922
FNUS75 KPUB 181915
FWSPUB

Spot Forecast for Palmer Lake Pile Burn...Palmer Lake Fire Dept
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
115 PM MDT Fri Oct 18 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1700 MDT on October 18.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

Please contact our office at (719) 948-9429, if you have questions
or concerns with this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...

Rain showers and embedded thunderstorms will expand in coverage
over the area this afternoon with persistent rain expected by Saturday
morning. Showers will shift off to the east though won`t entirely end
Saturday afternoon with isolated to scattered showers continuing off and on
through Sunday as the storm system slowly moves across the state. There is the
chance for up to 0.5 to 0.75 of rainfall with this storm. Given the warm origin
of the storm (from the southwest), precipitation will fall mainly as rain
with little to no snowfall accumulation expected, even if some snowflakes
briefly mix in early Saturday morning.  Winds will be predominantly north at
10-20 mph before becoming light Saturday morning then shifting out of the
south Saturday afternoon. Temperatures will be much cooler through the period.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy. Rain and slight chance of
                    thunderstorms.
LAL.................3.
Max temperature.....59F.
Min humidity........43-48 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........North winds 10-20 mph. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms.
Mixing height.......2000 ft agl.
Transport winds.....North around 12 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (MDT)      5PM
Sky (%).........100
Weather cov.....DEF
Weather type....RN
Tstm cov........SCH
LAL.............3
Temp............44
RH..............86
20 FT wind dir..N
20 FT wind spd..10
20 FT wind gust.22
Mix hgt (kft)...2.0
Transp wind dir.N
Transp wind spd.12
Haines index....3
SDspl kt-ft/100022

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy. Rain until 2400. Slight chance of
                    thunderstorms. Rain likely after 2400.
LAL.................3 until 2400, then 2 until 0300, then 1.
Min temperature.....35F.
Max humidity........91-96 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........North winds around 12-24 mph. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms until 0300.
Mixing height.......2000 ft agl.
Transport winds.....North around 9 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor.
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (MDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........97  100 100 100 100 95  96  96  95  96  98  97
Weather cov.....DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF CHC CHC SCH SCH CHC LKY LKY
Weather type....RN  RN  RN  RN  RN  RN  RN  RN  RN  RN  RN  RN
Tstm cov........SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
LAL.............3   3   3   3   3   3   2   2   2   1   1   1
Temp............43  40  39  39  38  37  37  37  37  37  37  36
RH..............82  92  92  92  96  96  96  92  92  92  92  96
20 FT wind dir..N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N
20 FT wind spd..10  10  10  12  12  12  12  12  12  9   9   9
20 FT wind gust.23  23  23  25  25  25  24  24  24  20  20  20
Mix hgt (kft)...2.0 2.0 2.0 2.5 2.5 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 1.5
Transp wind dir.N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N
Transp wind spd.14  14  15  16  15  14  13  12  12  12  9   9
Haines index....2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2
SDspl kt-ft/100026  26  28  32  31  27  24  19  20  20  18  14

.SATURDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy. Rain likely until 1000, then
                    chance of rain.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....53F.
Min humidity........64-69 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........North wind 5-15 mph until 1200, then south 10-20 mph.
Mixing height.......2500 ft agl.
Transport winds.....North around 7 mph until 0800, then west until
                    0900, then south around 17 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor.
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (MDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........98  98  97  94  91  87  81  81  73  64  59  68
Weather cov.....LKY LKY LKY LKY CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
Weather type....RN  RN  RN  RN  RN  RN  RN  RN  RN  RN  RN  RN
Tstm cov........
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............37  37  38  42  44  45  46  49  50  51  52  50
RH..............92  96  92  86  82  86  83  77  77  74  69  74
20 FT wind dir..N   N   N   NW  NW  NW  S   S   S   S   S   S
20 FT wind spd..6   6   6   6   6   6   8   8   8   9   9   9
20 FT wind gust.14  14  14  14  14  14  18  18  18  20  20  20
Mix hgt (kft)...1.5 1.0 1.0 1.5 1.5 2.0 2.0 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5
Transp wind dir.N   NW  W   SW  S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
Transp wind spd.8   7   7   6   7   9   12  15  16  17  17  18
Haines index....2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2
SDspl kt-ft/10009   7   7   7   10  16  22  31  35  38  36  36

$$
Forecaster...TORGERSON
Requested by...John Vincent
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2424417.0/PUB
.DELDT 10/18/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0