


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO
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726 FXUS65 KPUB 261111 AFDPUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pueblo CO 511 AM MDT Sat Jul 26 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Hot Weekend, mainly dry Sat; drier Sun. - Increased moisture will lead to more widespread showers and thunderstorms beginning Monday, and especially Tuesday through Thursday. - Flash flood potential looks highest Tuesday and Wednesday, with areas that have seen recent heavy rainfall of most concern. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 324 AM MDT Sat Jul 26 2025 A mainly hot and dry weekend is anticipated as the Monsoon plume gets pinched off and drier air moves in aloft over the region. With southwesterly flow remaining over the region and drier air in place, temps on the plains across the lower Ark rvr valley will likely reach into the 100s, with Sunday being a tad bit warmer than Saturday. Temps over the plains along the ridges will be in the 90s with larger valleys in the U80s; mtns will be in the 60s and 70s. As for records, I do not see any max temp records being broken Sat, but we may get within a degree or two of record max temps on Sun. Very little, if any, precip is anticipated during the next 48 hours. If we do see any convective showers, they will likely be in the central mtns tomorrow. Sunday looks to be dry all areas. Although Min RH values most areas will reach critical fire weather values (<=15%), winds will be relatively light with diurnally driven flow anticipated. /Hodanish && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 324 AM MDT Sat Jul 26 2025 No changes to the forecast thinking through the extended period. Hot conditions will prevail Monday, with precipitation chances ramping up through mid to late week. Temperatures will cool off a bit with the increasing precipitation. Sunday night and Monday...upper level high pressure will build across the Missouri Valley through Monday with increasing southerly flow across southern Colorado. This will advect moister northward into the region. Dry conditions are forecast Sunday night, with lows in the 60s across the Plains, and 40s across the San Luis Valley. One last hot day expected on Monday, with highs on the Plains in the mid 90s to lower 100s, and 80s across the San Luis Valley. As moisture spreads northward, scattered thunderstorms are forecast across the higher elevations Monday afternoon, then spreading northeast into the Palmer Divide and Raton Mesa regions during the evening, and dissipating after sunset. Tuesday through Thursday...upper level high pressure will sit across the Central Plains through mid week, with multiple embedded waves lifting north out of the Desert Southwest with ample moisture. Thunderstorms coverage will increase through this period, with much of southern Colorado seeing elevated chances for precipitation. PWAT values are forecast to increase in excess of an inch across the region, and low level dewpoints will range in the upper 50s to lower 60s on the Plains. Shortwave energy will lift north across Colorado each afternoon and evening. Initial convection is forecast to develop over the Mountains, and spread eastward during the evening hours. The main concerns at this time will be lightning and heavy rainfall. The flash flood potential increases Tuesday, peaking on Wednesday, especially for areas that have seen recent heavy rainfall. Temperatures will cool off a bit through this time period, with 80s and 90s across the Plains. Friday into Saturday...the upper level high is forecast to migrate to the Desert Southwest, with an upper ridge building north across Colorado. Flow aloft will transition from southerly to westerly, with continued embedded upper energy moving across Colorado. PWAT values look to fall off a bit, which will likely impact precipitation efficiency. But we will likely continue to see thunderstorms with locally heavy rainfall, initially over the Mountains, and spreading into the Plains given the increased westerly flow aloft. Temperatures will also begin to warm, back into the 90s across the Plains. Mozley && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 510 AM MDT Sat Jul 26 2025 VFR conditions at all three terminals (KALS, KCOS, KPUB) through the next 24 hours. Southerly winds could gust near 20-22 kts this afternoon at KALS and KCOS. Mozley && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...HODANISH LONG TERM...MOZLEY AVIATION...MOZLEY