158
FXUS65 KPUB 012105
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
205 PM MST Mon Dec 1 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry and chilly conditions tonight for the region.

- Snow starts to increase along the mountains throughout
  Tuesday, especially along the central mountains.

- Northwest flow will prevail for late week into the weekend
  with near continuous snow across the Central Mountains.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 202 PM MST Mon Dec 1 2025

Tonight: Monday night brings a quiet period of weather for south
central and southeastern Colorado. Northwest flow will be in place
over the region behind an exiting trough, with subsidence and drier
air increasing behind the trough. Given these things, dry conditions
are anticipated for tonight areawide. Outside of that, occasional
high level clouds will be streaming over the area, with light winds
around and less than 5 mph for many. With that said, winds are
expected to start rising along the higher terrain by Tuesday morning
as flow starts to increase ahead of another approaching wave, with
winds gusting 30-40 mph. As for temperatures, another chilly night
is anticipated for much of the area given fairly light winds and
minimal cloud cover allowing efficient cooling. Given this, the
plains will fall into the 10s, with the valleys and mountains
dropping into the low single digits to 10s.

Tomorrow: Heading into Tuesday, active weather starts to make a
quick return for portions of the region. Another trough will start
to dig towards south central and southeastern Colorado throughout
the day, with flow and forcing rising in response to this,
especially orographic forcing. In addition, a modest increase in
moisture is anticipated ahead of this approaching trough. With
orographic forcing and moisture rising, showers are expected to
blossom along the higher terrain during the day, particularly along
the central mountains where forcing will be greatest. Elsewhere, dry
conditions are expected as the larger scale forcing remains too far
to the west still. Beyond all of that, mid to high level clouds will
progressively increase during the day, with winds remaining
relatively light, around and less than 10 mph, for most. Looking at
temperatures, a near seasonal day is expected, with the plains
warming into the upper 40s to mid 50s, the valleys into the mid 30s
to mid 40s, and the mountains into the 20s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 223 AM MST Mon Dec 1 2025

Tuesday night through Thursday...models in good agreement with
the evolution and track of the upper system. Snow will increase
along the Continental Divide Tuesday night into Monday morning.
Meanwhile, a cold front will arrive on the Plains, with
northeasterly upslope flow and cold air advection spreading
across the Plains. Snow will spread eastward off the higher
terrain into the Palmer Divide by morning and continue south
along the I-25 corridor through early afternoon. Temperatures
look cold enough for all snow with max temperatures on the
Plains only reaching the upper 20s to near freezing. As the
upper system tracks across Colorado, the focus for snow will
shift south to along the southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains
and southern I-25 corridor Wednesday night into Thursday
morning. Snow looks to taper off by Thursday afternoon, hanging
on the longest over the southern mountains and Raton Mesa. A
quick look at the snow amount possibilities; 1 to 3 inches for
the lower elevations along I-25, and 3 to 6 inches for the
Mountains. It should be noted, that ensemble guidance continues
to increase snow amounts from run to run, with 24 hour means
closer to 3 inches for the I-25 corridor Wednesday into early
Thursday. This will need to be monitored.

Friday through Monday...upper troughing will anchor to the east
with upper ridging off the west coast. This will put persistent
northwest flow across Colorado for the later half of the
extended period. Embedded waves will bring periods of snow to
the Mountains, with near continuous snowfall for the Central
Mountains north of Cottonwood Pass where orographics favor
northwest flow. The Plains look to remain dry during this
period, with temperatures rebounding back into the 40s, to
perhaps a few low 50s.  Mozley

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1024 AM MST Mon Dec 1 2025

KCOS, KPUB, and KALS: VFR conditions are expected over the next 24
hours. Winds are expected to remain light, less than 10 knots,
through this TAF period for all three TAF sites. Otherwise, high
level clouds will start to increase near the end of this TAF period,
with dry conditions prevailing.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SIMCOE
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...SIMCOE