341
FXUS65 KPUB 222331
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
531 PM MDT Thu May 22 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hot, dry and breezy with strong to severe thunderstorms
  possible near the Kansas border Friday

- Cool and unsettled, with strong to severe thunderstorms
  possible over the Holiday weekend, especially Sunday.

- Warmer for Tuesday through Thursday with daily afternoon and
  evening thunderstorms Southeast mountains and plains.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 211 PM MDT Thu May 22 2025

Temperatures have been cooler today (70s) across the plains as
post frontal upslope flow continues to advect lower 50 dew
points westward towards the mountains. Radar shows some
convective development beginning to fire over the Palmer Divide
and Raton Ridge where mesoanalysis shows surface based CAPE up
to 1000 J/kg. As low level east to southeasterly flow increases
this evening aided by a low level jet, some high res models
develop isolated thunderstorms along the mountain/plains
interface which move eastward into the plains during the
evening hours. Sufficient shear (40kts) will be present for
strong to severe storms though timing of low level moisture
return will be key. If lower 50 dew points can make it far
enough westward soon enough, then some hail around 1 inch in
diameter will be possible. Downdraft CAPE running around 1000
J/kg will also support outflow winds up to 60 mph. Activity
spreads eastward overnight and diminishes towards morning. Some
high res models suggest stratus will briefly develop and spread
westward into the mountains by morning.

Meanwhile the valleys and interior mountains will stay largely
dry. Give low dew points and clear skies, have cooled off valley
min temperatures for the Upper Rio Grande.

Tomorrow will see increasing southwest flow which will spread
dry, breezy and warmer conditions into the mountains, valleys
and most of the plains during the afternoon. The dry line will
mix out to near the Kansas border in the afternoon where one or
two storms may develop before pushing quickly off into KS. Some
high res models suggest a sharp dryline with 60 dew points and
1500 J/kg of CAPE along and just east of it. Combined with deep
layer shears in the 40-50kt range, one or two storms could
quickly become severe. Again, it will all hinge on the position
of the dry line, which sweeps eastward into KS during the late
afternoon before returning back westward overnight. Will
maintain some isolated pops along the KS border for now.
Otherwise, it will be unseasonably warm with mid 80s to lower
90s across the plains, 60s and 70s for the valleys, and 50s for
the higher mountains.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 211 PM MDT Thu May 22 2025

Dry line/cold front gets pushed back westward Friday night into
the southeast mountains with the low clouds and even some
sprinkles/drizzle developing by Saturday morning across the
plains. Saturday will be cooler and potentially more stable
across the plains beneath a capping inversion. Upper trough is
still well off to the west across NV, but translates eastward,
ejecting some weak shortwave energy across CO. This may help
fire off isolated to scattered thunderstorms across the
southeast mountains during the afternoon. Question is whether
sufficient heating and destabilization will occur to maintain
convection as it moves off the mountains into the plains. Deep
layer shears will be an impressive 50 kts and there is the
potential for mean CAPE values of 1500 J/kg along the eastern
mountains. Some high res models struggle to produce any
convection, though suspect we will see at least the potential
for some over the mountains where elevated heating will occur.
Broad brush marginal risk for severe thunderstorms looks good
for now, with higher probabilities over the Palmer Divide where
cooler air aloft with the approaching upper trough may help
weaken the cap some. Large hail and damaging winds will be
likely.

Farther west, it will be dry and breezy again above normal
temperatures across the southwest mountains and San Luis Valley.

Sunday appears to be a typical day 2 severe set up, though once
again the degree of heating and available instability east of
the mountains will be key in the areal extent of severe
thunderstorm potential. Temperatures will stay on the cool side
with a good chance for showers and thunderstorms over the
mountains and adjacent plains forced by the approaching upper
trough. Overrunning should keep showers and thunderstorms going
through most of the night across the plains, though activity
will be gradually diminishing during the overnight hours. Sunday
will be cooler with afternoon showers and thunderstorms out
west as well as the upper trough impacts the area.

Northwest flow and residual moisture over the region will keep
daily showers and thunderstorms in the forecast for Monday with
cooler temperatures expected. Shortwave upper ridge translates
in for Tuesday ahead of a messy upper trough for mid week.
Overall, temperatures will gradually warm with daily chances for
showers and thunderstorms focused across the southeast
mountains and plains. -KT

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 529 PM MDT Thu May 22 2025

KCOS: E-SE winds persisting through the night, remaining gusty to 26
kts through 02z. Kept prob30 mention of -shra in the area developing
and producing variable winds 20g40 due to SE moist flow continuing,
and also maintained mention of MVFR to IFR cigs overnight. This may
need to be amended later this eve, but potential is there. Southerly
surface flow developing tomorrow morning after 16z, with clearing
skies and VFR conditions.

KPUB: VFR conditions expected over the next 24 hrs. E-SE winds
gusting to 24 kts through 02z, then remaining easterly through the
night generally <12 kts. W-Sw winds developing tomorrow morning
after 15z.

KALS: VFR conditions expected over the next 24 hrs. Gusty SW winds
gusting to 22-25 kts until 02z, then redeveloping tomorrow afternoon
by 19z.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...KT
AVIATION...MOORE