839
FXUS65 KPUB 050508
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1008 PM MST Tue Feb 4 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warm and Windy Wednesday with Critical fire weather conditions
  south of highway 50.

- Parade of short disturbances will result in a roller coaster of
temperatures late this week and into next week.

- Critical fire weather conditions possible Thursday and Friday
afternoons, mainly over the southern portions of our area.

- Colder weather and snow looks to return early next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 927 PM MST Tue Feb 4 2025

Updated the winds overnight into tomorrow morning and raised
temperatures a couple of degrees across the Plains for tomorrow
afternoon. Model x-sections indicate a very brief window for
winds to duct down along the lee slopes of the Rampart Range and
southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains late tonight into Wednesday
morning. Do not think winds will reach high wind potential, but
a few gusts near the Air Force Academy, and south near
Walsenburg could reach 45 to 50 mph after 3 AM, and be possible
through 8 AM. After 8 AM, mixing will take hold and spread
strong winds across the Plains. The other update was to the max
temperatures for tomorrow. Model guidance has come in a few
degrees warmer for much of the lower elevations. Raised most
areas 2-4 degF, which puts most of the area in the mid 60s to
lower 70s. The Red Flag Warning looks good at this time. Mozley

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 244 PM MST Tue Feb 4 2025

A stubborn cold front has kept temperatures in the 30s across much
of the southeast plains, with 50s and 60s in the downslope areas
near the southeast mountains and higher valleys.  Meanwhile, area
radars show some isolated snow showers spreading into the central
mountains, though echoes are weak and spotty in coverage.

For the remainder of tonight, expect a quick cool down across the
plains under light winds, where temperatures are expected to drop
into the teens and 20s.  Otherwise, increasing winds aloft and
plenty of high cloudiness should keep temperatures relatively warm
overnight across the mountains, lee slopes, and high valleys with
readings mainly in the 20s and 30s.

Winds increase in earnest after 06z as the next upper jet/associated
disturbance approaches from the west. Cross sections show quite a
bit of forward shear which should limit mountain wave development
and keep higher gusts across the higher terrain. Gusts to around 50
mph will be possible along the southern I-25 corridor, with westerly
winds gusting to 25 to 35 mph elsewhere on Wednesday. There could be
brief some sporadic near high wind gusts along the southern I-25
corridor in the morning as the system crosses the mountains, but
this looks localized and likely overdone given lack of mountain wave
parameters.  Lowest humidities (below 15%) will be confined to
southern portions of the southeast plains and have hoisted a Red
Flag Warning for Huerfano, Las Animas, and Baca counties where
probabilities of both humidity and wind gusts thresholds being met
are highest (50% or greater). This area may need to be expanded
northward a tier of counties, but for now humidities stay just above
the 15% thresholds, and although winds greater than 25 mph look to
be a good bet, the probabilities for below 15 percent humidity is
30% or lower.  Later shifts will need to watch these developments
closely though and adjust if needed as recent fuels have come in as
critical across all of the southeast plains save for El Paso County.


Otherwise it will be windy and warm once again with temperatures
warming into the 70s across the southeast plains and 50s and low 60s
across the valleys.  Mountain areas will climb into the 30s.  Wind
gusts up to 35 to 50 mph can be expected across the higher terrain
which will cause some local blowing snow across the peaks. Some
isolated snow showers will continue across the central mountains as
bouts of moisture in orographically favored westerly flow may
generate a few showers.  But accumulations should remain under an
inch and confined to the higher peaks. -KT

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 244 PM MST Tue Feb 4 2025

Wednesday Night-Friday...

The first of several shortwave disturbances aloft will hit the
mountains Weds Night into early Thursday. Winds aloft will continue
to be strong and gusty, leading to some occasional gusts over the
mountain peaks. Nothing near warning criteria as of now, but some
blowing snow will be possible over places with lingering
accumulations on the ground, particularly over the Central
Mountains. A few gusty spots will also be possible over the eastern
plains Thursday afternoon, as well as the southern San Luis Valley
and parts of Huerfano County and I-25 east of the gap flow area. The
passing wave will also bring some light snow showers to the peaks of
the Central Mountains, though as of now accumulations are expected
to be light.

As the jet moves past, a backdoor cold front will move in from the
east by Thursday afternoon, making the temperature forecast a bit
tricky. The timing, depth, and westward extent of the cold air is
still to be determined, but the general consensus is that model data
is still coming in a bit too warm. As such, have lowered high
temperatures over the plains by a few degrees, mainly along the
Lamar area and east to the KS border.

Current forecast has highs in the 50s-60s across the area, with the
southern I-25 corridor being the warmest area. Overnight lows will
continue to be chilly, with lows to high teens across the area.

A second shortwave will pass late Friday into Friday Night, leading
to another round of mountain snow. Accumulations will be light over
most of our mountain peaks, while the Central Mountains could see a
few inches. Winds also increase across the area, with some
noticeably stronger gusts move in over the mountains. These westerly
winds will help warm temperatures a bit further of the plains, with
60s-70s expected.

Spotty critical fire weather conditions will be possible on
Thursday, over parts of the San Luis Valley and the windier sections
of the plains. For Friday, more widespread critical conditions will
be possible over our southern plains.

Saturday Onwards...

A stronger wave will pass by late Friday Night into Saturday,
sending a stronger cold front south across our eastern plains.
Current guidance is still a bit inconsistent regarding moisture with
the system, but the current consensus shows light to moderate snow
over the mountains and lower amounts over parts of the plains,
mainly over the Palmer Divide. This precipitation should mostly end
by Saturday Night. However, the data shows a much stronger signal
for an influx of colder air. Looking at the NBM guidance, high
temperatures between Friday and Saturday drop about 20 degrees over
the eastern plains, and another 5 or so degrees on Sunday.

Another influx of arctic air is still poised to arrive with a cold
front sometime later Monday. Long-range guidance still shows a
fairly deep cold mass, with the potential to drop our high
temperatures back into the 30s prior to the middle of next week.
This will coincide with another chance at some more widespread snow
across the mountains and adjacent eastern plains. NBM guidance still
appears to come in far too warm out east in the extended period, so
have decreased high temps by several degrees each day east of I-25.
Nighttime lows appear to sink into the mid-low teens in the current
data, but may drop more as the system is resolved with more
certainty.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1008 PM MST Tue Feb 4 2025

VFR conditions are expected at all three TAF sites, KCOS, KPUB, and
KALS, for the next 24 hours. KCOS and KPUB will see continued light
surface winds through the overnight hours, with increasing
probabilities of wind shear developing after 08Z as winds aloft
increase. Eventually, these westerly winds will spread down to the
surface at both terminals by Wednesday afternoon, with best estimate
of timing coming in between 15Z and 18z. Southwest winds gusting to
35kt are expected at KALS for tomorrow afternoon as well. Mid and
upper-level cloud cover begins to clear through Wednesday morning,
with winds decreasing after 00Z Wednesday evening at all three
stations.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from 10 AM to 6 PM MST Wednesday for COZ229-
230-233-237.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MOZLEY
SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...GARBEROGLIO
AVIATION...EHR