656
FXUS65 KPUB 281738
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1138 AM MDT Sat Jun 28 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hot and dry Today and most of Sunday, with a new system coming
  in Sunday evening and bringing wetter weather.

- Cooler monday then warming up through mid week.

- Weak Monsoon pattern develops early next week with precip
chances increasing for the mtns.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 941 AM MDT Sat Jun 28 2025

Quick update to add some isolated pops across the far eastern
plains this afternoon and eve, primarily to Kiowa County.
Incorporated latest obs and satellite data. Moore

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 303 AM MDT Sat Jun 28 2025

Today and Tonight...

Hot and generally dry conditions will continue once again today,
with highs in the mid-80s over the valleys and 90s to near 100 over
most of the plains. High pressure will linger over and south of our
area as a broad upper trough begins translating across the CONUS far
to our north. Despite dry surface conditions, some isolated
afternoon showers and thunderstorms will be possible, primarily over
and near the higher terrain, including the Palmer Divide and Raton
Mesa areas. Storms should be relatively short lives, mainly
producing gusty outflow winds and lightning. Showers dissipate into
the evening hours, with overnight lows remaining in the 50s-60s for
the plains and 40s for the valleys.

Sunday...

Warm conditions will persist into Sunday ahead of our next pattern
change. High temperatures in the afternoon will hit the 80s to mid-
90s. Mid to late-afternoon, another round of scattered showers and
thunderstorms is expected to form over the mountains. However, a
cold front will move in sometime around early evening as the upper
trough clips our area from the northeast. As the cold front pushes
south across the plains, showers and storms will spread in coverage
across the area. Strength of lingering thunderstorms, as well as
afternoon temperatures, will be dependent on the exact timing of the
front. As of now, scattered storms appear likely into the evening
hours, with the chance for more persistent rainfall and gusty winds.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 303 AM MDT Sat Jun 28 2025

.Long Term...

Sunday night...

With upslope flow developing after the front moves across, expect a
band of showers and thunderstorms to move across the eastern plains
Sunday evening. With light flow aloft and some instability, storms
should not be all that organized, but some locally heavy rain, gusty
winds and some small hail cannot be ruled out. Storms may linger
into the late evening hours over the far eastern plains.

Monday...it will be noticeably cooler across the plains with showers
increasing all areas. Overall best chance will be along the I-25
corridor late monday afternoon an dearly evening. Some locally heavy
rain is likely and there will be some modest shear, so a few
stronger storms will be possible.

Tuesday...Mtns will see the best chance of precip this day although
overall amounts will be light. Temps will start to warm up once
again with seasonable values over the region. Precip for the eastern
plains will be minimal

Wednesday...Temps continue to warm over the plains, however qpf for
the mountains along with pops will be on the increase over the mtns,
especially interior mtns as monsoon pattern becomes a bit more
developed as a trough off the west coast moves onshore and southerly
moist lower level flow develops over the southwest. Some locally
heavy rain will be likely over the interior mtns on this day with
mainly dry conditions over the plains.

Thursday into next weekend...

Trend in the guidance is temps will be cooling slightly with time
and a better chance of some precip over the plains. With flow
becoming more westerly and temps aloft cooling, the mtns should dry
out with a chance of storms over the plains. Shear is fcst to
increase so a few stronger storms can`t be ruled out. /Hodanish

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1134 AM MDT Sat Jun 28 2025

VFR conditions anticipated across much of the forecast area over the
next 24 hours, including the three main TAF sites of KCOS, KPUB and
KALS. Surface winds will generally be diurnal in direction and under
12 kts.

Isolated convection across the eastern mts, Palmer Divide and Raton
Mesa this afternoon and evening will produce virga and potentially
brief gusty winds, with the highest probability affecting KCOS.
However, confidence is too low to include in the TAF.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MOORE
SHORT TERM...GARBEROGLIO
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...MOORE