475
FXUS65 KPUB 132048
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
148 PM MST Thu Nov 13 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...


- Warm temperatures continuing through the weekend.

- Changes starting Sunday as first trough will bring snow to the
  interior mountains SUN/MON.

- Active pattern with fairly stout mid level troughs moving
  through next week; MUCH cooler (high confidence) with bouts of
  snow mtns; some precip possible plains.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 140 PM MST Thu Nov 13 2025

Unseasonably warm weather will continue across the region for the
next several days. For tomorrow, max temperatures will be 1 to 3
degrees warmer than todays expected highs. Although it will be
warm, temperatures should remain below record highs. Skies will
continue to be mostly sunny. Westerly sfc winds in the morning
should transition to more diurnal flow by afternoon.

Although RH values will be quite low ( <15% ) tomorrow afternoon over
the plains, fire weather concerns are low due to the weak surface
wind flow.

Record max temps for Fri 11/14

Alamosa...........67F in 2017, Fcst...61F

Colorado Springs..77F in 1936, Fcst...71F

Pueblo............82F in 1990, Fcst...78F

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 339 AM MST
Thu Nov 13 2025

Temperatures cool down around 5 degrees across the plains for
Saturday as a cold front backdoors into the southeast plains.
Mountains and valleys will see little change in temperatures
with all areas staying above normal. Winds will be lighter as
well as shortwave ridging moves overhead.

Changes occur starting Sunday as upper low moves onshore across
southern CA then lifts northeastward and fills as it tracks across
NV/UT and across CO/WY by 12z Monday.  There`s still some
differences in the track and strength in operational models though
overall trend has been towards a drier and slightly warmer solution,
especially for the southeast plains as the system passes to the
north. Consensus is leaning towards a faster moving open wave with
southern CO staying on the dry downslope side of the storm with some
brief cooling behind a cold front on Monday.  Confidence is greatest
for some moderate snow accumulations across the Eastern San Juan
mountains Sunday through early Monday as southwesterly orographics
helps enhance precipitation totals.  NBM probabilities still show
high values (up to 80%) for 6 inches or more of snow to fall across
the eastern San Juan mountains though probabilities of 12 inches or
more has dropped (up to 30% over a very small area of the higher San
Juans).  The eastern Sawatch range show some low probabilities
around 30% or less for 4 inches of snow with under 10% for the
southeast mountains. The southeast plains look warmer now with high
temperatures on Monday in the lower to mid 60s and best
precipitation chances staying north of the area.  So overall, trends
suggest maybe some advisories will be needed for the Eastern San
Juans Sunday into Sunday night at best.  Forecasts are still prone
to change, so stay tuned.

The pattern remains active into next week with a series of systems
expected to move through the western U.S.  Spread in the operational
models is significant with timing and phasing differences as systems
move into the western U.S. and dampen out into generally westerly
flow into the central part of the country.  Followed the ensemble
means for now given the low confidence forecast on if/where any cut
off lows may form and track.  Overall pattern would suggest
continued dampening waves to eject across the Rockies bringing some
episodic snows to the mountains, and generally near normal
temperatures to the southeast CO plains with some isolated showers
possible at times.  No changes made from the National Blend of Model
solutions. -KT

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1014 AM MST Thu Nov 13 2025

VFR conditions are near certain during the next 24 hours at all
3 taf sites, KPUB, KALS and KCOS. Winds will be diurnally driven
and light.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HODANISH/KT
LONG TERM...EHR
AVIATION...HODANISH