862
FXUS65 KPUB 021118
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
518 AM MDT Sat Aug 2 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warmer with another round of showers and storms today.

- Threat for strong to severe thunderstorms continues across the
  plains today.

- Warmer and more dry through the extended forecast period.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 303 AM MDT Sat Aug 2 2025

Current water vapor imagery and upper air analysis continues to
indicate modest westerly  flow aloft across the region, with upper
level high pressure building across the Desert Southwest as a broad
upper trough persists across the Pacific Northwest Coast. Water vapor
imagery has another short wave translating across the Intermountain
West at this time.

Latest model data supports increasing westerly flow aloft again
today, as the Intermountain West short wave continues to translate
east across the Northern Rockies this afternoon and into the High
Plains tonight. Models also continue to indicate drier air working
into the region, with soundings across high mountain valleys into
the I-25 Corridor indicating more inverted V profiles as low level
moisture mixes out through the afternoon. With that said, still
expecting another round of showers and thunderstorms over and near
the higher terrain this afternoon, with the aid of strong solar
insolation and some uvv associated with the passing wave, but said
storms will be higher based and less intense with HREF indicating mean
CAPE of 500 to less than 1000 j/kg across into the I-25 Corridor.

Further east, generally from La Junta eastward, lee troughing and
southerly low level flow will keep low level moisture in place, with
HREF mean CAPE of 1500-2500 j/kg. This, along with increasing shear
of 35-45kts through the afternoon supports the potential for severe
storm development, with large hail up to 2 inches in diameter, damaging
winds of 60 mph, and a non zero threat of a tornado. Models indicate
the potential for storms to line out as the push east across the far
southeast plains through the early evening, with clearing skies expected
through the overnight hours.

Temperatures look to warm slightly again today, with highs in the 80s
to lower 90s across the plains, 60s and 70s across the higher terrain
and into the low 80s across the high mountain valleys. Overnight lows
fall into 50s to low 60s across the plains, and mainly in the 30s and
40s across the higher terrain.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 303 AM MDT Sat Aug 2 2025

Upper ridge of high pressure across the region has been slightly
finicky with positioning and strength, leading to continuous minor
adjustments to the promised warning and drying trend through the
extended period.

Sunday...High pressure over the Desert SW starts to build back
towards the Four Corners on Sunday, aiding in shunting llvl moisture
eastward. However, depending on which model guidance is followed,
development of the ridge axis varies. There is a disturbance that
crosses the north central US plains on Sunday, but depending on the
placement of the ridge axis, the activity it triggers could be
farther east in NE and KS. Looking at llvl moisture, forecast
dewpoints remain right around 60F near the eastern border, and bulk
shear at around 30 kts midday increase to near 50 kts by early
evening. Therefore the potential is there, and the Marginal that SPC
has painted across the far eastern CO plains is a nod to the severe
potential. Current precip chances are just isolated Sunday afternoon
and evening, so this is a situation where there may be very little
activity at all but anything that does start could go severe with
strong gusty outflow winds and large hail. Stay tuned as this will
surely get adjusted. Plan on high temps in the 80s for the high
valleys, and mid 80s to lower 90s for the plains.

Monday and Tuesday...Upper ridge builds back into the Four Corners
with an amplified ridge axis over NM and CO. This is when the true
warming and drying set in, with good model agreement. Precip chances
will be isolated at best and tied to the higher terrain for Mon, and
current forecast for Tue is completely dry. Elevated fire weather
conditions start to develop both days, spotty for Mon but a bit more
widespread for Tue so following shifts will need to take another
look at this concern. As for high temps, look for mid 80s for the
high valleys and 980s for the plains on Mon, then mid to upper 80s
for the high valleys and 90s to around 100F for the plains on Tue.

Wednesday through Friday...Continued very hot with afternoon
readings expected to be above seasonal normals. The upper ridge
starts to flatten, with multiple shortwaves to the north allowed
greater influence for CO. Precip chances for Wed continue to look
isolated at best, mainly across the higher terrain, but then
convection chances increase for Thu and Fri with scattered showers
and thunderstorms across the mts and isolated convection for the
plains. Moore

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 512 AM MDT Sat Aug 2 2025

Satellite imagery showing some low clouds spreading across
eastern El Paso County early this morning, so included a TEMPO
for IFR cigs for KCOS from 13z-15z. Otherwise, VFR conditions
anticipated for much of the forecast area over the next 24 hrs,
including the three main TAF sites of KCOS, KPUB and KALS.
Another round of afternoon showers and thunderstorms can be
expected over and near the higher terrain, however with drier
air filtering into the region, storms that can develop near the
terminals will be higher based, with gusty outflow winds up to
40kts the main threat. The best chances of storms/outflow
affecting the terminals will be at COS and PUB from 20Z-01Z, and
will maintain PROB30 in the TAFS at this time. Also mentioned
VCSH for KALS from 20z-02z.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...MOORE