777
FXUS65 KPUB 051756
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
Issued by National Weather Service Denver CO
1156 AM MDT Thu Jun 5 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Severe thunderstorms are expected today across southeast
  Colorado.

- Patchy dense fog through the mid-morning hours across the
  Palmer Divide/El Paso county.

- Scattered showers and storms again on Friday, with some strong
  to severe storms possible.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 439 AM MDT Thu Jun 5 2025

Current water vapor imagery and upper air analysis continues to
indicate west to southwest flow aloft across the region, with
abundant moisture embedded within the flow across the southern
Great Basin into the Rockies. At the surface, high pressure
building into the Southern High Plains is keeping cool and moist
easterly upslope flow across the plains, with low clouds and
fog in place along and south of the Palmer Dvd in El Paso County
at this time.

For today and tonight, still expecting low clouds and fog to
fill in overnight across the plains with the persistent moist
easterly flow, with the expectation that the stratus/fog
dissipates through the early to mid morning, which will set the
stage for an active day across southeast Colorado, where SPC
still indicates a moderate to slight risk of severe weather.
Model data supports increasing flow aloft through the day, as a
southern stream short wave continues to translate across the
southern Rockies and into the Southern High Plains. The
increasing southwest flow develops a surface low across the
southeast plains, where latest cams support 1000-2500 j/kg of
sbcape, along with 40-60 kts of bulk shear, with expected
increasing SRH through the day surface low slides south and east
through the afternoon and evening. With faster surface heating,
cams are supporting an early start to convection with all
convective hazards in play, especially east of the I-25
Corridor, where model data supports increasing supercell and
sigtor parameters. Hail of 1 to 2 inches in diameter, damaging
wind gusts of 60 to 70 mph, and tornadoes will all be possible,
with heavy rainfall and localized flash flooding possible with
pwats running between 150 and 175 percent of normal across the
region. With the westerly flow aloft and more northerly surface
flow developing through the overnight hours, should see clearing
skies later tonight, though still cant rule out some patchy fog
development across portions of the plains, with lows mainly in
the 50s, and in the 30s and 40s across the higher terrain.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 439 AM MDT Thu Jun 5 2025

Weather looks active again on Friday, as mid/upper level winds
increase across the area while northern stream wave drops south
through the central Rockies. Wind shear wont be an issue for
severe storms, with 0-6km bulk shear in the 40-50 kt range,
driven by low level easterly flow of 10-15 kts while mid level
wly winds increase toward 40 kts by afternoon. Main question on
Friday will be instability, as air mass on the plains will take
some time to recover from Thu night MCS. Best CAPE initially on
Friday will be along the I-25 corridor, with a few CAMs showing
values of nearly 2000 J/KG from Pueblo southward at 21z. On the
plains, air mass remains fairly stable (CAPE less than 500 J/KG)
early in the afternoon, before deeper instability (CAPE
1000-1500 J/KG) develops toward 22z-00z. Expect initial
convection to form over the mountains at midday, with
strong/severe storms along I-25 by mid-afternoon, then across
the southeast plains through the evening as activity moves e-se
toward the KS border. Combination of instability/shear argues
for supercells with hail golf ball size or larger, winds over 70
mph and even a tornado threat, especially for storms that
spread from the srn I-25 corridor onto the plains south of
Highway 50, where shear is a bit stronger. SWODY2 covers this
well, with slight risk all the way west to I-25, including
Colorado Springs and Pueblo, and potential for 2 inch or greater
hail also across the sern plans and srn I-25 corridor.

Over the weekend, deep upper low develops over the upper
Midwest, while upper level ridge builds over the wrn U.S. With
slow build in mid level heights and subsidence behind departing
upper trough, Saturday still looks like a down day for
convection, as both wind shear and deep instability will be
lacking, and many models/ensembles show only isolated tsra
coverage Sat afternoon/evening. On Sun, return of southeast
upslope flow behind a cold front suggests increasing
shower/thunderstorm chances, especially southeast mountains and
plains. For Mon/Tue/Wed, northwest flow aloft gradually
transitions back to wly as upper level ridge migrates through
the Rockies. Pattern would suggest a continuation of
afternoon/evening thunderstorms through the period, with
mountain convection during the day, moving e-se across the
plains each evening. Building heights/temps under the ridge
should boost temperatures back to near seasonal averages, with a
few spots on the plains around 90f by midweek.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1156 AM MDT Thu Jun 5 2025

Relatively quiet in the near term, though showers are already
developing across portions of southwest Colorado. This current
activity will continue to develop through the afternoon hours,
increasing in both coverage and intensity. No real big changes
to the TAFs at this time, mainly with regards to the
thunderstorm chances this afternoon into the early evening
hours. Did adjust COS to go with a tempo for thunder, as
confidence is increasing across this location by 20z. While
scattered showers may continue into the early evening time
frame, felt confident narrowing down the window for thunder at
COS. Will continue to monitor vis and thunderstorm intensity, as
I could see vis lower than the currently forecast 3sm could
occur.

Across PUB, didn`t have much confidence to change the current
PROB30 for thunder but will continue to monitor the need to go
with a small tempo group. Similarly, didn`t make many changes to
ALS. Contemplated removing the thunder as it could easily stay
to the north but given there is still a low chance, maintained
it in the forecast. Lastly, MVFR and IFR ceilings settle later
tonight into Friday morning for COS and PUB. No real big changes
made here, as a southeast to east wind will likely keep these
ceilings in place through the period.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MW/WFO Pueblo
LONG TERM...PETERSEN/WFO Pueblo
AVIATION...RODRIGUEZ