420
FXUS65 KPUB 192049
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
249 PM MDT Sat Oct 19 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rounds of rain and high elevation snow will continue with the
  greatest impacts and heaviest snow across the eastern San
  Juans and southern Sangre De Cristo Mountains.

- Precipitation winding down Sunday night into Monday morning.

- Warm and dry weather returns through the work week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 244 PM MDT Sat Oct 19 2024

Upper low will slowly lift northeastward from central Arizona
towards the 4 Corners region by Sunday afternoon sending waves of
rain and higher elevation snow northward across southern CO under
favorable lift and upper difluence.  There are bands of drier air
working into the upper low as well, so with a brief lull late this
afternoon and evening, we should see another wave spread northward
across the region late tonight through Sunday morning with the main
upper lift before coverage becomes more scattered in the afternoon.
Have made some adjustments to hazards to remove the lower elevation
zones and downgrade the La Garita mountains to a Winter Weather
Advisory for the duration of the storm.  There is the possibility
that highlights may need to be extended through Sunday afternoon,
but given some decrease in coverage will let later shifts get a look
at the 00z runs before extending.

As the upper low approaches, lapse rates will steepen and southerly
flow will continue to advect lower 50 dew points northward across
the southeast plains.  This will yield afternoon CAPE values of up
to 1000 J/kg. With deep layer shears around 40 kts, a strong to
severe storm or two can`t be ruled out across the southeast plains,
mainly east of a line from Kim to La Junta to Haswell.  Hail to
around 1 inch in diameter would be the primary risk.  HREF does show
a couple helicity swaths across our far eastern plains Sunday
afternoon.  By the same token increasing instability over the
mountains will result in convective snow bursts with locally heavy
snow across the higher areas.  Snow levels remain quite high,
generally above 10kft, so any impacts will stay confined to the
higher elevation zones south of highway 50.

Temperatures will rebound into the 60s to lower 70s tomorrow as
southerly flow aids in mixing across the eastern plains.  High
elevation valleys will warm into the 50s, with a mix of 30s and 40s
for the higher areas.  -KT

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 244 PM MDT Sat Oct 19 2024

Sunday night-Monday night...Model data continues to struggle with
the ejection of the upper low across the region, which now looks to
to have the system moving into the Four Corners region Sunday
evening before lifting out into the northeast Plains by early Monday
morning. UVV within south to southwest flow aloft associated with
the passing system early in the period keeps precipitation ongoing
across the southern mtns, the high mtn valleys and the far southeast
plains Sunday night, with the focus of precipitation then shifting
to the central mtns and possibly into the Pikes Peak region, as flow
becomes more north to northwest Monday morning. Any wrap around
precipitation across the region winds down through the late morning,
with clearing skies into the afternoon.  Breezy west to northwest
winds will keep Monday morning lows from bottoming out, though will
still see temperatures in the 20s and 30s across the higher terrain,
with mainly 40s across the plains. Highs on Monday will slowly warm
into the 40s and 50s across the higher terrain, with 60s to lower
70s expected across the plains.

Tuesday-Saturday...While models have been struggling with the
ejection of this system, they have been very consistent with upper
level ridging rebuilding behind the parting system, keeping modest
and dry west to northwest flow in place across the Central Rockies
through the work week, as a few embedded waves translate across the
Pacific Northwest through the Northern Tier. This will keep dry
weather in place along with temperatures at to slightly above
seasonal levels through next week, with a weak cool down on
Wednesday with a passing backdoor front across the plains.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1147 AM MDT Sat Oct 19 2024

A mixture of MVFR to IFR and even LIFR conditions can be
expected early this afternoon with increasing southerly winds
at KCOS and KPUB upsloping on the southern slopes of the Palmer
Divide leading to lower cigs for the KCOS airport. Mixing should
be sufficient to raise cigs and result in some cloud breaks
late this afternoon for MVFR to VFR conditions before cigs
lower and pack back in again overnight. Best chance for rain
will continue for the KALS today with VCSH possible through most
of the night and Sunday morning. KCOS and KPUB will see the
best chance for another round of showers and IFR cigs/vis with
-SHRA/fog after 04-05z. Southerly winds will increase at all
 three terminals Sunday morning 10-20 kts possible Sunday
 afternoon.
-KT

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until noon MDT Sunday for COZ066.
Winter Storm Warning until noon MDT Sunday for COZ068-075.
Winter Weather Advisory until noon MDT Sunday for COZ073.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...KT