


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO
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430 FXUS65 KPUB 230503 AFDPUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pueblo CO 1103 PM MDT Sun Jun 22 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Cooler and unsettled weather for Monday. - Seasonal temperatures with daily chances of showers and storms, some strong to severe through mid week. - Drier and warmer weather briefly returns Thursday-Friday, with chances for rain increasing again next weekend. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 240 PM MDT Sun Jun 22 2025 Current water vapor imagery and upper air analysis has moderate southwest flow aloft across the region, with a broad upper trough translating across the Northern Tier. Water vapor imagery also indicates secondary energy digging down the backside of the system across the Pacific Northwest Coast at this time. At the surface, breezy south to southwest winds across the plains has developed a dryline across the southeast plains, with a tight ribbon of dew pts in the mid to upper 50s and SB and Downdraft Cape 1000-1500 J/KG across the far southeast plains near the Kansas border. Further west, dry and breezy weather is verifying the Red Flag Warning across the Central and Southern Mtns. For this afternoon and early evening, higher res models continue to support convection along said dry line, with the potential for a few strong to severe storms producing gusty outflow winds and marginally severe hail. Latest models then support weakening southwest flow aloft across the region as the Northern Tier system splits with the passing northern portion of the system sending a cold front across Eastern Colorado later tonight, as secondary energy digs a trough across the Great Basin through Monday night. Models do differ on the strength of said cold front, with higher res data indicating the potential for showers and storms developing behind the passing front pushing south across the Palmer Divide between 09Z-12Z Monday, which continues to push south and west across the rest of the plains by 18Z. Cooler upslope flow and stratus looks to keep the southeast plains stable through much of the day tomorrow, with showers and storms developing across the higher terrain through the afternoon. If there is enough clearing and solar insolation, there would be the potential for strong to severe storms once again across the far southeast Plains, where the SPC Day 2 Outlook indicates a marginal risk. Further west, latest model data supports a slight increase in available and enough weakening of the winds to limit widespread critical fire weather conditions across the Central and Southwest Mtns. With that said, we have cancelled the Fire Weather Watch that was in place for Monday. Much cooler temperatures in the 70s to lower 80s remain in the forecast across the southeast plains for tomorrow, with temperatures at to slightly below seasonal levels in the 60s and 70s expected across the higher terrain. Convection wanes through the evening tomorrow, with continued moisture low level upslope leading to the potential for stratus to develop once again across the plains Monday night. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 326 AM MDT Sun Jun 22 2025 More seasonal temperatures continue across the area through most of the week, as the upper-level trough continues to amplify and move into the Four Corners Region. Latest guidance shows high temperatures in the 70s-80s through about Thursday, after which we start ot warm into the 90s again over the eastern plains. Looking at precipitation chances, the upper trough will allow for a bit more moisture to make it into the mountains, while southerly surface winds over the plains give us more daily chances for showers and thunderstorms. For Tuesday, models show a plume of moisture moving in from the south, leading to scattered precipitation across most of the area, including parts of the high valleys and mountains. Best activity will be focused along the Raton Mesa, where orographic lift will be supported. At this time, it appears that the best, most unstable air will remain south of our CWA, with some lingering cloud cover keeping things a tad stable for us. Can generally expect showers with some embedded thunderstorms, the strength of which will depend on how CAPE evolves throughout the day. Upper wave moves past on Wednesday, pushing moisture through our area to the east, leading to another wet and unsettled day. High temperatures will cool off a few more degrees, with another day of scattered to widespread showers and storms. The end of this week will bring something of a transition period between systems. A short- lived upper ridge will move overhead Thursday-Friday, leading to a slight drying trend along with warmer temperatures. Long-term guidance has also started to hint at another upper wave moving in sometime next weekend, but timing needs to be ironed out for the details to become clear. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1101 PM MDT Sun Jun 22 2025 At KALS, VFR the next 24 hrs. Gusty sw winds will increase again Mon afternoon, with gusts to 25 kts after 19z. Winds then diminish after 02z. At KPUB and KCOS, cold front already through both sites as of 05z, accompanied by north winds gusting to 30 kts. Expect period of gusty (g25-35 kts) n-ne winds at both sites through 12z, then flow weakens and turns gradually more sely during the day Mon. Already seeing a patch of stratus along/north of the Palmer Divide at 05z, and expect this area to expand and spread southward overnight, with a period of MVFR cigs at both sites after 08z-09z, continuing until 15z-17z. Still a low threat of IFR cigs at KCOS 09z-15z as well, though chance looks too low to include in the 06z taf issuance. Cigs then lift to VFR during the afternoon. Low risk (10-20 percent) of a tsra at both sites after 21z, though expect bulk of convection to stay back over the mountains at this point, as instability over the plains will be rather low. As a result, will continue to keep storms out of both tafs for this forecast cycle. && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...MW LONG TERM...GARBEROGLIO AVIATION...PETERSEN