432
FGUS75 KPUB 111738
ESFPUB
COC003-009-011-015-021-023-025-027-041-043-055-061-065-071-
079-089-099-101-105-109-119-251800-

PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Pueblo CO
1027 AM MST Tue Feb 11 2025

In Table 1 below...the current (CS) and historical (HS) or normal
probabilities of exceeding minor...moderate...and major flood stages
are listed for the valid time period.

CS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
based on current conditions.

HS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
based on historical or normal conditions.

When the value of CS is more than HS...the probability of
exceeding that level is higher than normal. When the value of CS is
less than HS...the probability of exceeding that level is lower
than normal.


...Table 1--Probabilities for minor...moderate and major flooding...
                    Valid Period:  02/11/2025 - 05/12/2025

                                       :    Current and Historical
                                       :     Chances of Exceeding
                                       :       Flood Categories
                                       :      as a Percentage (%)
                      Categorical      :
                   Flood Stages (FT)   :   Minor    Moderate   Major
Location           Minor   Mod   Major :  CS   HS   CS   HS   CS   HS
--------           -----  -----  ----- : ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---
:Arkansas River
near Leadville       9.0   10.0   12.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
at Salida            8.0    9.0   10.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
near Wellsville      9.0   10.0   11.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
at Parkdale          9.0   10.0   11.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
at Canon City       10.0   12.0   14.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
at Portland          9.0   10.0   11.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
above Pueblo         8.0    9.0   11.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
near Avondale        7.0   10.0   12.0 :  18    8   <5   <5   <5   <5
near Nepesta        16.5   17.5   18.5 :   9   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
near Fowler         13.5   14.0   15.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
near Rocky Ford     10.0   11.0   12.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
at La Junta         11.0   13.0   15.0 :  33   13   11   <5   <5   <5
at Lamar            11.0   13.0   15.0 :  <5    5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Fountain Creek
at CO Springs       11.5   16.0   18.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
near Fountain       12.0   14.0   16.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
near Pinon          12.0   14.0   15.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
at Pueblo           10.0   12.0   13.5 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:St. Charles River
at Vineland         12.0   15.0   18.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Purgatoire River
at Madrid            7.0    9.0   11.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
below Trinidad Lk   10.0   12.0   14.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
at Trinidad         11.0   12.0   13.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
near Las Animas      9.0   12.0   15.0 :  17    8    8   <5   <5   <5

Legend
CS = Conditional Simulation (Current Outlook)
HS = Historical Simulation
FT = Feet

In Table 2 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the
probability of exceeding the listed stage levels (FT) for the valid
time period.

...Table 2--Exceedance Probabilities...

                               Chance of Exceeding Stages
                                  at Specific Locations
                          Valid Period: 02/11/2025 - 05/12/2025
Location              95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%     5%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:Arkansas River
near Leadville        4.7    4.9    5.0    5.2    5.3    5.5    5.7
at Salida             3.2    3.2    3.3    3.5    3.6    3.7    3.8
near Wellsville       4.0    4.1    4.3    4.4    4.6    4.9    5.2
at Parkdale           3.1    3.2    3.3    3.4    3.6    3.9    4.2
at Canon City         6.3    6.3    6.4    6.6    6.7    7.0    7.4
at Portland           2.4    2.5    2.6    2.8    3.0    3.4    4.2
above Pueblo          2.0    2.0    3.7    4.1    4.7    6.3    6.8
near Avondale         2.9    3.5    4.0    4.6    6.2    8.0    9.0
near Nepesta         13.2   13.4   13.8   14.2   15.3   16.5   17.3
near Fowler          10.8   10.9   11.1   11.3   11.8   12.4   12.7
near Rocky Ford       2.3    2.4    2.8    3.2    4.1    5.2    5.6
at La Junta           8.6    8.8    9.4   10.0   11.5   13.2   13.8
at Lamar              5.8    5.8    5.8    5.9    6.1    6.7    8.8
:Fountain Creek
at CO Springs         5.6    5.7    5.9    6.3    6.9    7.6    8.7
near Fountain         7.9    7.9    8.1    8.5    9.1   10.0   10.7
near Pinon            3.7    3.7    3.9    4.3    5.1    6.8    8.6
at Pueblo             1.7    1.7    1.9    2.4    3.2    4.2    5.7
:St. Charles River
at Vineland           3.4    3.6    4.0    4.8    6.4    7.5    7.9
:Purgatoire River
at Madrid             2.9    3.0    3.1    3.2    3.4    3.5    4.0
below Trinidad Lk     4.2    4.2    5.2    6.0    7.0    7.5    8.6
at Trinidad           0.8    0.9    1.7    2.3    2.9    3.3    5.2
near Las Animas       3.0    3.1    3.2    4.5    7.1   11.0   14.1

These long-range probabilistic outlooks contain forecast values that
are calculated using multiple season scenarios from 30 or more years
of climatological data...including current conditions of the
river...soil moisture...snow cover...and 30 to 90 day long-range
outlooks of temperature and precipitation. By providing a range of
probabilities...the level of risk associated with long-range planning
decisions can be determined. These probabilistic forecasts are part
of the National Weather Service`s advanced hydrologic prediction
service.

Visit our web site weather.gov/pub for more weather and water
information.

The next outlook will be issued Tue Feb 25, 2025.

$$