304
FXUS65 KPUB 301117
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
517 AM MDT Sun Aug 30 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Another influx of monsoon moisture will bring an uptick in
  thunderstorms Sunday along the Continental Divide, and Monday
  all of the mountain burn scars.

- Drier and warmer for mid week with more isolated thunderstorm activity.

- Moisture and thunderstorm chances increase again next weekend
  over the mountains

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 1252 AM MDT Sun Aug 30 2026

A weak disturbance embedded within an active monsoon plume across
Colorado will keep isolated showers going across the mountain areas
into the morning hours with some persistent mid/high clouds across
the remainder of southern CO. The orientation of the monsoon plume
doesn`t really change much for today with more energy riding through
the flow glancing by to the west and north during the afternoon. The
CAMS suggest the most widespread thunderstorm activity will be along
the Continental Divide again today where highest precipitable waters
(up to 140% of normal) will reside.  East of the mountains, there
will be a marginal increase in surface dew points, but CAPE only
increases subtly, with most areas seeing under 500 J/kg with some
pockets of up to 750 J/kg in the HREF means.  Inverted V soundings
suggest more of a wind risk from high based thunderstorms across the
plains, while the heavy rainfall risk and potential for flash
flooding will be more likely along/west of the Continental Divide.
Will need to watch Willow burn scar for this, but signals don`t seem
strong enough to require any flash flood watches at this point.
Overall, the forecast will be very similar to Saturday though
temperatures may be a degree or two cooler given the cloud cover.

Thunderstorms will persist into the overnight hours over the
mountains within the active monsoon plume and under the trajectory
of weak embedded disturbances.  This will keep overnight lows on the
warm side once again, even across some of the cooler mountain valley
locations. Another cool front will push through the southeast plains
during overnight, reinforced by thunderstorm outflows from northeast
CO convection.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1252 AM MDT Sun Aug 30 2026

The most active day of the period for thunderstorms will be
Monday as the next disturbance embedded within the southwesterly
monsoon moisture feed moves across the area during the
afternoon and evening hours. Precipitable waters increase to
150% of normal along the Continental Divide. Meanwhile,
southeasterly surface winds across the plains will bring a
return of dew points in the 50s, boosting CAPEs to a little over
1000 J/kg across eastern portions of the southeast plains in
some of the higher res models. This may boost storm strengths
and precipitation efficiencies across the southeast mountains
and plains as thunderstorms develop over the mountains during
the afternoon and spread eastward into the southeast plains
through the evening and overnight periods. There are some
differences in the models with available low level moisture and
resultant storm coverage across the southeast mountains and
plains, with GFS on the drier side of the spectrum. Best chance
for heavy rains will still be out west along the Continental
Divide where Willow Creek burn scar may be the most vulnerable
flash flood risk. Aspen Acres carries a bit more uncertainty
where probabilities of QPF over Flash Flood thresholds is less
than 20% in the latest runs. Will need to monitor this closely
as the conceptually the risk could be higher should the low
level moisture return be as robust as some of the high res
models suggest. Flash Flood Watches may become necessary for
if models hone in towards a wetter solution. For now axis of
heavier precipitation appears to stay across western and
northern Colorado.

A drying and warming trend returns for Tuesday through Thursday with
mainly isolated thunderstorms possible during the afternoons and
evenings.  Temperatures rebound back into the mid to upper 90s by
late week.

Another batch of monsoon moisture spreads northward across CO late
week into next weekend in southwesterly flow aloft.  This should
bring another increase in thunderstorm probabilities across the
mountains beginning Friday. Low level moisture remains rather
lack luster across the plains which should keep thunderstorms
more isolated and higher based with gusty winds, and localized
light to moderate rainfall possible. Temperatures will remain
above normal. -KT

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 516 AM MDT Sun Aug 30 2026

Increasing southwest flow aloft aiding in increased monsoonal
moisture advection, which in turn will produce enhanced mid and
high level cloudiness across the forecast area through the TAF
period.

VFR conditions anticipated across much of the forecast area
over the next 24 hrs, including the three main TAF sites of
KCOS, KPUB and KALS. SW surface flow will pick up by 17z-18z,
then included PROB30 wording for variable gusts to 35 kt and
-TSRA at all three terminal sites starting around 20z and
 lastingthrough 02z.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...KT
AVIATION...MOORE