510
FXUS65 KPUB 152317
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
517 PM MDT Wed Jul 15 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Increased chances of mountain thunderstorms through Friday.

- Pockets of heavy rainfall could cause flash flood concerns over
recent burn scar areas.

- Slightly drier this weekend, with moisture returning to all of SE
Colorado next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1238 PM MDT Wed Jul 15 2026

Showers and thunderstorms will continue across the mountains through
the rest of the day and into early tonight. Main impact concern will
be flash flooding over the Willow burn scar, due to pockets of
moderate to heavy rainfall.

For Thursday, we will continue to see an uptick in available
moisture, leading to more widespread coverage for showers and
thunderstorms over the mountains. Not too dissimilar from today,
showers will fire over the Continental Divide by around midday,
increasing in coverage through the afternoon hours. Easterly flow
across the region will keep storms tied to the mountains, meaning
that the plains will once again remain dry. With PWATs steadily
increasing over the region, chances for heavy rainfall will continue
to increase as well, meaning that any storm over a burn scar area
will be capable of producing flash flooding conditions. Main area of
concern will again be the Willow fire. Temperatures will be similar
again as well, with 80s to mid-90s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1238 PM MDT Wed Jul 15 2026

Uptick in thunderstorm activity will continue on Friday, with PWATs
creeping towards the 150% of normal range. Best chances for heavy
rain will be over the peak of the Continental Divide, with the main
risk area being the Willow burn scar. Storms look to get a little
strong as well, with pockets of 800-1000 /kg of CAPE during the
afternoon, along with 20-25 knots of bulk shear, which further
increases chances for flash flooding. Given the east to northeast
steering flow, still expecting the plains to remain dry.

Over the weekend, the upper high builds overhead more, pushing the
moisture plume a bit further west. As a result, the southeast
mountains will remain mostly dry through the weekend, with only
scattered POPs over the Continental Divide. Temperatures will also
warm a bit, reaching high-90s to low-100s over the far eastern
plains by Sunday afternoon.

Moving into next week, recycles monsoon moisture is expected to move
around the high as it shifts. With PWATs increasing across the
state, and a cold front moving onto the plains on Monday, POPs will
spread over our entire CWA. Chances for wetting rains over the
eastern plains will increase Monday evening towards the middle of
next week, with showers and thunderstorms possible each day.
Meanwhile, temperatures will drop a few degrees as well, settling
right around seasonal averages. Flash flooding over our burn scars
will continue to be our main concern.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 515 PM MDT Wed Jul 15 2026

VFR conditions are anticipated during the next 24 hours at all 3 taf
sites, KPUB, KALS and KCOS. Surface winds will continue to be
anonymously from and easterly component most of the fcst period
and will be gusty at times during the afternoon and early
evening. Some isolated thunder/gusty outflow will be possible
during the late afternoon and early evening time periods at
KALS.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GARBEROGLIO
LONG TERM...GARBEROGLIO
AVIATION...HODANISH