223
FXUS65 KPUB 142333
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
533 PM MDT Wed May 14 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Mountain showers tonight and tomorrow afternoon, with dry
  conditions elsewhere.

- Breezy and mild across the region Friday through Sunday,
  isolated afternoon showers/t-storms possible over the weekend,
  mainly across the central mountains.

- Active weather pattern expected for Mon/Tue as strong upper
  low moves through the srn Rockies. Strong winds/showers/t-storms
  all possible, though precip location and amounts are still
  questionable given uncertain track of the system.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 209 PM MDT Wed May 14 2025

Tonight: Quiet weather is anticipated for most across south central
and southeastern Colorado tonight, with some mountain showers
lingering through the night. The southern fringes of a passing
trough will be pushing over the area. While greater synoptic forcing
will remain further north, orographic forcing will be ongoing and
persist through this period. This forcing, coupled with modest
moisture with the trough, will allow for isolated to widely
scattered light snow showers to blossom along the mountains. The
greatest coverage of showers will Wednesday evening when diurnal
instability is greatest, but as that lessens heading into the
overnight hours, showers will become more isolated in nature.
Elsewhere, dry conditions will prevail. Otherwise, gusty winds from
the day Wednesday will steadily lessen through the evening and
overnight hours as a surface inversion develops and limits overall
mixing. With that said though, gusty winds will persist along the
mountains as the base of the trough pushes over. Looking at
temperatures, thanks to a minor cold front that sags southward
during the evening hours, temperatures are expected to fall to
slightly below seasonal values, with the plains dropping into the
low 40s, the valleys into the mid 20s to mid 30s, and the mountains
into the upper 10s to low 20s.

Tomorrow: For Thursday, other than another round of afternoon
mountain showers, quiet weather conditions prevail for south central
and southeastern Colorado. Westerly flow will be in place over the
region behind the exiting trough. While major synoptic forcing will
be east, orographic forcing will continue. Given the orographic
forcing still ongoing, modest moisture remaining in place, and
diurnal instability developing, isolated to scattered showers and
weak thunderstorms are expected to blossom along the higher terrain
during the afternoon, with snow along the peaks. Elsewhere, dry
conditions continue. Beyond all of that, another breezy day is
anticipated, especially along the mountains, with clear skies early
becoming partly cloudy as showers and thunderstorms develop. As for
temperatures, despite the weak cold front, highs are not expected to
lower much as downsloping winds materialize during the afternoon.
With that said, the plains will warm into the 70s, the valleys into
the mid 50 to 60s, and the mountains into the 30s to low 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 209 PM MDT Wed May 14 2025

Short wave ridge across Colorado on Friday should suppress most
if not all convection over the area, though winds should stay
breezy as mid-level wly flow is rather slow to drop off. Max
temps Friday afternoon will ends up near/slightly above seasonal
averages as 700mb temps creep up a degf or two. Weak energy
ripples through the Rockies on Sat, which will likely re-fire at
least isolated convection over the higher terrain in the
afternoon, though better forcing for precip will stay north of
the area across srn WY. Max temps Sat will continue a slow
upward creep, rising a couple degf from Friday`s numbers. A fair
number of 12z deterministic/ensemble solutions lift a lead s/w
trough northward through CO on Sunday, as deep upper low takes
shape over the sern U.S. As a result, should see better coverage
of showers/thunderstorms along the Continental Divide Sun
afternoon, lesser chances farther east as drying downslope winds
develop by late day as wave lifts off to the northeast. Better
mixing will lead to warmer maxes Sun, and a few 90f readings
will reappear on the plains.

Still some significant questions regarding track of the
ejecting upper low Mon/Tue, as 12z deterministic models have
shifted back toward a potentially more impactful southern track,
offering a wetter solution for srn CO than bulk of the 00z
models/ensembles/NBM. Not ready to move back to a wetter
versions yet, but will note that taken at face value, 12z
GFS/ECMWF deterministic solutions show much heavier/widespread
precip than runs of the past few days. For now, stuck close to
the blended model forecast, which has scattered showers/t-storms
Mon/Tue along with windy conditions, and will await further
data before leaning back toward more widespread precip.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 529 PM MDT Wed May 14 2025

Westerly winds will gradually taper down at all three terminals
this evening though gusts to 35-40 kts will be possible for a
couple more hours. A northwest to north wind shift will affect
KCOS around 02-04z as a cold front enhanced by thunderstorm
outflow to the the north drops southward. Timing of this wind
shift into KCOS will need to be monitored closely as it could
occur a little earlier than 02z. KPUB will likely become more
northwesterly with time before winds decrease towards 06z. Winds
will be quicker to increase on Thursday with west northwest
winds gusting to 30 kts spreading into KCOS and KPUB around
14-15z and continue through the afternoon. KALS will see west
to southwest winds with gusts up to 25 kts pick up around or
slightly after 18z and remain gusty through the afternoon. -KT

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SIMCOE
LONG TERM...GARBEROGLIO/PETERSEN
AVIATION...KT