159
FXUS65 KPUB 300720
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
120 AM MDT Thu Jul 30 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon,
  mainly east of I-25. If a cell does develop over the Aspen
  Acres burn scar, flash flooding may be possible, but
  confidence in this is low at this time.

- Flash flooding may be possible for area burn scars on Friday,
  along with low end severe weather.

- Drier, hot conditions for the weekend into early next week,
  then a return of moisture and flash flood potential for mid
  next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 1244 AM MDT Thu Jul 30 2026

Currently...satellite imagery early this morning shows upper
level high pressure spinning across New Mexico, with an upper
wave dropping south across Eastern Colorado. This has led to an
areas of showers and thunderstorms tracking east across the
Plains, which should exit into Kansas through 4 AM. Lightning
and locally heavy rainfall will accompany stronger storms.
Temperatures remain mild, mainly in the 60s across the Plains,
and will hold steady through sunrise, as dewpoints remain
elevated.

Today and tonight...upper level high pressure will build into
the Four Corners region this afternoon, with ridging stretching
north into Montana. Another embedded wave in northwesterly flow
will track southeast across northern Colorado and into the
Plains by the afternoon. This will lead to shower and
thunderstorm activity for this afternoon and evening across the
Plains.

For the Aspen Acres burn scar...confidence in widespread heavy
showers and thunderstorms is low. That being said, PWAT values
remain elevated near an inch, and moisture remains pooled along
the lee slopes of the Wet Mountains. The main question is
forcing, with the embedded wave tracking a bit further east on
the Plains. Most CAM guidance has cells developing by mid
afternoon in the vicinity of the burn scar, but cells don`t pick
up steam until they are further east on the Plains. Given the
moisture parameters, if a cell does develop a bit west on the
burn scar, it does have the potential to produce heavy rainfall,
and flash flooding may be possible. Opted to not issue a Flash
Flood Watch with this package given the lower confidence, but
did want to mention the risk if a cell does pop this afternoon.

For the Plains...showers and thunderstorms look to develop by
mid afternoon generally east of I-25, and coverage does not look
overly widespread. Cells that do form will have plenty of
moisture to work with and will be efficient precipitation
producers. Lack of shear and modest instability should keep
thunderstorms from reaching severe limits. Lightning, locally
heavy rainfall, gusty outflow winds near 50 mph and hail to half
an inch may accompany stronger cells. Model guidance is
consistent with tracking this activity east into Kansas through
the overnight hours.

Temperatures today will be hot, with highs climbing back into
the mid 90s to lower 100s across the Plains, while the San Luis
Valley pushes 90.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1244 AM MDT Thu Jul 30 2026

Not much change to the forecast thinking for the extended
period. The upper high retrogrades west, while an upper longwave
trough moves across the northern states by early next week.

Friday...the upper high begins to shift west across the
Intermountain West towards the Great Basin. This will shift the
upper pattern, putting northerly flow across Eastern Colorado.
An embedded wave is forecast to drop south by the afternoon,
with another round of thunderstorms for the area.

Low level surface flow on Friday will turn east to southeasterly
helping keep moisture pooled across the Plains. Shear increases
by the afternoon, and around 1000 j/kg of SBCAPE are expected
along the Eastern Mountains into the I-25 corridor.
Thunderstorms look to fire off by early afternoon across Eastern
Mountains. PWAT values remain high, and this will keep
precipitation efficiency high as well. The main concern for
Friday will be the north to south cell movement, with multiple
thunderstorms dropping south over the Eastern Mountains, into
the I-25 corridor. Flash flooding on Aspen Acres burn scar will
once again be possible, and a Flash Flood Watch may be needed.
Given the increased shear and modest instability, a few cells
could become strong to severe through the afternoon and evening,
with hail near 1 inch in diameter and wind gusts near 60 mph.
Heavy rainfall is expected with thunderstorms. This activity
will move southeast off the higher terrain and into the I-25
corridor through the evening, clearing into New Mexico
overnight.

Saturday through Monday...the upper high is forecast to stretch
from southern California, northeast into North Dakota ahead of
an upper trough over the Pacific Northwest. Drier air will work
into the region, with PWAT values falling to well under an inch
through the weekend into Monday. With the upper ridge axis
moving overhead, temperatures will warm, with upper 90s to lower
100s across the Plains, especially Sunday and Monday. Lack of
embedded energy under the upper ridge should keep shower and
thunderstorm activity to a minimum. Saturday may see the
greatest coverage, with isolated to scattered activity across
the higher terrain, with Sunday and Monday likely being mostly
dry.

Tuesday into Thursday...the upper trough is forecast to move out
of the Pacific Northwest and across the Northern Plains. A cold
front arrives on Tuesday morning, with low level flow easterly,
and advecting moisture back west across the Plains. Multiple
shortwave troughs in the westerly flow across Colorado will
likely lead to several rounds of showers and thunderstorms for
mid week, with a return of flash flood potential for the area
burn scars.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1123 PM MDT Wed Jul 29 2026

VFR conditions are anticipated during the next 24 hours at all 3 taf
sites, KPUB, KALS and KCOS. Surface Winds will be light and
diurnally driven. The only concern is there may be a passing shower
or thunderstorm at KCOS and KPUB tomorrow evening.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...HODANISH