217
FXUS65 KPUB 060030
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
630 PM MDT Sun Oct 5 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated light showers likely for the plains tonight and tomorrow.

- Cool and cloudy for the plains tomorrow, with warm and mostly
  clear skies for the valleys and mountains.

- Remaining Cool Tuesday, then quickly warming up for mid/late week.

- Not much precip expected with this cooler airmass.

- Wet this upcoming weekend in the mtns?

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 627 PM MDT Sun Oct 5 2025

Based on unexpected burst of convection currently over El Paso
County forced by deepening upslope flow, will be updating all
forecasts to include at least a mention of -tsra this evening.
Models suggest most activity will end up north of the area later
this evening, but given their failure to to forecast ongoing
activity, confidence in any solution is low.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 211 PM MDT Sun Oct 5 2025

Tonight: Sunday night brings mild and cloudy conditions to the
plains, with dry and cool conditions elsewhere. Southwesterly flow
along the base of a positively tilted trough will be in place over
south central and southeastern Colorado. While this flow will bring
modest orographic forcing, no major forcing is expected. Along with
that, only modest moisture will be in place as the southwesterly
flow persist over the area. With no strong forcing and meager
moisture, dry conditions are expected for the valleys and mountains,
though some isolated showers will remain possible along the central
mountains where orographics will be slightly increased. As for the
plains, a slightly wetter period is anticipated. This pattern will
shove a cold front southward this evening, and surface winds will
become easterly and upslope after its passage. With saturated low
levels, and weak upsloping, spritzy light rain showers are likely
across the plains overnight. In addition, winds will be breezy
across the plains after FROPA, with wind gusts around 20-30 mph,
with light winds around and less than 10 mph elsewhere. Outside of
all of that, cloudy conditions and mild temperatures are anticipated
for the plains, with clear and cold conditions for the valleys and
mountains. Looking at temperatures, the plains will remain slightly
above seasonal lows values due to the cloud cover, with temperatures
falling into the mid 40s. As for the for the valleys and mountains,
temperatures will be more seasonal and drop into the 20s to low 30s.

Tomorrow: For Monday, not much change from Sunday night, with cloudy
and showery conditions for the plains and dry and warmer elsewhere.
Southwesterly flow along the base of a trough will remain in place,
bringing modest orographic forcing, though no major synoptic
forcing. Along with that, moisture content will remain low given the
continued southwesterly flow. Given all of this, dry conditions are
anticipated for the mountains and valleys. Then for the plains, a
slightly wetter period is expected. Surface winds will remain
easterly behind the Sunday evening cold front, allowing for
persistent, though weak, upsloping into the terrain. With low levels
remaining saturated, and meager surface upsloping, another period of
light drizzly rain showers is anticipated for plains. Beyond all of
that, the plains will remain cloudy throughout the day with
relatively light winds around 10 mph, with mostly clear and breezy
conditions for the valleys and mountains. As for temperatures, the
plains are expected to remain below seasonal high values given the
cloud cover and frontal passage, with highs in the mid 50s to low
60s. Looking at the mountains and valleys, the valleys will warm
into the 60s to low 70s, with the mountains rising into the 40s and
50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 306 AM MDT Sun Oct 5 2025

Monday night winds will be more upslope across the plains and low
clouds and especially fog may be more widespread. Dense fog could
occur over parts of the Pikes Peak Region (Monument Hill). Lift will
be a bit better over the region and some light showers will be
possible across the plains Monday night into Tuesday.

Tuesday will continue to be cool with lesser clouds as the day wears
on. Expect mainly 60s plains and around 70 larger valleys.

For Wednesday into the weekend, ridging builds over the region and
it will warm up quickly once again. The big unknown for the upcoming
weekend is a tropical cyclone (or the moisture associated with one)
will possibly impact the region, especially in the mountains. we
will have to wait and see how this plays out. In the meantime, Wed
through Friday should be mainly dry, with best chance of some
showers in the mountains.

Beyond next week looks quite cool. /Hodanish

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 558 PM MDT Sun Oct 5 2025

At KALS, VFR the next 24 hrs. Period of gusty e-se winds
overnight after 03z as easterly flow deepens east of the
mountains and spills into the San Luis Valley. Winds then turn
back s-sw 18z-19z, with a few gusts to 20 kts.

At KCOS and KPUB, lowering VFR cigs this evening as gusty e-ne
winds persist. Cigs eventually become MVFR at KCOS by 07z and
KPUB around 10z as air mass continues to moisten. A few model
soundings show potential for a period of IFR cigs at KCOS
10z-18z, though overall model consensus keeps things MVFR and
will follow this for now. Low risk of some brief drizzle or
light rain at KCOS after 07z as well, though won`t include in
the taf at this point as impacts to visibility look minor at
best. Cigs gradually improve during the day Mon, though will
still remain in the MVFR category through the day.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...PETERSEN
SHORT TERM...SIMCOE
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...PETERSEN