645
FXUS65 KPUB 052118
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
Issued by National Weather Service Denver CO
318 PM MDT Thu Jun 5 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong to severe storm risk continues across the plains
  through the evening.

- Scattered showers and storms again on Friday, with some
  strong to severe storms possible.

- Daily afternoon showers and thunderstorms return to southern
  Colorado late this weekend through the end of the period.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 316 PM MDT Thu Jun 5 2025

Severe risk continues this afternoon into the evening, with the
current Severe Thunderstorm and Tornado Watches still very much
valid at this time. Intensity of thunderstorm has currently
come down, though coverage of these storms continues to increase
especially across the Pikes Peak region. This area along with
areas across the far southeast plains will likely continue to
note additional development through the afternoon and early
evening hours. Strong focus via surface trough/boundaries and
aided in this development today and will continue to do so,
especially as well defined short wave energy pushes overhead.

For the Pikes Peak region, the I-52 corridor, and areas just to
the east of the I-25 corridor, the risk of severe storms
remains as steep lapse rates, CAPE up to 1000-1500 j/kg and bulk
shear of 30- 35kt are still in place. However, latest RAP
analysis is showing stability increasing in this area, which
makes sense given the persistent precip development so far
today. If this continues, could see the coverage of any stronger
storm development stay low. For the southeast plains, the
strongest development has shifted more into KS though there
still are some cells developing along that boundary. While the
risk of additional severe storms may be more isolated in these
areas this afternoon, think the risk of storms capable of
producing large hail, damaging winds, and even a tornado or two
remain possible. As the wave pushes overhead, should see 700mb
flow increase along with the current ongoing WAA. As this
occurs, should see additional development on this boundary and
even further to the south along an additional trough axis near
the CO/KS border. Highest values of instability and shear remain
in this area, which will again support all hazards. Latest RAP
analysis shows highest sig tor and sig hail values in this
location, which short term guidance shows increasing through the
remaining afternoon/evening. Again, given these trends, will
continue to message the continued risk of severe storms.

Coverage and intensity of storms will wane into the evening
hours, but do think at least an isolated severe storm will
remain possible over the southeast plains. Expect a similar
pattern along with similar strong to severe storm risks,
especially as moisture rich air remains situated across southern
Colorado. This will help keep the instability axis in place and
if not even further to the west into the I-25 corridor. This
would bring the risk of strong to severe storms back to most of
south central and southeast Colorado Friday afternoon into the
evening hours.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 316 PM MDT Thu Jun 5 2025

Over the weekend, deep upper low develops over the upper
Midwest, while upper level ridge builds over the wrn U.S. With
slow build in mid level heights and subsidence behind departing
upper trough, Saturday still looks like a down day for
convection, as both wind shear and deep instability will be
lacking, and many models/ensembles show only isolated tsra
coverage Sat afternoon/evening. On Sun, return of southeast
upslope flow behind a cold front suggests increasing
shower/thunderstorm chances, especially southeast mountains and
plains. For Mon/Tue/Wed, northwest flow aloft gradually
transitions back to wly as upper level ridge migrates through
the Rockies. Pattern would suggest a continuation of
afternoon/evening thunderstorms through the period, with
mountain convection during the day, moving e-se across the
plains each evening. Building heights/temps under the ridge
should boost temperatures back to near seasonal averages, with a
few spots on the plains around 90f by midweek.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1156 AM MDT Thu Jun 5 2025

Relatively quiet in the near term, though showers are already
developing across portions of southwest Colorado. This current
activity will continue to develop through the afternoon hours,
increasing in both coverage and intensity. No real big changes
to the TAFs at this time, mainly with regards to the
thunderstorm chances this afternoon into the early evening
hours. Did adjust COS to go with a tempo for thunder, as
confidence is increasing across this location by 20z. While
scattered showers may continue into the early evening time
frame, felt confident narrowing down the window for thunder at
COS. Will continue to monitor vis and thunderstorm intensity, as
I could see vis lower than the currently forecast 3sm could
occur.

Across PUB, didn`t have much confidence to change the current
PROB30 for thunder but will continue to monitor the need to go
with a small tempo group. Similarly, didn`t make many changes to
ALS. Contemplated removing the thunder as it could easily stay
to the north but given there is still a low chance, maintained
it in the forecast. Lastly, MVFR and IFR ceilings settle later
tonight into Friday morning for COS and PUB. No real big changes
made here, as a southeast to east wind will likely keep these
ceilings in place through the period.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RODRIGUEZ
LONG TERM...RODRIGUEZ/PETERSEN
AVIATION...RODRIGUEZ