854
FXUS65 KPUB 120350
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
950 PM MDT Mon May 11 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Mainly dry and warm weather continues on Tuesday

- Isolated, high terrain showers and thunderstorms return
  Wednesday, while temperatures remain well above average

- High fire danger many locations on Thursday, as gusty winds
  develop and relative humidity falls

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1256 PM MDT Mon May 11 2026

Upper level ridge will remain over the western U.S. tonight and
Tue, while weak surface front slips through the plains Tue
morning as s/w trough dives into the Great Lakes. Not much
cooling behind the front, and expect max temps Tue afternoon to
end up within a few degf of Monday`s numbers. Some hints in the
CAMs of weak afternoon convection along the Palmer Divide and
across nrn Teller County as shallow low level moisture/instability
return, and will run with some very low pops in these areas from
mid-afternoon into the evening.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 1256 PM MDT Mon May 11 2026

Ridge slides eastward through CO Wed, with a modest increase in
mid-level moisture over the higher terrain late in the day as
flow turns more s-swly. At the surface, s-se winds persist on
the plains, with modest low level moisture (dewpoints in the
40s) returning. Should be enough instability (CAPE 300-500 J/KG)
for isolated storms over the mountains Tue afternoon, and
perhaps a storm or 2 could drift into the I-25 corridor by
evening. Deeper instability (CAPE near 1000 J/KG) lies farther
east on the plains Wed afternoon, though with weak forcing and
at least some moderate CIN to overcome, most models keep areas
east of I-25 dry, which looks reasonable at this point. Gusty
winds will be the main feature of any convection, as low levels
remain rather dry. Max temps Wed again well above average, and
some low 90s are possible across the lower Arkansas Valley.

Dry, hot and increasingly windy on Thu, as strong s/w trough
moves through the nrn Rockies and dry wly flow develops across
CO. Will likely need fire weather highlights at many locations
as band of 30 kt 7h winds rotates through the state and
relative humidity falls toward 10 percent. Max temps will soar
into the 80s/90s at lower elevations, with snow-melting 60s/70s
mountains.

For the Fri-Sun period, fast wly flow continues across the nrn
U.S. with Colorado on the srn periphery of the main jet, then a
trend toward more of a wrn U.S./Rockies upper trough may develop
next week, though model/ensemble spread is rather large.
Weather-wise, pattern looks breezy to windy at times into the
weekend, with high fire danger through the period. Might be just
enough moisture for some high based convection over mainly the
mountains each afternoon, though precip amounts through Sunday
look light. Weak cold front will knock back temps slightly on
Fri, then well above average readings return for the weekend.
Some hints at perhaps a stronger front and better low level
moisture return late Sun into Mon, though details remain murky.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 950 PM MDT Mon May 11 2026

VFR conditions are expected at KALS, KCOS, and KPUB through 24
hours. Winds at KCOS and KPUB will retain a northerly component
through tonight, shifting between NW and NE, turning southeasterly
Tuesday afternoon. Mid-level clouds will move in and out but should
remain well within VFR. While data shows a low chance for a few
showers over the Palmer Divide near 00Z Tuesday afternoon,
confidence is currently too low to include in this round of TAFS.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...PETERSEN
AVIATION...GARBEROGLIO