424
FXUS65 KPUB 161148
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
548 AM MDT Sun Aug 16 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Widespread showers and thunderstorms continue across southern
  Colorado today. A couple could become strong to severe today
  with very strong winds, large hail and heavy rainfall.

- One last day of widespread showers and thunderstorms on Monday
  before drier and warmer conditions arrive for mid to late
  week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 1229 AM MDT Sun Aug 16 2026

Currently...radar imagery shows popcorn showers and
thunderstorms from the Eastern Mountains, east across the Plains
early this morning. The main risks will be spotty lightning and
brief heavy downpours for those lucky enough to be hit by the
convection. This activity will likely continue through daybreak
across Eastern Colorado. Temperatures remain mild, with mostly
60s across the Plains, and 50s for the San Luis Valley.

Today and tonight...no change to the upper level pattern with
high pressure to the southeast and broad westerly flow across
southern Colorado. Another embedded upper wave in the flow will
transit across the region this afternoon and evening leading to
another round of thunderstorms for parts of the area. Flow at
the surface will remain southeasterly today, keeping dewpoints
in the upper 50s to lower 60s across the Plains. PWAT values
remain elevated as well, and CAPE values near 1000 to 1200 j/kg
will be present this afternoon. 0-6km shear looks to increase
slightly to 25-30 kts by this afternoon. This will lead to the
potential for a few strong to severe storms as they move off the
mountains and across the Plains. Stronger cells will be capable
of heavy rainfall, wind gusts in excess of 60 to 70 mph and 1.5
inch diameter hail. CAM guidance suggests a couple of rounds of
thunderstorms may be possible; the first through the afternoon,
and a second round with outflow along the Highway 50 corridor
this evening. A Flash Flood Watch is in effect for the Aspen
Acres burn scar with thunderstorms expected this afternoon.
Other areas may need to be added as confidence in heavier
thunderstorms grows with the early morning cycles. Showers and
thunderstorms will likely linger through the overnight hours as
the upper wave exits to the east.

Temperatures today will remain mild, with 80s across the lower
elevations. Overnight lows will fall off into the 60s by
morning.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1229 AM MDT Sun Aug 16 2026

Models are finally in agreement with the evolution of the upper
pattern, with the GFS trending towards the ECMWF and Canadian
solutions. Still have a feeling the NBM guidance is slow to
respond for afternoon temperatures by later this week.

Monday...the upper high over the southeast states will
retrograde west towards Texas, with upper ridging starting to
build north across Colorado. One last upper wave will drop
southeast across the state Monday afternoon which will lead to
shower and thunderstorm development for the Eastern Mountains
and Plains. PWAT values begin to dry out as the upper ridge
build, which will impact rainfall rates. Southeasterly flow on
the Plains will keep dewpoints elevated and shear weaken
overhead with the building ridge. Thunderstorms look to develop
along the Eastern Mountains by early afternoon, and spread
southeast across the Plains through the evening. Locally heavy
rainfall, lightning, wind gusts to 50 mph and half inch hail
will likely accompany stronger storms. We will continue to
monitor the need for Flash Flood Watches for area burn scars.
This activity will spread south and east during the evening, and
clear the Plains by Tuesday morning. Temperatures will remain
mild on Monday with highs in the 80s to near 90 by the Kansas
border.

Tuesday through Sunday...the upper ridge will develop into a
strong upper high centered across Utah and Colorado through this
period. Drier air will spread across the region, and much drier
conditions expected through the period. Daily shower and
thunderstorm activity is forecast to develop across the
Mountains, and spread east into the I-25 corridor through the
evenings before dissipating overnight. Afternoon high
temperatures will climb back through the 90s on Tuesday across
the Plains. A system passing well to the north will send a cold
front for Wednesday with a brief cool down along with the best
chances for showers and thunderstorms during this period. Model
guidance really cranks the high overhead from Thursday through
Sunday. NBM temperature guidance has warmed a bit, but still
lower than ensemble and deterministic guidance.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 535 AM MDT Sun Aug 16 2026

AT KCOS and KPUB, VFR this morning will light winds, then prob30
for tsra from 20z until 03z at both terminals, with heavy rain
and gusty winds up to 40 kts the main storm threats. Precip
then shifts east this evening, with clearing skies and light
winds overnight into Mon morning.

At KALS, VFR the next 24 hrs, as -tsra stay generally east of
the valley over the higher terrain. Low risk (10-20 percent) of
a gusty outflow or brief sprinkle/shower 20z-02z, though chance
remains too low to include in the taf at this point.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch from noon MDT today through this evening for
COZ079-080-086.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...PETERSEN