476
FXUS65 KPUB 231205
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
605 AM MDT Sat Aug 23 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Much cooler today, with more showers and thunderstorms by the
  afternoon and evening. A couple could become strong to severe
  on the Plains this evening.

- Cooler and active weather likely for much of next week, with
  daily shower and thunderstorm development over south central
  and southeast Colorado.

- There`s at least a low to medium chance for strong to severe
  storms, along with heavy rainfall and localized flooding.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 314 AM MDT Sat Aug 23 2025

Currently...satellite imagery early this morning shows an upper high
spinning over northern Arizona, with energy dropping southeast
across Colorado around the periphery of the high.  Radar has an area
of light to moderate rainfall associated with this upper wave across
the I-25 corridor, with activity dropping southeast through the
early morning hours.  Temperatures are mild across the Plains with
60s to lower 70s, and cloud cover will likely keep temperatures
elevated through day break.

Rest of this morning...the upper wave will continue to drop
southeast with the rain and isolated thunderstorms moving southeast
across the Plains.  Areas along the I-25 corridor will have the best
chances at seeing precipitation, with QPF amounts of up to a half
inch possible under embedded heavier cores.  Can`t rule out an
isolated lightning strike on the Plains.  High-res model guidance is
in good agreement with this area of precipitation dissipating by
sunrise as the upper wave moves away from the area.

Today...not much change expected with the upper pattern, with the
upper high sitting over Utah.  Two pieces of energy will impact the
region; one across the western portion of the state, and  a second
piece late this afternoon dropping into the Palmer Divide.  Moisture
remains in place, with southeasterly low level flow across the
region.  Dewpoints look to remain in the upper 50s to lower 60s
across the Plains, and the San Luis Valley will see upper 40 to low
50 dewpoints.  PWAT values are expected to remain greater than an
inch across the region.  Do anticipate a bit of clearing this
afternoon, which will help destabilize the environment this
afternoon.  CAPE values in excess of 1000 j/kg are likely, and 0-6
km shear looks to be around 35 kts by this afternoon.  Expect
thunderstorms development across the higher elevations with the
first piece of energy by late morning, and prevailing through the
afternoon.  Out west, a couple of storms could become strong, with
strong outflow winds and hail near half an inch possible.  Locally
heavy rainfall will accompany thunderstorms, and could lead to flash
flooding in flood prone areas and burn scars.

Further east, with the second piece of energy dropping into the
region, expected shower and thunderstorms development to be delayed
until mid to late afternoon.  Given the slightly later convective
initialization, CAPE could rise to near 1800 j/kg across the Pikes
Peak Region.  Thunderstorms that develop could become strong to
severe, with wind gusts near 60 mph and hail to an inch in diameter.
Locally heavy rainfall could lead to flooding in flood prone areas
by late afternoon.

Temperatures today will be a good 10-15 degrees cooler this
afternoon, with 70s to lower 80s across the Plains.  Highs across
the San Luis Valley will reach into the 70s.

Tonight...the upper high will continue to sit across Utah, with
energy dropping southeast across southern Colorado.  The second
piece of energy will track southeast off the Palmer Divide, and
across the Plains through the overnight hours.  A few strong to
possibly severe storms will be possible during the evening hours,
with convection that moves into the Plains.  After sunset, with the
loss of daytime heating, we should see a decent area of
precipitation move across I-25 corridor and into the Plains,
clearing late tonight into Sunday morning.  The main threats with
stronger storms on the Plains will be wind gusts to 60 mph, hail to
1 inch in diameter and locally heavy rainfall.  The severe threat
should diminish after sunset.  Overnight lows tonight will into the
mid 50s to near 60 on the Plains, and lower 50s across the San Luis
Valley. Mozley

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 314 AM MDT Sat Aug 23 2025

Active weather continues at the start of the period, with no
real big change for the remainder of the week. Northwest flow
aloft will persist across the region, ushering in daily mid
level energy and shower/thunderstorm development. Will see the
ridge break down on Sunday, with slightly more energetic mid
level flow anticipated on this day. Ongoing WAA Sunday morning
will support shower and thunderstorm development early in the
morning, however, at this time this looks to stay just to the
east in Kansas. Precip chances do quickly increase by midday
though, initially over the higher terrain. As this anticipated
energy pushes overhead and low/mid easterly flow increases,
should see showers and thunderstorms spill into the I-25
corridor.

Initial development over the higher terrain looks to remain sub
severe, though any development moving into the I-25 corridor
will encounter a more unstable environment, especially as low
level easterlies ramp up in response to the short wave energy.
Some uncertainty with where the instability axis will set up but
at this time, it looks to be situated along and northeast of a
Springs to La Junta and Springfield line. In this location both
HREF and REFS showing higher probs for CAPE approaching 1000
j/kg and bulk shear in excess of 30kt. This will support a
strong to severe thunderstorm risk over the plains Sunday
afternoon into the evening, especially as there is a low to
medium chance for higher CAPE and shear during this time. PWATS
in excess of an inch with this instability will also support the
risk for at least localized heavy rainfall and flooding on
Sunday.

No real big change in the large scale pattern moving into
Monday and Tuesday, keeping precip chances high for most of the
area. A cooler air mass will work its way in though and bring
well below normal temps to the region on these days. Will need
to keep an eye on how instability evolves during this period, as
its looking to shift more over the higher terrain and possibly
lower. Not quite confident on this trend though and will
continue to keep a close eye given the likely forcing for ascent
and additional precip development. Ridge does appear to shift
east and eventually flatten by the middle/end of next week,
bringing a shift to more of a west to southwest flow aloft. Will
see temps warm slightly though still stay below normal for this
time of the year. Moisture doesn`t really go anywhere and looks
to help support continued daily shower and thunderstorm
development across the region.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 555 AM MDT Sat Aug 23 2025

Rain has since pushed to the east of the terminals early this
morning, with VFR conditions in place. Expect these drier/VFR
conditions for most of the morning, however, am keeping a close
eye on expanding cloud cover over and near PUB and COS. Given
recent trends, did keep the high end MVFR ceilings in the TAFs
for this morning and would expect clearing by late morning.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop over the higher
terrain this afternoon, and then likely push off the mountains.
Confidence with direct impacts is still on the lower side, so
have maintained the Prob30 at all sites this afternoon. Precip
development should lessen through the evening hours. Winds will
generally be light and diurnally driven, though steadier winds
with some gusts are possible this afternoon.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...RODRIGUEZ
AVIATION...RODRIGUEZ