481
FXUS65 KPUB 272339
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
539 PM MDT Mon Jul 27 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Afternoon/evening rain chances (some heavy) increasing between now
and late Wednesday as monsoon plume shunted eastward.

- Continued hot, but NOT as hot as yesterday and today.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 122 PM MDT Mon Jul 27 2026

For the rest of Today...

Another very hot day over the region is anticipated as max
temperatures are once again going to get at or above 100F across most
of the plains. Many areas over the plains will likely see temps 105
or hotter. The good news is this will be the last day of this record
breaking heat as the monsoon plume is being shunted eastward and a
weak boundary will move across the region late this afternoon or
early evening. The combination of these two events should allow for
some scattered storms to move/develop on the plains and move
eastward later this evening. The storm activity is not expected to
be widespread, but there will likely be more convection over the
plans than we have seen in awhile.

With the combination of the boundary moving through and the precip
activity, it will likely get breezy to windy across a good part of
the plains this evening, with northeast to north winds prevailing.

In the meantime, showers and thunderstorms will be scattered to
likely across the mountains this afternoon. As always, if a strong
storm develops in a flash flood prone area, then flash flooding will
be possible (especially over the Aspen Acres (AA) burn area).

Tomorrow, it will still be relatively hot but there will be a much
better chance of showers and thunderstorms over all of the region.
With plenty of low level moisture, mid/upper level monsoon moisture
pushing in from the west, and (weak) synoptically evident short
waves, there likely will some thunderstorms that will produce heavy
rain. Guidance is painting QPF maximums in and around the AA burn
area and this area will have to be carefully watched tomorrow
afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms will likely last well into the
evening hours across the plains (and possibly the mtns). This
activity will also have the capability to produce locally heavy
convective showers.

Max temps of Upper 80s to upper 90s will prevail over the plains
tomorrow afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 122 PM MDT Mon Jul 27 2026

Wednesday will likely be a repeat performance of Tuesday, with
numerous to scattered thunderstorms, capable of producing heavy rain,
over all of the region. QPF guidance shows a better chance of
heavier precip over a good part of the region as compared to
Tuesday. Flash flooding threat may be exacerbated on Wednesday if
flash flood prone areas see heavy rain on Tuesday.

Thursday...

Scattered to likely showers are expected over the mountains with only
isolated to scattered storms over the plains. Temps will warm up a
bit with 90s to L100s over the plains.

Friday...

Similar temps to Thursday, but less pops regionwide.

Weekend...

Drier and hot, but not as hot as today or yesterday.

Looking a bit farther out...deterministic guidance hints at a
Canadian front trying to push into the region for next Tuesday-
ish. Both EC and GFS show this solution, but GFS is much more
amplified while EC has more of a glancing blow. Lets hope!
/Hodanish

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 539 PM MDT Mon Jul 27 2026

VFR conditions are expected throughout the for KALS, KCOS, and KPUB
if thunderstorms do not develop over the terminals. However, we have
two groups of PROB30 for all of the sites, one for this evening and
the next for tomorrow evening. If thunderstorms develop over the
terminal MVFR-LIFR conditions are possible. Winds will be diurnal
until they are disrupted by thunderstorm outflow.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 9 PM MDT this evening for COZ083>086-089-
093-095>099.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...HODANISH/SKELLY