726
FXUS65 KPUB 261111
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
511 AM MDT Sat Jul 26 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hot Weekend, mainly dry Sat; drier Sun.

- Increased moisture will lead to more widespread showers and
  thunderstorms beginning Monday, and especially Tuesday through
  Thursday.

- Flash flood potential looks highest Tuesday and Wednesday,
  with areas that have seen recent heavy rainfall of most
  concern.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 324 AM MDT Sat Jul 26 2025

A mainly hot and dry weekend is anticipated as the Monsoon plume
gets pinched off and drier air moves in aloft over the region. With
southwesterly flow remaining over the region and drier air in place,
temps on the plains across the lower Ark rvr valley will likely
reach into the 100s, with Sunday being a tad bit warmer than
Saturday. Temps over the plains along the ridges will be in the 90s
with larger valleys in the U80s; mtns will be in the 60s and 70s. As
for records, I do not see any max temp records being broken Sat, but
we may get within a degree or two of record max temps on Sun.

Very little, if any, precip is anticipated during the next 48 hours.
If we do see any convective showers, they will likely be in the
central mtns tomorrow. Sunday looks to be dry all areas.

Although Min RH values most areas will reach critical fire weather
values (<=15%), winds will be relatively light with diurnally driven
flow anticipated. /Hodanish

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 324 AM MDT Sat Jul 26 2025

No changes to the forecast thinking through the extended period.
Hot conditions will prevail Monday, with precipitation chances
ramping up through mid to late week. Temperatures will cool off
a bit with the increasing precipitation.

Sunday night and Monday...upper level high pressure will build
across the Missouri Valley through Monday with increasing
southerly flow across southern Colorado. This will advect
moister northward into the region. Dry conditions are forecast
Sunday night, with lows in the 60s across the Plains, and 40s
across the San Luis Valley. One last hot day expected on Monday,
with highs on the Plains in the mid 90s to lower 100s, and 80s
across the San Luis Valley. As moisture spreads northward,
scattered thunderstorms are forecast across the higher
elevations Monday afternoon, then spreading northeast into the
Palmer Divide and Raton Mesa regions during the evening, and
dissipating after sunset.

Tuesday through Thursday...upper level high pressure will sit
across the Central Plains through mid week, with multiple
embedded waves lifting north out of the Desert Southwest with
ample moisture. Thunderstorms coverage will increase through
this period, with much of southern Colorado seeing elevated
chances for precipitation. PWAT values are forecast to increase
in excess of an inch across the region, and low level dewpoints
will range in the upper 50s to lower 60s on the Plains.
Shortwave energy will lift north across Colorado each afternoon
and evening. Initial convection is forecast to develop over the
Mountains, and spread eastward during the evening hours. The
main concerns at this time will be lightning and heavy rainfall.
The flash flood potential increases Tuesday, peaking on
Wednesday, especially for areas that have seen recent heavy
rainfall. Temperatures will cool off a bit through this time
period, with 80s and 90s across the Plains.

Friday into Saturday...the upper level high is forecast to
migrate to the Desert Southwest, with an upper ridge building
north across Colorado. Flow aloft will transition from southerly
to westerly, with continued embedded upper energy moving across
Colorado. PWAT values look to fall off a bit, which will likely
impact precipitation efficiency. But we will likely continue to
see thunderstorms with locally heavy rainfall, initially over
the Mountains, and spreading into the Plains given the increased
westerly flow aloft. Temperatures will also begin to warm, back
into the 90s across the Plains.  Mozley

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 510 AM MDT Sat Jul 26 2025

VFR conditions at all three terminals (KALS, KCOS, KPUB)
through the next 24 hours. Southerly winds could gust near 20-22
kts this afternoon at KALS and KCOS.  Mozley

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...MOZLEY