 29 9.8 5.4 | -41.5 -42.7 230 63 32 9.7 5.3
29000 -38.0 -36.4 240 56 29 9.8 5.4 | -38.6 -37.5 230 60 31 9.7 5.3
28000 -35.1 -31.2 240 56 29 9.8 5.4 | -35.7 -32.3 230 57 29 9.7 5.3
27000 -32.3 -26.1 240 56 29 8.5 4.6 | -33.0 -27.4 230 55 28 7.1 3.9
26000 -29.7 -21.5 240 57 29 8.6 4.7 | -30.8 -23.4 235 53 27 7.2 4.0
25000 -27.2 -17.0 245 59 30 8.6 4.7 | -28.6 -19.5 240 51 26 7.3 4.0
24000 -24.1 -11.4 245 58 30 7.3 4.0 | -26.4 -15.5 245 50 26 8.2 4.5
23000 -21.9 -7.4 240 55 28 7.4 4.1 | -23.2 -9.8 245 48 25 8.7 4.8
22000 -19.7 -3.5 235 52 27 7.4 4.1 | -20.6 -5.1 250 46 24 8.7 4.8
21000 -17.3 0.9 235 49 25 8.0 4.4 | -18.2 -0.8 250 45 23 7.6 4.2
20000 -14.9 5.2 240 46 24 8.1 4.4 | -15.9 3.4 250 45 23 7.6 4.2
19500 -13.7 7.3 240 45 23 8.1 4.4 | -14.7 5.5 250 45 23 7.6 4.2
19000 -12.4 9.7 245 44 23 8.0 4.4 | -13.6 7.5 250 45 23 7.7 4.2
18500 -11.4 11.5 245 43 22 5.9 3.2 | -12.6 9.3 250 45 23 6.4 3.5
18000 -10.5 13.1 245 43 22 6.1 3.4 | -11.6 11.1 250 44 23 6.5 3.5
17500 -9.6 14.7 245 43 22 6.0 3.3 | -10.6 12.9 250 44 23 6.6 3.6
17000 -8.7 16.3 250 41 21 6.0 3.3 | -9.6 14.7 250 42 22 6.7 3.7
16500 -7.9 17.8 250 39 20 6.1 3.4 | -8.6 16.5 250 40 21 6.7 3.7
16000 -6.9 19.6 250 38 20 6.8 3.7 | -7.6 18.3 250 39 20 6.8 3.8
15500 -5.9 21.4 255 37 19 6.8 3.8 | -6.6 20.1 250 38 20 6.8 3.7
15000 -4.9 23.2 255 36 19 6.8 3.7 | -5.6 21.9 255 37 19 7.2 3.9
14500 -3.9 25.0 260 35 18 6.8 3.7 | -4.5 23.9 255 37 19 7.2 3.9
14000 -2.9 26.8 260 33 17 6.9 3.8 | -3.5 25.7 255 36 18 7.0 3.8
13500 -1.9 28.6 265 32 16 7.0 3.8 | -2.4 27.7 260 33 17 6.9 3.8
13000 -0.8 30.6 265 30 15 8.6 4.7 | -1.4 29.5 260 31 16 7.6 4.1
12500 0.3 32.5 265 29 15 5.5 3.0 | -0.3 31.5 260 28 14 6.5 3.6
12000 1.1 34.0 270 26 14 6.7 3.7 | 0.7 33.3 260 24 12 7.1 3.9
11750 1.7 35.1 270 27 14 8.0 4.4 | 1.2 34.2 260 25 13 8.0 4.4
11500 2.2 36.0 270 27 14 7.0 3.8 | 1.8 35.2 260 26 13 7.4 4.1
11250 2.6 36.7 270 27 14 6.0 3.3 | 2.3 36.1 260 26 13 6.8 3.7
11000 3.1 37.6 270 26 13 7.0 3.8 | 2.8 37.0 260 25 13 7.5 4.1
10750 3.6 38.5 270 25 13 7.7 4.2 | 3.3 37.9 260 24 13 8.2 4.5
10500 4.2 39.6 265 24 12 7.9 4.3 | 3.9 39.0 260 23 12 8.3 4.5
10250 4.8 40.6 265 23 12 9.7 5.3 | 4.6 40.3 255 22 11 9.5 5.2
10000 5.5 41.9 265 21 11 9.9 5.4 | 5.3 41.5 255 21 11 9.7 5.3
9750 6.2 43.2 260 20 10 8.9 4.9 | 5.9 42.6 255 20 10 9.1 5.0
9500 6.8 44.2 260 19 10 8.8 4.8 | 6.6 43.9 250 19 10 8.7 4.7
9250 7.5 45.5 260 17 9 9.8 5.4 | 7.3 45.1 250 18 9 10.7 5.9
9000 8.2 46.8 260 15 8 9.6 5.3 | 8.1 46.6 250 18 9 9.8 5.4
8750 8.9 48.0 255 14 7 7.9 4.3 | 8.6 47.5 250 16 8 6.4 3.5
8500 9.5 49.1 255 13 7 9.5 5.2 | 9.2 48.6 245 15 8 9.3 5.1
8250 10.1 50.2 250 12 6 4.7 2.6 | 9.7 49.5 240 13 7 1.5 0.8
8000 10.2 50.4 245 10 5 0.2 0.1 | 9.2 48.6 240 13 7 -11.2 -6.2
7750 10.3 50.5 235 7 4 6.8 3.7 | 8.3 46.9 230 9 5 -9.6 -5.3
7500 M M M M M M M | M M M M M M M
7250 M M M M M M M | M M M M M M M
7000 M M M M M M M | M M M M M M M
6750 M M M M M M M | M M M M M M M
________________________________________________________________________________
This product is issued twice per day, once by approximately 0630 MST/0730 MDT
(1330 UTC). It is not continuously monitored nor updated after its initial
issuance.
The information contained herein is based on rawinsonde observation and/or
numerical weather prediction model data taken near the Air Force Academy
in Colorado Springs, Colorado at
North Latitude: 38 deg 58 min 48.000 sec
West Longitude: 104 deg 49 min 12.000 sec
Elevation: 6572 feet (2003 meters)
and may not be representative of other areas along the Front Range of the
Colorado Rocky Mountains. Note that some elevations in numerical weather
prediction models differ from actual station elevations, which can lead to
data which appear to be below ground. Erroneous data such as these should
not be used.
The content and format of this report as well as the issuance times are subject
to change without prior notice. Comments and suggestions are welcome and should
be directed to one of the addresses or phone numbers shown at the bottom of this
page. To expedite a response to comments, be sure to mention your interest in
the soaring forecast.
DEFINITIONS:
CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) - An integrated measure of the
energy available for convective development, also known as the positive
area on a thermodynamic diagram. Units are Joules per kilogram. Larger
values are indicative of greater instability and the possibility of
stronger convective activity, including thunderstorms. Values around or
greater than 1000 suggest the possibility of severe weather should
convective activity develop.
CIN (Convective Inhibition) - An integrated measure of the amount of energy
needed to initiate convective activity, also known as the negative area on
a thermodynamic diagram. Units are Joules per kilogram. The more negative
this number, the more energy is required to initiate convection. This
inhibitive energy can be overcome through surface heating, cooling aloft,
lifting mechanisms (orographic, frontal, gravity waves, etc.)
Convective Condensation Level - The height to which an air parcel possessing the
average saturation mixing ratio in the lowest 4000 feet of the airmass,
if heated sufficiently from below, will rise dry adiabatically until it
just becomes saturated. It estimates the base of cumulus clouds that are
produced by surface heating only.
Convection Temperature (ConvectionT) - The surface temperature required to make
the airmass dry adiabatic up to the given level. It can be considered a
"trigger temperature" for that level.
Freezing Level - The height where the temperature is zero degrees Celsius.
Height of Stable Layer - The height (between 12,000 and 18,000 feet above
mean sea level) where the smallest lapse rate exists. The location and
existence of this feature is important in the generation of mountain
waves.
K Index - A measure of stability which combines the temperature difference
between approximately 5,000 and 18,000 feet above the surface, the amount
of moisture at approximately 5,000 feet above the surface, and a measure
of the dryness at approximately 10,000 feet above the surface. Larger
positive numbers indicate more instability and a greater likelihood of
thunderstorm development. One interpretation of K index values regarding
soaring in the western United States is given in WMO Technical Note 158
and is reproduced in the following table:
below -10 no or weak thermals
-10 to 5 dry thermals or 1/8 cumulus with moderate thermals
5 to 15 good soaring conditions
15 to 20 good soaring conditions with occasional showers
20 to 30 excellent soaring conditions, but increasing
probability of showers and thunderstorms
above 30 more than 60 percent probability of thunderstorms
Lapse Rate - The change with height of the temperature. Negative values indicate
inversions.
Lifted Condensation Level - The height to which an air parcel possessing the
average dew point in the lowest 4000 feet of the airmass and the forecast
maximum temperature must be lifted dry adiabatically to attain saturation.
Lifted Index (LI) - The difference between the environmental temperature at a
level approximately 18,000 feet above the surface and the temperature of
an air parcel lifted dry adiabatically from the surface to its lifted
condensation level and then pseudoadiabatically thereafter to this same
level. The parcel`s initial temperature is the forecast maximum
temperature and its dew point is the average dew point in the lowest 4000
feet of the airmass. Negative values are indicative of instability with
positive values showing stable conditions.
Lift Rate - An experimental estimate of the strength of thermals. It is
computed the same way as the maximum rate of lift but uses the actual
level rather than the maximum height of thermals in the calculation.
Also, none of the empirical adjustments based on cloudiness and K-index
are applied to these calculations.
Maximum Height of Thermals - The height where the dry adiabat through the
forecast maximum temperature intersects the environmental temperature.
Maximum Rate of Lift - An estimate of the maximum strength of thermals. It
is computed from an empirical formula which combines the expected maximum
height of thermals with the difference in the environmental temperatures
between the maximum height of thermals and the temperature 4,000 feet
above the ground. After this computation, further empirical adjustments
are made based on the value of the K-index and the amount and opacity of
middle and high level cloudiness expected between the time of trigger
temperature and the time of overdevelopment.
Middle/High Clouds - The amount and opacity of middle (altostratus, altocumulus)
or high (cirrus, cirrostratus, cirrocumulus) clouds. Broken means that
between 60% and 90% of the sky is covered by the cloud, with overcast
conditions occurring when more than 90% of the sky is covered by the cloud.
Thin implies that the clouds are predominantly transparent, meaning that
some sunlight is reaching the ground, in contrast to opaque which suggests
that little sunlight is reaching the ground.
Potential Height of Wave - The minimum of the following two heights:
1. Level above the height of stable layer (or 14,000 feet if none exists)
where the wind direction changes by 30 degrees or more
2. Level above the height of stable layer (or 14,000 feet if none exists)
where the wind speed no longer increases with height
PVA/NVA - Positive vorticity advection (PVA)/negative vorticity advection (NVA)
on the 500 millibar isobaric surface (approximately 18,000 feet above mean
sea level). Weak PVA has been shown to assist in mountain wave soaring.
Soaring Window - The time between the time the trigger temperature is reached
and the time of overdevelopment.
Thermal Index - The difference between the environmental temperature and the
temperature at a particular level determined by following the dry adiabat
through the forecast maximum temperature up to that level. Negative values
are indicative of thermal lift.
Thermal Soaring Index - An adjective rating (for sailplanes) based on the
computed maximum rate of lift, and the wind speed and middle and high
cloud cover expected during the soaring window (the time of the trigger
temperature and the time of overdevelopment) according to the following:
Maximum rate of lift Adjective Rating
>= 800 fpm Excellent
>= 400 and < 800 fpm Good
>= 200 and < 400 fpm Fair
< 200 fpm Poor
Time of Overdevelopment - The time one or more of the following phenomena,
which essentially shut off thermal lift, is expected to occur:
1. formation of broken to overcast convective cloud cover
2. formation of scattered to numerous downbursts
3. initiation of widespread precipitation
Time of Trigger Temperature - The time the surface temperature is expected to
reach the trigger temperature.
Trigger Temperature - The surface temperature required to make the first 4000
feet of the atmosphere dry adiabatic.
Wave Soaring Index - An empirical, adjective rating (for sailplanes) which
attempts to combine a variety of phenomena important in mountain wave
soaring into a single index number. Objective points are assigned to
these phenomena: wind speed and direction at 14,000 ft MSL, the static
stability in the 12,000-18,000 ft MSL layer, the wind speed gradient above
the stable layer, jet stream location and frontal and upper trough
movements.
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