126
FXUS65 KPUB 141819
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1219 PM MDT Thu May 14 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and thunderstorms expected to blossom around the Baca
  County area Thursday, with gusts up to 60 mph possible.

- Critical fire weather conditions expected for portions of the
  area Thursday afternoon.

- Pattern change Sunday through Tuesday may bring increased
  precipitation chances for much of the region.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 118 AM MDT Thu May 14 2026

Today: For Thursday, active weather continues for south central and
southeastern Colorado. Zonal flow will be in place over the region,
and within that flow, an amorphous shortwave will be drifting
eastward over the area throughout the day. This wave will bring a
subtle increase in forcing. Along with that, a downtick in moisture
is anticipated, with better moisture getting pushed to the eastern
portions of the forecast area. Given all of that, dry conditions are
expected for most throughout the day, though a highly isolated
shower or thunderstorm can`t be ruled out along the I-25 corridor as
precipitation cores try to develop along the higher terrain. With
that all said though, areas around Baca County are expected to
experience high based showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon
hours. Weak southwesterly upsloping along the Raton Mesa, coupled
with the subtle ascent of the wave, should be enough to allow for
isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms to blossom
and push eastward/northeastward over Baca County. Confidence is high
(70%) in development given strong agreement from both deterministic
and ensemble high-res guidance. With high cloud bases, large DCAPE
values >1000 J/kg, and steep low level lapse rates, strong outflow
winds are expected to be the primary hazard. Wind gusts up to 60 mph
will be possible with any more organized thunderstorms. Otherwise,
outflow winds to around 45 mph and lightning will be the primary
hazards with any showers and thunderstorms. Outside of that, fire
weather conditions are expected to materialize within the eastern
mountains and parts of the upper Arkansas River Valley, as
humidities lower with the drier air moving in, and gusty winds
developing during the afternoon hours. Beyond all of that, breezy
winds around 20 mph can be expected throughout the day, with partly
cloudy skies also expected for the region. As for temperatures,
another hot and above seasonal day is anticipated thanks to
downsloping winds. The plains will warm into the mid 80s to mid 90s,
the valleys into the upper 70s to low 80s, and the mountains into
the 50s and 60s.

Tonight: Heading into Thursday night, quieter weather makes a return
for south central and southeastern Colorado. The aforementioned
shortwave from Thursday will exit the area, with zonal flow
remaining in place over the region. With minimal forcing, and
diurnal instability waning, any showers and thunderstorms present
are expected to dissipate during the evening hours, with dry
conditions then prevailing overnight. Otherwise, as diurnal mixing
lessens, winds will weaken to around and less than 10 mph, with
skies becoming mostly clear. Temperatures overnight will continue
the mild and above seasonal trend, with the plains cooling into the
upper 40s to low 50s, the valleys into the mid 30s to mid 40s, and
the mountains into the low 30s to low 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 118 AM MDT Thu May 14 2026

Friday - Wednesday: For the long term timeframe, periods of active
weather will continue for south central and southeastern Colorado,
especially Sunday-Tuesday. Zonal flow will be in place Friday,
Saturday, and likely Wednesday, with a more troughing pattern Sunday
through Tuesday. Confidence remains high (70-80%) in this pattern,
with strong support from ensemble model guidance. Overall this
pattern will keep precipitation chances elevated along the
mountains, where forcing will remain greatest. Precipitation chances
may become more areawide Monday and Tuesday with the influence from
the troughing, but confidence remains low (30%) on this, as there is
still a bit of uncertainty on how far south the troughing digs. In
addition, at least spotty critical fire weather can be expected
through this period given an increase in flow, and therefore winds.
As of now, the day of highest concern for widespread fire weather
potential is Sunday ahead of the approaching trough. Beyond all of
that, as alluded to, breezy conditions will be in place, with partly
to mostly cloudy skies persisting. Looking at temperatures. Friday
through Sunday continue the hot and above seasonal trend. Then for
Monday through Wednesday, a cool down is anticipated as a cold front
is pushed southward Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1145 AM MDT Thu May 14 2026

VFR at all taf sites the next 24 hrs. Winds at all terminals
will likely keep a wly component through the day, with
occasional gusts 20-25 kts. CAMs suggest outflow from weak
-shra/virga over the Palmer Divide may turn winds more nly and
gusty at KCOS/KPUB around 00z-0z, then winds diminish all areas
late evening and overnight.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 7 PM MDT this evening for COZ220-222-
225.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SIMCOE
LONG TERM...SIMCOE
AVIATION...PETERSEN