430
FXUS65 KPUB 230503
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1103 PM MDT Sun Jun 22 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cooler and unsettled weather for Monday.

- Seasonal temperatures with daily chances of showers and storms,
  some strong to severe through mid week.

- Drier and warmer weather briefly returns Thursday-Friday, with
  chances for rain increasing again next weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 240 PM MDT Sun Jun 22 2025

Current water vapor imagery and upper air analysis has moderate
southwest flow aloft across the region, with a broad upper trough
translating across the Northern Tier. Water vapor imagery also
indicates secondary energy digging down the backside of the system
across the Pacific Northwest Coast at this time. At the surface,
breezy south to southwest winds across the plains has developed
a dryline across the southeast plains, with a tight ribbon of dew
pts in the mid to upper 50s and SB and Downdraft Cape 1000-1500 J/KG
across the far southeast plains near the Kansas border. Further
west, dry and breezy weather is verifying the Red Flag Warning
across the Central and Southern Mtns.

For this afternoon and early evening, higher res models continue to
support convection along said dry line, with the potential for a few
strong to severe storms producing gusty outflow winds and marginally
severe hail.

Latest models then support weakening southwest flow aloft across the
region as the Northern Tier system splits with the passing northern
portion of the system sending a cold front across Eastern Colorado
later tonight, as secondary energy digs a trough across the Great
Basin through Monday night. Models do differ on the strength of said
cold front, with higher res data indicating the potential for
showers and storms developing behind the passing front pushing south
across the Palmer Divide between 09Z-12Z Monday, which continues to
push south and west across the rest of the plains by 18Z. Cooler
upslope flow and stratus looks to keep the southeast plains stable
through much of the day tomorrow, with showers and storms developing
across the higher terrain through the afternoon. If there is enough
clearing and solar insolation, there would be the potential for
strong to severe storms once again across the far southeast Plains,
where the SPC Day 2 Outlook indicates a marginal risk. Further west,
latest model data supports a slight increase in available and enough
weakening of the winds to limit widespread critical fire weather
conditions across the Central and Southwest Mtns. With that said, we
have cancelled the Fire Weather Watch that was in place for Monday.
Much cooler temperatures in the 70s to lower 80s remain in the
forecast across the southeast plains for tomorrow, with temperatures
at to slightly below seasonal levels in the 60s and 70s expected
across the higher terrain.

Convection wanes through the evening tomorrow, with continued
moisture low level upslope leading to the potential for stratus
to develop once again across the plains Monday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 326 AM MDT Sun Jun 22 2025

More seasonal temperatures continue across the area through most
of the week, as the upper-level trough continues to amplify and
move into the Four Corners Region. Latest guidance shows high
temperatures in the 70s-80s through about Thursday, after which
we start ot warm into the 90s again over the eastern plains.
Looking at precipitation chances, the upper trough will allow
for a bit more moisture to make it into the mountains, while
southerly surface winds over the plains give us more daily
chances for showers and thunderstorms.

For Tuesday, models show a plume of moisture moving in from the
south, leading to scattered precipitation across most of the area,
including parts of the high valleys and mountains. Best activity
will be focused along the Raton Mesa, where orographic lift will be
supported. At this time, it appears that the best, most unstable air
will remain south of our CWA, with some lingering cloud cover
keeping things a tad stable for us. Can generally expect showers
with some embedded thunderstorms, the strength of which will depend
on how CAPE evolves throughout the day.

Upper wave moves past on Wednesday, pushing moisture through our
area to the east, leading to another wet and unsettled day. High
temperatures will cool off a few more degrees, with another day of
scattered to widespread showers and storms. The end of this week
will bring something of a transition period between systems. A short-
lived upper ridge will move overhead Thursday-Friday, leading to a
slight drying trend along with warmer temperatures. Long-term
guidance has also started to hint at another upper wave moving in
sometime next weekend, but timing needs to be ironed out for the
details to become clear.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1101 PM MDT Sun Jun 22 2025

At KALS, VFR the next 24 hrs. Gusty sw winds will increase again Mon
afternoon, with gusts to 25 kts after 19z. Winds then diminish
after 02z.

At KPUB and KCOS, cold front already through both sites as of 05z,
accompanied by north winds gusting to 30 kts. Expect period of gusty
(g25-35 kts) n-ne winds at both sites through 12z, then flow
weakens and turns gradually more sely during the day Mon.
Already seeing a patch of stratus along/north of the Palmer
Divide at 05z, and expect this area to expand and spread
southward overnight, with a period of MVFR cigs at both sites
after 08z-09z, continuing until 15z-17z. Still a low threat of
IFR cigs at KCOS 09z-15z as well, though chance looks too low to
include in the 06z taf issuance. Cigs then lift to VFR during
the afternoon. Low risk (10-20 percent) of a tsra at both sites
after 21z, though expect bulk of convection to stay back over
the mountains at this point, as instability over the plains will
be rather low. As a result, will continue to keep storms out of
both tafs for this forecast cycle.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...GARBEROGLIO
AVIATION...PETERSEN