Soaring Guidance
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO
473
UXUS97 KPUB 211207
SRGPUB
Soaring Forecast
National Weather Service Pueblo, Colorado
0507 MST Friday, February 21, 2025
This forecast is for the Air Force Academy for Friday, February 21, 2025:
If the trigger temperature of 32.6 F/0.3 C is reached...then
Thermal Soaring Index....................... Fair
Maximum rate of lift........................ 247 ft/min (1.3 m/s)
Maximum height of thermals.................. 13018 ft MSL (5421 ft AGL)
Forecast maximum temperature................... 37.0 F/3.2 C
Time of trigger temperature.................... 1145 MST
Time of overdevelopment........................ None
Middle/high clouds during soaring window....... Broken/overcast thin middle
Surface winds during soaring window............ 20 mph or less
Height of the -3 thermal index................. 11028 ft MSL (3431 ft AGL)
Thermal soaring outlook for Saturday 02/22..... Poor
Wave Soaring Index............................. Not available
Remarks...
Sunrise/Sunset.................... 06:42:06 / 17:43:31 MST
Total possible sunshine........... 11 hr 1 min 26 sec (661 min 26 sec)
Altitude of sun at 12:12:49 MST... 40.67 degrees
Upper air data from numerical model forecast valid on 02/21/2025 at 0500 MST
Freezing level.................. Entire airmass below 32 F / 0 C
Convective condensation level... 12163 ft MSL (4566 ft AGL)
Lifted condensation level....... 12806 ft MSL (5209 ft AGL)
Lifted index.................... +3.3
K index......................... +13.8
Height Temperature Wind Wind Spd Lapse Rate ConvectionT Thermal Lift Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft deg C deg F Index fpm m/s
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
50000 -56.1 -69.0 265 38 20 1.7 0.9 M M M M M
45000 -53.6 -64.5 260 40 21 1.6 0.9 M M M M M
40000 -50.1 -58.2 265 35 18 2.4 1.3 M M M M M
38000 -48.9 -56.0 265 32 16 0.6 0.3 M M M M M
36000 -48.5 -55.3 265 28 15 0.6 0.3 M M M M M
34000 -48.2 -54.8 265 25 13 0.6 0.3 M M M M M
32000 -47.7 -53.9 275 11 6 0.9 0.5 M M M M M
30000 -47.1 -52.8 050 6 3 0.8 0.4 M M M M M
29000 -46.4 -51.5 055 12 6 3.0 1.6 20.2 68.4 13.5 M M
28000 -45.5 -49.9 055 17 9 3.0 1.6 17.5 63.6 11.6 M M
27000 -44.6 -48.3 055 23 12 3.0 1.7 15.0 59.1 9.7 M M
26000 -43.2 -45.8 050 26 13 7.6 4.2 13.1 55.7 8.3 M M
25000 -41.0 -41.8 045 24 12 7.4 4.0 12.2 53.9 7.6 M M
24000 -38.8 -37.8 035 23 12 7.4 4.0 11.3 52.4 7.0 M M
23000 -36.5 -33.7 030 22 12 8.2 4.5 10.6 51.1 6.5 M M
22000 -33.5 -28.3 025 22 11 8.1 4.5 9.8 49.7 5.9 M M
21000 -31.1 -24.0 020 22 12 8.2 4.5 9.3 48.8 5.6 M M
20000 -28.6 -19.5 015 20 10 8.3 4.5 8.8 47.8 5.1 M M
19500 -27.4 -17.3 015 19 10 8.3 4.5 8.5 47.3 4.9 M M
19000 -26.2 -15.2 010 17 9 8.3 4.5 8.3 46.9 4.7 M M
18500 -24.9 -12.8 010 16 8 8.3 4.5 8.1 46.5 4.6 M M
18000 -23.7 -10.7 010 15 8 7.8 4.3 7.8 46.0 4.3 M M
17500 -22.6 -8.7 005 14 7 7.9 4.3 7.5 45.4 4.0 M M
17000 -21.4 -6.5 005 13 7 7.6 4.2 7.1 44.9 3.8 M M
16500 -20.3 -4.5 005 12 6 7.6 4.2 6.8 44.2 3.4 M M
16000 -19.2 -2.6 010 12 6 7.4 4.1 6.4 43.6 3.1 M M
15500 -18.1 -0.6 010 12 6 7.2 3.9 6.0 42.8 2.7 M M
15000 -17.0 1.4 010 12 6 7.0 3.9 5.6 42.0 2.3 M M
14500 -16.1 3.0 010 13 6 6.4 3.5 5.1 41.1 1.9 M M
14000 -15.1 4.8 010 13 7 6.4 3.5 4.5 40.2 1.4 M M
13500 -14.3 6.3 015 14 7 4.9 2.7 3.9 38.9 0.7 M M
13000 -13.6 7.5 015 16 8 5.0 2.7 3.1 37.6 -0.0 447 2.3
12500 -12.9 8.8 015 17 9 4.3 2.3 2.3 36.1 -0.8 412 2.1
12000 -12.3 9.9 015 19 10 4.1 2.3 1.4 34.6 -1.6 378 1.9
11750 -11.9 10.6 015 20 10 4.6 2.5 1.0 33.8 -2.0 362 1.8
11500 -11.6 11.1 015 21 11 4.8 2.7 0.6 33.1 -2.4 344 1.7
11250 -11.2 11.8 015 21 11 6.4 3.5 0.3 32.5 -2.8 324 1.6
11000 -10.7 12.7 010 22 11 7.4 4.1 0.1 32.1 -3.0 301 1.5
10750 -10.2 13.6 010 23 12 5.2 2.8 -0.2 31.6 -3.2 279 1.4
10500 -9.9 14.2 010 23 12 3.9 2.1 -0.6 30.9 -3.7 263 1.3
10250 -9.6 14.7 010 24 12 4.7 2.6 -1.1 30.1 -4.1 246 1.3
10000 -9.2 15.4 010 24 12 4.5 2.5 -1.4 29.4 -4.5 228 1.2
9750 -8.9 16.0 005 24 13 3.1 1.7 -1.9 28.6 -5.0 212 1.1
9500 -8.7 16.3 005 25 13 2.3 1.3 -2.4 27.6 -5.5 199 1.0
9250 -8.5 16.7 360 25 13 3.3 1.8 -3.0 26.6 -6.1 186 0.9
9000 -8.3 17.1 360 25 13 3.9 2.1 -3.4 25.8 -6.5 170 0.9
8750 -8.0 17.6 355 24 12 3.0 1.7 -3.9 24.9 -7.0 155 0.8
8500 -7.8 18.0 345 23 12 3.3 1.8 -4.4 24.0 -7.6 141 0.7
8250 -7.6 18.3 340 22 12 1.9 1.0 -4.9 23.1 -8.1 127 0.6
8000 -7.4 18.7 335 22 11 4.7 2.6 -5.5 22.1 -8.7 115 0.6
7750 -6.7 19.9 330 16 8 13.3 7.3 -5.6 22.0 -8.8 87 0.4
7500 M M M M M M M M M M M M
7250 M M M M M M M M M M M M
7000 M M M M M M M M M M M M
6750 M M M M M M M M M M M M
* * * * * * Numerical weather prediction model forecast data valid * * * * * *
02/21/2025 at 0800 MST | 02/21/2025 at 1100 MST
|
CAPE... +0.4 LI... +1.4 | CAPE... +8.4 LI... +1.2
CINH... 0.0 K Index... +11.8 | CINH... 0.0 K Index... +10.5
|
Height Temperature Wnd WndSpd Lapse Rate | Temperature Wnd WndSpd Lapse Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft | deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
50000 -56.3 -69.3 275 33 17 1.6 0.9 | -56.5 -69.7 275 23 12 2.5 1.3
45000 -53.9 -65.0 265 35 18 1.5 0.8 | -52.8 -63.0 275 30 15 2.5 1.4
40000 -50.6 -59.1 265 25 13 2.3 1.3 | -50.4 -58.7 260 28 14 1.5 0.8
38000 -49.3 -56.7 265 21 11 0.9 0.5 | -49.7 -57.5 255 24 12 0.6 0.3
36000 -48.8 -55.8 285 17 9 0.9 0.5 | -49.3 -56.7 270 14 7 0.6 0.3
34000 -48.3 -54.9 305 15 8 0.9 0.5 | -49.0 -56.2 315 6 3 0.6 0.3
32000 -47.7 -53.9 350 11 6 1.0 0.6 | -48.3 -54.9 050 11 6 1.3 0.7
30000 -47.1 -52.8 035 16 8 1.0 0.6 | -47.5 -53.5 065 24 12 1.3 0.7
29000 -46.2 -51.2 045 19 10 3.4 1.9 | -47.0 -52.6 070 26 13 2.0 1.1
28000 -45.2 -49.4 050 22 11 3.4 1.9 | -46.4 -51.5 075 27 14 2.0 1.1
27000 -44.1 -47.4 050 25 13 3.4 1.9 | -45.8 -50.4 080 28 15 2.1 1.2
26000 -42.9 -45.2 055 27 14 5.3 2.9 | -44.3 -47.7 085 29 15 8.8 4.8
25000 -41.4 -42.5 050 26 13 5.2 2.9 | -41.7 -43.1 085 28 14 8.7 4.8
24000 -39.8 -39.6 045 25 13 5.2 2.9 | -39.1 -38.4 085 27 14 8.7 4.8
23000 -37.9 -36.2 040 24 12 9.1 5.0 | -35.9 -32.6 080 23 12 8.1 4.5
22000 -34.5 -30.1 040 24 12 8.9 4.9 | -33.5 -28.3 065 20 10 8.2 4.5
21000 -31.9 -25.4 035 23 12 8.8 4.8 | -31.0 -23.8 055 18 9 8.1 4.5
20000 -29.3 -20.7 030 24 12 8.5 4.7 | -28.6 -19.5 050 17 9 8.1 4.5
19500 -28.1 -18.6 030 24 12 8.5 4.7 | -27.4 -17.3 045 17 9 8.1 4.5
19000 -26.8 -16.2 030 24 12 8.5 4.7 | -26.2 -15.2 045 16 8 8.1 4.5
18500 -25.5 -13.9 025 24 12 8.4 4.6 | -25.0 -13.0 040 16 8 8.2 4.5
18000 -24.3 -11.7 025 24 12 7.9 4.4 | -23.7 -10.7 040 15 8 8.4 4.6
17500 -23.1 -9.6 020 23 12 8.0 4.4 | -22.5 -8.5 035 14 7 8.3 4.5
17000 -22.0 -7.6 020 22 11 7.6 4.2 | -21.1 -6.0 030 14 7 9.3 5.1
16500 -20.9 -5.6 015 21 11 7.6 4.2 | -19.8 -3.6 030 14 7 9.3 5.1
16000 -19.7 -3.5 015 19 10 7.4 4.1 | -18.4 -1.1 030 14 7 8.2 4.5
15500 -18.7 -1.7 010 18 9 7.2 4.0 | -17.3 0.9 025 15 8 7.8 4.3
15000 -17.6 0.3 010 17 9 6.7 3.7 | -16.1 3.0 020 15 8 6.7 3.7
14500 -16.8 1.8 010 17 9 5.4 3.0 | -15.3 4.5 015 15 8 5.3 2.9
14000 -16.0 3.2 010 16 8 5.4 3.0 | -14.6 5.7 010 14 7 5.0 2.8
13500 -15.2 4.6 010 17 9 5.6 3.1 | -13.9 7.0 360 14 7 4.4 2.4
13000 -14.3 6.3 010 19 10 5.6 3.1 | -13.2 8.2 355 15 8 4.5 2.5
12500 -13.5 7.7 015 20 10 5.9 3.2 | -12.5 9.5 355 15 8 4.2 2.3
12000 -12.6 9.3 015 22 11 5.7 3.1 | -12.0 10.4 355 16 8 3.5 1.9
11750 -12.2 10.0 010 22 12 6.6 3.6 | -11.8 10.8 350 17 9 3.5 1.9
11500 -11.7 10.9 010 23 12 7.2 3.9 | -11.5 11.3 350 19 10 3.6 2.0
11250 -11.2 11.8 010 23 12 5.7 3.1 | -11.3 11.7 350 20 10 2.8 1.6
11000 -10.8 12.6 010 24 12 4.5 2.4 | -11.1 12.0 350 22 11 2.8 1.5
10750 -10.5 13.1 010 25 13 4.2 2.3 | -10.8 12.6 355 23 12 3.9 2.2
10500 -10.2 13.6 005 25 13 3.9 2.1 | -10.5 13.1 355 24 12 3.7 2.0
10250 -9.9 14.2 005 26 13 4.1 2.3 | -10.3 13.5 355 25 13 5.0 2.7
10000 -9.6 14.7 005 26 14 3.7 2.0 | -9.8 14.4 355 26 13 6.6 3.6
9750 -9.4 15.1 005 27 14 3.3 1.8 | -9.3 15.3 355 26 13 6.4 3.5
9500 -9.1 15.6 360 28 14 2.7 1.5 | -8.9 16.0 355 26 13 6.5 3.6
9250 -8.9 16.0 360 28 14 4.8 2.6 | -8.4 16.9 355 25 13 6.2 3.4
9000 -8.5 16.7 355 28 15 5.2 2.9 | -7.9 17.8 355 25 13 8.4 4.6
8750 -8.2 17.2 355 28 14 3.6 2.0 | -7.2 19.0 350 23 12 10.3 5.6
8500 -7.9 17.8 350 27 14 4.0 2.2 | -6.4 20.5 345 22 11 9.8 5.4
8250 -7.6 18.3 345 26 13 4.2 2.3 | -5.7 21.7 345 21 11 9.8 5.4
8000 -7.2 19.0 340 24 12 9.1 5.0 | -4.8 23.4 340 20 10 16.4 9.0
7750 -6.2 20.8 340 18 9 15.8 8.7 | -3.1 26.4 340 17 9 27.8 15.2
7500 M M M M M M M | M M M M M M M
7250 M M M M M M M | M M M M M M M
7000 M M M M M M M | M M M M M M M
6750 M M M M M M M | M M M M M M M
02/21/2025 at 1400 MST | 02/21/2025 at 1700 MST
|
CAPE... 0.0 LI... +1.4 | CAPE... 0.0 LI... +1.2
CINH... 0.0 K Index... +9.3 | CINH... 0.0 K Index... +5.9
|
Height Temperature Wnd WndSpd Lapse Rate | Temperature Wnd WndSpd Lapse Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft | deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
50000 -56.9 -70.4 260 26 13 2.3 1.3 | -56.2 -69.2 270 31 16 1.7 1.0
45000 -53.4 -64.1 265 32 17 2.4 1.3 | -53.6 -64.5 275 35 18 1.8 1.0
40000 -51.1 -60.0 270 30 15 1.4 0.8 | -53.0 -63.4 280 30 16 0.3 0.2
38000 -50.6 -59.1 275 25 13 -0.6 -0.3 | -53.2 -63.8 290 22 12 -1.4 -0.7
36000 -51.0 -59.8 285 13 7 -0.6 -0.3 | -54.0 -65.2 350 10 5 -1.3 -0.7
34000 -51.3 -60.3 355 5 3 0.0 0.0 | -54.8 -66.6 055 21 11 1.5 0.8
32000 -50.1 -58.2 060 21 11 2.1 1.2 | -51.6 -60.9 055 32 17 5.5 3.0
30000 -48.8 -55.8 065 39 20 3.3 1.8 | -48.2 -54.8 060 43 22 6.7 3.7
29000 -47.3 -53.1 065 38 19 5.3 2.9 | -46.1 -51.0 060 42 22 7.3 4.0
28000 -45.7 -50.3 065 35 18 5.3 2.9 | -43.9 -47.0 060 41 21 7.3 4.0
27000 -44.1 -47.4 065 33 17 5.4 3.0 | -41.7 -43.1 060 39 20 7.3 4.0
26000 -42.2 -44.0 065 29 15 7.0 3.9 | -39.6 -39.3 060 36 19 6.7 3.7
25000 -40.1 -40.2 060 24 12 7.1 3.9 | -37.6 -35.7 060 32 16 6.7 3.7
24000 -37.9 -36.2 055 19 10 7.1 3.9 | -35.1 -31.2 055 27 14 6.7 3.7
23000 -35.0 -31.0 040 16 8 8.4 4.6 | -32.9 -27.2 050 21 11 7.3 4.0
22000 -32.5 -26.5 035 15 8 8.4 4.6 | -30.7 -23.3 035 16 8 7.3 4.0
21000 -30.0 -22.0 025 15 8 8.5 4.7 | -28.5 -19.3 020 13 7 7.4 4.1
20000 -27.4 -17.3 020 14 7 8.7 4.8 | -26.3 -15.3 005 12 6 7.5 4.1
19500 -26.1 -15.0 020 14 7 8.7 4.8 | -25.2 -13.4 360 12 6 7.5 4.1
19000 -24.8 -12.6 020 14 7 8.6 4.7 | -24.0 -11.2 350 12 6 7.5 4.1
18500 -23.5 -10.3 015 14 7 8.1 4.5 | -22.9 -9.2 345 12 6 7.6 4.1
18000 -22.3 -8.1 015 13 7 7.5 4.1 | -21.8 -7.2 345 13 7 7.6 4.2
17500 -21.2 -6.2 010 13 7 7.5 4.1 | -20.7 -5.3 340 13 7 7.6 4.2
17000 -20.2 -4.4 005 12 6 6.8 3.8 | -19.5 -3.1 340 14 7 8.0 4.4
16500 -19.2 -2.6 360 12 6 6.9 3.8 | -18.3 -0.9 340 14 7 8.2 4.5
16000 -18.1 -0.6 360 12 6 7.7 4.2 | -17.2 1.0 340 15 8 6.4 3.5
15500 -17.0 1.4 360 12 6 7.9 4.3 | -16.3 2.7 335 15 8 6.3 3.5
15000 -15.8 3.6 360 12 6 7.9 4.3 | -15.3 4.5 330 16 8 7.0 3.8
14500 -14.6 5.7 360 13 7 7.9 4.3 | -14.3 6.3 330 17 9 7.3 4.0
14000 -13.4 7.9 360 14 7 7.3 4.0 | -13.2 8.2 325 18 9 7.5 4.1
13500 -12.5 9.5 350 15 8 6.2 3.4 | -12.1 10.2 325 19 10 7.7 4.2
13000 -11.6 11.1 345 17 9 6.2 3.4 | -11.0 12.2 325 19 10 7.8 4.3
12500 -10.6 12.9 340 18 9 6.0 3.3 | -9.8 14.4 325 19 10 7.4 4.0
12000 -9.8 14.4 335 19 10 5.9 3.2 | -8.8 16.2 320 18 9 6.9 3.8
11750 -9.3 15.3 335 19 10 6.2 3.4 | -8.3 17.1 320 18 9 6.4 3.5
11500 -8.8 16.2 335 20 10 6.2 3.4 | -7.8 18.0 320 18 9 6.5 3.6
11250 -8.4 16.9 330 20 10 6.3 3.5 | -7.3 18.9 320 17 9 7.9 4.3
11000 -7.9 17.8 330 20 10 5.2 2.9 | -6.7 19.9 320 17 9 6.8 3.8
10750 -7.6 18.3 330 20 10 4.2 2.3 | -6.3 20.7 320 16 8 5.1 2.8
10500 -7.3 18.9 330 19 10 3.0 1.6 | -5.9 21.4 320 15 8 4.5 2.5
10250 -7.0 19.4 330 19 10 7.2 4.0 | -5.5 22.1 315 14 7 7.2 4.0
10000 -6.4 20.5 330 18 9 6.4 3.5 | -4.9 23.2 315 14 7 6.8 3.7
9750 -6.2 20.8 330 17 9 1.8 1.0 | -4.6 23.7 315 13 7 3.5 1.9
9500 -6.0 21.2 335 16 8 2.2 1.2 | -4.3 24.3 315 12 6 5.0 2.7
9250 -5.9 21.4 335 15 8 4.7 2.6 | -3.9 25.0 315 11 6 2.4 1.3
9000 -5.3 22.5 335 14 7 9.2 5.1 | -3.8 25.2 320 11 5 3.0 1.6
8750 -4.6 23.7 340 14 7 9.7 5.3 | -3.5 25.7 325 9 5 6.0 3.3
8500 -3.9 25.0 340 13 7 9.4 5.1 | -3.1 26.4 330 8 4 4.7 2.6
8250 -3.2 26.2 345 12 6 10.1 5.6 | -2.7 27.1 335 7 4 6.9 3.8
8000 -2.3 27.9 345 12 6 16.0 8.8 | -2.1 28.2 340 7 3 8.8 4.8
7750 -0.8 30.6 345 11 6 23.5 12.9 | -1.5 29.3 350 5 3 6.2 3.4
7500 M M M M M M M | M M M M M M M
7250 M M M M M M M | M M M M M M M
7000 M M M M M M M | M M M M M M M
6750 M M M M M M M | M M M M M M M
________________________________________________________________________________
This product is issued twice per day, once by approximately 0630 MST/0730 MDT
(1330 UTC). It is not continuously monitored nor updated after its initial
issuance.
The information contained herein is based on rawinsonde observation and/or
numerical weather prediction model data taken near the Air Force Academy
in Colorado Springs, Colorado at
North Latitude: 38 deg 58 min 48.000 sec
West Longitude: 104 deg 49 min 12.000 sec
Elevation: 6572 feet (2003 meters)
and may not be representative of other areas along the Front Range of the
Colorado Rocky Mountains. Note that some elevations in numerical weather
prediction models differ from actual station elevations, which can lead to
data which appear to be below ground. Erroneous data such as these should
not be used.
The content and format of this report as well as the issuance times are subject
to change without prior notice. Comments and suggestions are welcome and should
be directed to one of the addresses or phone numbers shown at the bottom of this
page. To expedite a response to comments, be sure to mention your interest in
the soaring forecast.
DEFINITIONS:
CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) - An integrated measure of the
energy available for convective development, also known as the positive
area on a thermodynamic diagram. Units are Joules per kilogram. Larger
values are indicative of greater instability and the possibility of
stronger convective activity, including thunderstorms. Values around or
greater than 1000 suggest the possibility of severe weather should
convective activity develop.
CIN (Convective Inhibition) - An integrated measure of the amount of energy
needed to initiate convective activity, also known as the negative area on
a thermodynamic diagram. Units are Joules per kilogram. The more negative
this number, the more energy is required to initiate convection. This
inhibitive energy can be overcome through surface heating, cooling aloft,
lifting mechanisms (orographic, frontal, gravity waves, etc.)
Convective Condensation Level - The height to which an air parcel possessing the
average saturation mixing ratio in the lowest 4000 feet of the airmass,
if heated sufficiently from below, will rise dry adiabatically until it
just becomes saturated. It estimates the base of cumulus clouds that are
produced by surface heating only.
Convection Temperature (ConvectionT) - The surface temperature required to make
the airmass dry adiabatic up to the given level. It can be considered a
"trigger temperature" for that level.
Freezing Level - The height where the temperature is zero degrees Celsius.
Height of Stable Layer - The height (between 12,000 and 18,000 feet above
mean sea level) where the smallest lapse rate exists. The location and
existence of this feature is important in the generation of mountain
waves.
K Index - A measure of stability which combines the temperature difference
between approximately 5,000 and 18,000 feet above the surface, the amount
of moisture at approximately 5,000 feet above the surface, and a measure
of the dryness at approximately 10,000 feet above the surface. Larger
positive numbers indicate more instability and a greater likelihood of
thunderstorm development. One interpretation of K index values regarding
soaring in the western United States is given in WMO Technical Note 158
and is reproduced in the following table:
below -10 no or weak thermals
-10 to 5 dry thermals or 1/8 cumulus with moderate thermals
5 to 15 good soaring conditions
15 to 20 good soaring conditions with occasional showers
20 to 30 excellent soaring conditions, but increasing
probability of showers and thunderstorms
above 30 more than 60 percent probability of thunderstorms
Lapse Rate - The change with height of the temperature. Negative values indicate
inversions.
Lifted Condensation Level - The height to which an air parcel possessing the
average dew point in the lowest 4000 feet of the airmass and the forecast
maximum temperature must be lifted dry adiabatically to attain saturation.
Lifted Index (LI) - The difference between the environmental temperature at a
level approximately 18,000 feet above the surface and the temperature of
an air parcel lifted dry adiabatically from the surface to its lifted
condensation level and then pseudoadiabatically thereafter to this same
level. The parcel`s initial temperature is the forecast maximum
temperature and its dew point is the average dew point in the lowest 4000
feet of the airmass. Negative values are indicative of instability with
positive values showing stable conditions.
Lift Rate - An experimental estimate of the strength of thermals. It is
computed the same way as the maximum rate of lift but uses the actual
level rather than the maximum height of thermals in the calculation.
Also, none of the empirical adjustments based on cloudiness and K-index
are applied to these calculations.
Maximum Height of Thermals - The height where the dry adiabat through the
forecast maximum temperature intersects the environmental temperature.
Maximum Rate of Lift - An estimate of the maximum strength of thermals. It
is computed from an empirical formula which combines the expected maximum
height of thermals with the difference in the environmental temperatures
between the maximum height of thermals and the temperature 4,000 feet
above the ground. After this computation, further empirical adjustments
are made based on the value of the K-index and the amount and opacity of
middle and high level cloudiness expected between the time of trigger
temperature and the time of overdevelopment.
Middle/High Clouds - The amount and opacity of middle (altostratus, altocumulus)
or high (cirrus, cirrostratus, cirrocumulus) clouds. Broken means that
between 60% and 90% of the sky is covered by the cloud, with overcast
conditions occurring when more than 90% of the sky is covered by the cloud.
Thin implies that the clouds are predominantly transparent, meaning that
some sunlight is reaching the ground, in contrast to opaque which suggests
that little sunlight is reaching the ground.
Potential Height of Wave - The minimum of the following two heights:
1. Level above the height of stable layer (or 14,000 feet if none exists)
where the wind direction changes by 30 degrees or more
2. Level above the height of stable layer (or 14,000 feet if none exists)
where the wind speed no longer increases with height
PVA/NVA - Positive vorticity advection (PVA)/negative vorticity advection (NVA)
on the 500 millibar isobaric surface (approximately 18,000 feet above mean
sea level). Weak PVA has been shown to assist in mountain wave soaring.
Soaring Window - The time between the time the trigger temperature is reached
and the time of overdevelopment.
Thermal Index - The difference between the environmental temperature and the
temperature at a particular level determined by following the dry adiabat
through the forecast maximum temperature up to that level. Negative values
are indicative of thermal lift.
Thermal Soaring Index - An adjective rating (for sailplanes) based on the
computed maximum rate of lift, and the wind speed and middle and high
cloud cover expected during the soaring window (the time of the trigger
temperature and the time of overdevelopment) according to the following:
Maximum rate of lift Adjective Rating
>= 800 fpm Excellent
>= 400 and < 800 fpm Good
>= 200 and < 400 fpm Fair
< 200 fpm Poor
Time of Overdevelopment - The time one or more of the following phenomena,
which essentially shut off thermal lift, is expected to occur:
1. formation of broken to overcast convective cloud cover
2. formation of scattered to numerous downbursts
3. initiation of widespread precipitation
Time of Trigger Temperature - The time the surface temperature is expected to
reach the trigger temperature.
Trigger Temperature - The surface temperature required to make the first 4000
feet of the atmosphere dry adiabatic.
Wave Soaring Index - An empirical, adjective rating (for sailplanes) which
attempts to combine a variety of phenomena important in mountain wave
soaring into a single index number. Objective points are assigned to
these phenomena: wind speed and direction at 14,000 ft MSL, the static
stability in the 12,000-18,000 ft MSL layer, the wind speed gradient above
the stable layer, jet stream location and frontal and upper trough
movements.
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