239
FXUS65 KPUB 041713
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1113 AM MDT Fri Jul 4 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated to scattered showers and storms expected today
  afternoon for the mountains and Pikes Peak Region.

- Strong to marginally severe storms possible across the plains
  Saturday.

- Slight upturn in shower/thunderstorm chances Fri-Tue, before
  hotter/drier conditions develop from Wed into the end of next
  week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 307 AM MDT Fri Jul 4 2025

Today: For the end of the week, active weather is expected for
portions of south central and southeastern Colorado. A wave will be
passing over early in the day and exiting by the late afternoon.
While subsidence will start to increase on the backside of the
exiting wave, orographics will persist along the higher terrain,
along with minor surface upsloping into the Rampart Mountains as
surface winds take on a northeasterly to easterly component behind a
surface lee cyclone. Along with that, richer moisture will start to
become pushed eastward, with drier air filling in behind the wave.
With that all said though, isolated to widely scattered showers and
storms are still anticipated to develop along the mountains during
the afternoon given some forcing and moisture still in place. In
addition, isolated showers and storms are expected across the Pikes
Peak region during the mid to late afternoon hours, given more
focused surface forcing into the terrain. Elsewhere though, dry
conditions are anticipated to prevail. Beyond all of that, mostly
clear skies early will become partly cloudy during the afternoon as
showers and storms develop, along with relatively light winds around
10 mph through the day. Temperatures for the day will be warm and
around seasonal values, with the plains heating into the mid 80s to
mid 90s, the valleys into the upper 70s to mid 80s, and the
mountains into the mid 50s to 60s.

Tonight: Friday night may have active weather to start, but is
expected to end with quiet conditions across south central and
southeastern Colorado. The northern fringes of a ridge of high
pressure will develop over the area behind the exiting wave from
Friday day. Descent will increase with this feature, and drier air
is expected to continue to advect in over the area. With that said,
showers and thunderstorms may be ongoing during the early to mid
evening hours, pushing southeast across the plains along an
associated outflow boundary. However, confidence in this scenario is
low (30%) at this time given disagreement between high-res guidance.
Otherwise, dry conditions will prevail by the overnight hours for
the region. Outside of all of that, partly cloudy skies will become
clear overnight, with winds becoming light and variable around 5
mph. Looking at temperatures, another mild night is anticipated,
with the plains falling into the upper 50s to mid 60s, the valleys
into the 40 to low 50s, and the mountains into the 30s and mid 40s.

Tomorrow: Heading into the weekend, Saturday brings another day of
active weather for portions of south central and southeastern
Colorado. The northern fringes of the high pressure will still be in
place over the region. This means subsidence and modest moisture
will remain in place. With that all said though, surface winds are
expected to take on an easterly component as lee troughing develops
close to the terrain. This surface upsloping, along with the minor
moisture still in place, is expected to allow for showers and
thunderstorms to develop along the eastern mountains during the
early afternoon hours. Given the westerly flow aloft over the area,
showers and storms are expected to push eastward across the plains
by mid to late afternoon. Given better shear in place, a strong to
marginally severe thunderstorm or two will be possible, with strong
winds of 50-60 mph being the most likely hazard, though frequent
lightning, small hail, and brief periods of heavy rain will also be
possible with any stronger storms. Along with all of that, remnant
boundaries from convection Friday may also become initiation points
for afternoon showers and storms across the plains, though
confidence on where, if any, boundary may be is low (20%) given
dependence on how Friday evening convection plays out. Otherwise,
clear skies early will again become partly cloudy during the
afternoon, with winds remaining relatively light around 10 mph. As
for temperatures, another hot day is expected, with the plains
rising into the mid 80s to upper 90s, the valleys into the upper 70s
to mid 80s, and the mountains into the mid 50s to 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 307 AM MDT Fri Jul 4 2025

Upper wave pushes from the nrn Rockies into the nrn plains Sun,
with hints of a weak cold front dropping south across ern CO
during the day. Best moisture Sun afternoon/evening will be
across the eastern plains, with air mass getting progressively
drier farther west toward the Continental Divide. Instability on
the plains east of I-25 increases to above 2000 J/KG in the
afternoon, while 0-6km shear rises into the 35-45 kt range as
mid level swly flow and surface s-se winds both increase. Expect
storms to fire over the eastern mountains/I-25 early the
afternoon, then strengthen as they move east across the plains
late afternoon/evening. SWODY3 has ern CO highlighted for a
marginal risk of severe storms, which looks reasonable. Similar
set-up for Mon, with again best coverage of storms spreading
from the eastern mountains in the afternoon to the southeast
plains by evening. Max temps both Sun/Mon will hang out within a
few degf of early July averages at most locations.

Upper ridge begins to rebuild starting Tue, though enough
moisture lingers for isolated to scattered storms again at many
locations, with lower wind shear/CAPE values arguing for weaker
storms. Generally hotter/drier Wed/Thu with upper ridge over the
srn Rockies, then hints of a nrn stream trough/cold front as
early as Fri, with an upturn in thunderstorm chances possible.
Max temps creep slightly above average Tue-Thu, then potentially
begin to fall slightly toward the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1109 AM MDT Fri Jul 4 2025

KALS...VFR conditions through the next 24 hours. A couple of
wind gusts near 20 kts are possible this afternoon.

KCOS...showers and thunderstorms are forecast to develop this
afternoon and move across the terminal. Reduced CIGS and VIS
along with gusty outflow are expected with any thunderstorms
that move across the terminal, mainly in the 19-21z time period.
Otherwise, VFR conditions are forecast at the terminal.

KPUB...VFR conditions through the next 24 hours. An outflow
boundary from storms to the north will likely produce
northeasterly wind gusts near 20-25 kts late this afternoon
(23-01z period). Mozley

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SIMCOE
LONG TERM...PETERSEN
AVIATION...MOZLEY