608
FGUS64 KTUA 141509
ESGPUB

LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
ARKANSAS-RED BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER, TULSA, OK
909 AM CST THU NOV 14 2024

IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES
ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.

HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS.

WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF
EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS
LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER
THAN NORMAL.

...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING...
             Valid  11/14/2024 - 02/12/2025

                                    : CURRENT AND HISTORICAL CHANCES
                                    : OF EXCEEDING FLOOD CATEGORIES
                                    :       AS A PERCENTAGE(%)
                     CATEGORICAL    :
                  FLOOD STAGES (FT) :   MINOR    MODERATE   MAJOR
LOCATION          MINOR  MOD  MAJOR :  CS   HS   CS   HS   CS   HS
--------          ----- ----- ----- : ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----

:Arkansas River
LEDC2             9.0   10.0   12.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
SALC2             8.0    9.0   10.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
WSVC2             9.0   10.0   11.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
PDLC2             9.0   10.0   11.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
CNCC2            10.0   12.0   14.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
PRTC2             9.0   10.0   11.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
PDAC2             8.0    9.0   11.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
ADLC2             7.0   10.0   12.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
NPTC2            16.5   17.5   18.5    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
FWLC2            13.5   14.0   15.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
ARCC2            10.0   11.0   12.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
LXHC2            11.0   13.0   15.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
LMAC2            11.0   13.0   15.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5

:Fountain Creek
FNEC2            11.5   16.0   18.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
FHAC2            12.0   14.0   16.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
PNNC2            12.0   14.0   15.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
FCHC2            10.0   12.0   13.5    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5

:St. Charles River
SCVC2            12.0   15.0   18.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5

:Purgatoire River
PGMC2             7.0    9.0   11.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
PGRC2            10.0   12.0   14.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
PTRC2            11.0   12.0   13.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
LAPC2             9.0   12.0   15.0    16   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5

LEGEND
CS  = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK)
HS  = HISTORICAL SIMULATION
FT  = FEET

IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID
TIME PERIOD.

...TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

.B TUA 1114 Z DH12 /DC202411141509/DRD+6/DVD90/HGVFZXT
.B1 /HGVFZX9/HGVFZXH/HGVFZX5/HGVFZXG/HGVFZX1/HGVFZXF

:    Chance of Exceeding Stages at Specific Locations
:            Valid  11/14/2024 - 02/12/2025
:
:        95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%     5%
:        ---    ---    ---    ---    ---    ---    ---
:Arkansas River
LEDC2    4.7/   4.7/   4.7/   4.7/   4.7/   4.7/   4.8
SALC2    3.2/   3.2/   3.2/   3.2/   3.2/   3.4/   3.4
WSVC2    3.9/   3.9/   3.9/   3.9/   3.9/   4.2/   4.2
PDLC2    2.9/   2.9/   2.9/   2.9/   3.0/   3.1/   3.2
CNCC2    6.1/   6.1/   6.1/   6.1/   6.2/   6.3/   6.4
PRTC2    2.2/   2.2/   2.2/   2.3/   2.5/   2.7/   2.7
PDAC2    2.3/   2.3/   2.7/   3.0/   3.4/   3.6/   3.8
ADLC2    3.4/   3.5/   3.8/   4.0/   4.4/   4.9/   5.4
NPTC2   13.1/  13.1/  13.4/  13.6/  14.1/  14.7/  15.1
FWLC2   10.7/  10.7/  10.9/  11.0/  11.2/  11.5/  11.7
ARCC2    2.2/   2.2/   2.4/   2.6/   3.0/   3.5/   3.9
LXHC2    7.4/   7.4/   7.8/   8.4/   9.1/  10.2/  10.8
LMAC2    5.8/   5.8/   5.8/   5.8/   6.6/   8.0/   9.2

:Fountain Creek
FNEC2    5.4/   5.5/   5.5/   5.8/   6.5/   7.1/   7.2
FHAC2    8.0/   8.0/   8.0/   8.1/   8.6/   9.0/   9.1
PNNC2    4.2/   4.2/   4.3/   4.5/   4.9/   5.5/   5.6
FCHC2    2.2/   2.2/   2.2/   2.4/   2.8/   3.3/   3.4

:St. Charles River
SCVC2    3.1/   3.1/   3.3/   4.4/   5.3/   6.3/   6.5

:Purgatoire River
PGMC2    2.9/   2.9/   2.9/   3.1/   3.2/   3.5/   3.6
PGRC2    4.1/   4.1/   4.8/   5.1/   5.3/   6.0/   6.7
PTRC2    1.0/   1.0/   1.6/   2.0/   2.3/   2.8/   3.2
LAPC2    5.7/   5.8/   6.0/   6.5/   8.0/   9.8/  10.8

:Long-range probabilistic outlooks will be issued monthly
:throughout the year.

.END

$$