074
FXUS65 KPUB 151140
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
440 AM MST Sun Feb 15 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong winds are likely across the eastern plains and Sangre
  de Cristo Mountains Tuesday.

- Multiple days of critical fire weather conditions are still
  expected across the plains, with Tuesday remaining the biggest
  concern.

- Snow and rain showers are expected across the mountains and
  valleys next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 1216 AM MST Sun Feb 15 2026

Today: The end of the weekend brings quiet weather to south central
and southeastern Colorado. A ridge of high pressure will be in
place. Given subsidence and drier air with this feature, dry
conditions are expected. Otherwise, partly cloudy skies and breezy
winds are anticipated, especially across the plains as a tighter
pressure gradient develops in response to lee troughing.
Temperatures Sunday will quickly start to rebound to well above
seasonal values as downsloping winds start to take place, with the
plains warming into the 60s to low 70s, the valleys into the 50s,
and the mountains into the 30s and 40s.

Tonight: Sunday night brings another period of quiet weather to
south central and southeastern Colorado. The aforementioned ridge
will remain in place, and with subsidence and drier air also still
in place, dry conditions will continue to prevail. Otherwise, partly
cloudy skies remain, with winds becoming lights for most, though
staying gusty along the mountains as flow aloft does slowly increase
in response to an incoming pattern change. Temperatures overnight
will stay fairly mild and above seasonal lows given some mixing from
winds and cloud cover, with the plains cooling into the 30s and 40s,
and the mountains and valleys into the 10s and 20s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1216 AM MST Sun Feb 15 2026

Monday: The start of the week brings the first day of active weather
returning to south central and southeastern Colorado. The ridge in
place will be pushing east as a strong jet approaches. During this
period, westerly to southwesterly flow will start increasing,
bringing an uptick in orographic forcing. Given this, and at least
modest moisture in place, snow showers are expected to start
blossoming along the higher terrain during the day, and steadily
increase in coverage. Elsewhere though, dry conditions will continue
to prevail. Outside of that, winds will become breezy again for
many, but especially across the valleys and mountains, with partly
cloudy conditions persisting. Along with that, given increasing dry
downsloping winds, critical fire weather conditions are likely, but
mostly along the I-25 corridor, where stronger gap flow winds will
develop. Looking at temperatures, a warm and well above seasonal day
is anticipated, especially across the eastern plains given the
downsloping winds.

Monday Night - Thursday: For the midweek-ish period, active weather
continues for south central and southeastern Colorado. Synoptically,
a strong jet streak will be in place over the region, bringing a
prolonged period of strong westerly to southwesterly winds. With
continued strong and consistent agreement between model guidance,
confidence is high to very high (70+%) in this pattern evolution.
Looking at precipitation, with the flow pattern in place, persistent
orographic forcing will be ongoing. Given this, and at least modest
moisture in place, showers are expected across the mountains and
valleys each day, with the greatest coverage of snow showers
remaining along the Continental Divide. For the plains though, dry
conditions are anticipated to prevail given strong downsloping
winds. Speaking of winds, this stretch of days will be breezy, with
each afternoon becoming gusty as stronger winds aloft mix to the
surface. The strongest winds are expected Tuesday, as the core of
the jet streak pushes over the region. There is at least medium (50-
60%) confidence in winds being in excess of 60 mph across the plains
and winds being in excess of 75 mph along the Sangre de Cristo
Mountains. To go along with all of that, critical fire weather
conditions will be a concern each day. Tuesday still looks to be the
day of greatest concern given the best overlap of widespread strong
winds and low humidity values across the plains, where extreme
critical fire weather conditions will be possible. Beyond all of
that, temperatures will remain warm and above seasonal values, with
partly cloudy skies over the plains, and mostly cloudy skies across
the mountains and valleys.

Friday - Saturday: For the end of the week and into the week, active
weather continues for south central and southeastern Colorado. A
pattern change is anticipated during this period, as the jet streak
in place will finally break, and more traditional troughing will
develop over the area. Overall this pattern will bring increased
precipitation chances to the region, but especially across the
mountains where forcing will be greatest. Outside of that, increased
cloud cover and breezy conditions are expected as the system passes
over. Looking at temperatures, with the more unsettled pattern, a
cool down is expected, with temperatures falling to around more
seasonal values.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 437 AM MST Sun Feb 15 2026

VFR conditions are likely during the next 24 hours at all 3 taf
sites, KPUB, KALS and KCOS. The only minor concern I have is
some GF forming around KALS early this AM. However, high clouds
were moving over KALS at this time and this should significantly
decrease the GF concern.

Otherwise, sfc winds winds should be light and diurnally driven
during the next 24 hours.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Wind Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening
for COZ072>075.
Fire Weather Watch from Monday morning through Monday
afternoon for COZ222-226>230.
Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday
evening for COZ226>237.
High Wind Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday afternoon
for COZ086>089-093-095>099.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SIMCOE
LONG TERM...SIMCOE
AVIATION...HODANISH