876
FXUS65 KPUB 011729
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1129 AM MDT Fri Aug 1 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Daily showers and storms continue into Saturday with the threat
  of heavy rain and localized flash flooding.

- Threat for strong to severe thunderstorms continues across the
  plains today and Saturday.

- A warming and drying trend sets in for Sunday into next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 302 AM MDT Fri Aug 1 2025

Current water vapor imagery and upper air analysis indicates modest
west to southwest flow aloft across the region, with upper level
high pressure building across the southern Rockies as a broad upper
trough persists across the Pacific Northwest Coast. Water vapor
imagery continues to indicate drier air in place across the Great
Basin, with dew points in the teens and 20s across eastern Nevada
into Utah at this time. GOES Blended Total Water Vapor imagery
indicates the main subtropical moisture plume across Old Mexico
into the Southern Rockies and Southern High Plains. Regional radars
are indicating scattered showers and storms lingering across the
northeast Colorado Plains and across the Southwest mountains, with
with a few storms continuing to percolate across eastern Las Animas,
Bent, Prowers and Baca counties at this time.

A similar weather pattern remains on tap as the previous day, with
models indicating another slight increase in westerly flow aloft,
as another West Coast short wave translates across the Intermountain
West and Northern Rockies through tonight. Models continue to indicate
slight drying aloft with PWATs ranging from 0.5 inches to 1.2 inches
across the far southeast plains.

There will still be enough moisture to work with strong summer solar
insolation to support scattered to numerous showers and storms developing
over the higher terrain this afternoon, with storms spreading east across
the high mountain valleys and immediate adjacent plains through the late
afternoon and out across the far southeast plains through the late afternoon
and evening. Latest HREF data indicates mean CAPE of 500-1000 j/kg across
the higher terrain, with mean CAPE of 1000-2000 j/kg across the eastern
plains, greatest east of the I-25 Corridor. With easterly low level flow
prevailing across the plains, bulk shears are progged with increase to
between 25-35kts this afternoon, which will support the potential for
strong to severe storms producing large hail and strong outflow winds,
especially east of the I-25 Corridor. Storms will also be capable of
producing heavy rain, with localized flash flooding possible if the heavy
rain falls on area burn scars, in urban areas, or in areas where soils
have become saturated due to previous days of rain. Storms should
diminish through the late evening, with partial clearing into early
Saturday morning. Temperatures look to warm slightly today, with highs
in the 80s to around 90 across the plains, 60s and 70s across the
higher terrain and into the low 80s across the high mountain valleys.
Overnight lows fall into 50s to low 60s across the plains, and mainly
in the 30s and 40s across the higher terrain.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 302 AM MDT Fri Aug 1 2025

Saturday...Broad ridge of high pressure will remain in place across
the Desert SW, with weaker west-northwest flow aloft, and warm
southerly flow continuing at the surface. Models are indicating some
drying taking place from west to east, and forecast dewpoints point
to the llvl moisture pool shrinking and retreating back to the
eastern border. Taking a look at model CAPE, anywhere from 1800-2300
j/kg of CAPE will reside across the far eastern plains which
corresponds well with predicted dewpoints. Add to this bulk shear of
40-45 kts and another upper disturbance crossing the Rockies through
the day, and all indications point to increasing severe wx
potential. SPC has the eastern plains from approx Crowley and Otero
counties and eastward within a Marginal area for severe wx, and
Kiowa, Bent, Prowers and Baca counties within a Slight. WPC has also
included the far eastern plains within a Marginal area for excessive
rainfall, taking into account the potential for periods of heavy
rainfall from slow-moving storms. As has been mentioned before, with
multiple days of spotty moderate to heavy rainfall, keep track of
those areas that are developing saturated ground as that will be the
precursor for potential flooding issues. Plan on high temps in the
upper 70s to lower 80s for the high valleys, and mid 80s to mid 90s
for the plains.

Sunday through Tuesday...Upper ridge builds back into the Four
Corners region starting Sunday, with the ridge axis situated over NM
and CO. This will provide for dry and very warm conditions with
temps climbing back up to normal to slightly above normal. As for
precip chances, isolated at best and mainly tied to the higher
terrain, though models are hinting at dryline interactions that
could try and spill back into Colorado. As for temps, look for highs
in the 80s for the high valleys all three days. Across the plains,
temps will warm into the upper 80s to mid 90s Sunday and Monday,
then 90s to around 100F for Tuesday.

Wednesday and Thursday...Upper ridge starts to flatten and spread to
the east, opening the door for northern upper disturbances to sneak
back down into Colorado and help off more convection. Though temps
are expected at this time to remain very hot, precip chances
increase to scattered for the higher terrain both days, with
isolated convection developing across the plains. Moore

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1128 AM MDT Fri Aug 1 2025

For KCOS and KALS..Showers and thunderstorms are expected this
afternoon, mainly from 20Z through 00Z. Brief reductions to MVFR
visibility with heavier rain showers will be possible during
stronger storms, along with gusty and erratic thunderstorm outflow
winds. Showers and storms clear after 00Z, giving wat to VFR
conditions through the overnight hours. There will be a window where
lower cloud decks will be possible as southeasterly winds look to
linger into the 03 to 07Z timeframe, but once winds shift around to
northeast and eventually northwest, clouds are expected to lift and
eventually clear through Saturday morning. Fog development is not
expected.

For KPUB..VFR conditions are expected, with slight (30%) chances for
showers and thunderstorms between 22Z and 02Z later this afternoon
and into this evening. Thunderstorm outflow winds will also be
possible today, which may extend well away from storms themselves.
Brief reductions to MVFR visibilities may be possible if a stronger
storm manages to move over station, though chances are low at this
point. VFR conditions are expected after around 02Z this evening.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...EHR