581
FXUS65 KPUB 201004
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
404 AM MDT Wed Aug 20 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Above normal temperatures and mainly dry weather expected
  through mid week.

- Cooler and more active weather sets in Friday and into early
  next week. Some stronger storms and flash flooding concerns
  will be possible.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 350 AM MDT Wed Aug 20 2025

Relatively quiet this morning with any lingering cloud cover
continuing to diminish across the region. Outside of a few showers
across the southwest mountains, anticipate dry weather for remaining
areas early this morning. Had been monitoring a rather strong flow
boundary pushing into Colorado late last evening, for the
possibility of additional shower or thunderstorm development.
Despite this pushing through the region, lacking instability has
likely limited any development and again anticipate dry weather to
persist early this morning.

Ridge will continue to dominate the weather today and even into
Thursday, with above normal temperatures and drier weather
persisting. For today, didn`t make too many changes to the high
temps, with highest temps reaching the mid 90s over the plains while
most of the mountain valleys push well into the mid to upper 80s.
The ridge in place will once again help to suppress much of the
convection today, though expect isolated to widely scattered
thunderstorm development over the higher terrain. Steadily easterly
low to mid level flow will likely support this development, despite
the ridge overhead. While some weak instability will be in place,
soundings look rather dry today and would expect this to limit the
coverage and even intensity of any thunderstorm.

No real big change in the pattern and expected weather on Thursday,
with this pattern supporting another dry day with above normal
temperatures. With soundings looking even drier on Thursday, think
the coverage of any afternoon high terrain shower and thunderstorm
development will be even lower.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 350 AM MDT Wed Aug 20 2025

The high pressure will build in over the Four Corners Region on
Friday, slowly meandering to the west as we head into this weekend.
As it does, a disturbance in the upper-level flow will pass to our
north and east, sending a cold front south across the area sometime
Friday afternoon, bringing a notable pattern shift for the start of
the long-term forecast period. Highs on Friday will be dependent on
the frontal timing, but current model consensus, which places the
strongest surge of cooler air later in the day, has highs still in
the 80s to upper-90s across the CWA. Showers and thunderstorms will
spread across the Continental Divide, moving over the plains late in
the afternoon and into the evening hours. Current guidance is
lacking in instability, though looking at severe parameters, the
front does increase low-level shear a fair bit as it moves through.
Overall, severe chances don`t look especially high, though the
greatest risk for stronger storms will be along the frontal boundary
itself due to enhanced lift. The main concern will be increasing
moisture content leading to flash flooding over the higher terrain,
especially over more at-risk areas such as burn scars. Gusty winds
and heavy rain will be the main impacts to look out for.

Northwest flow sets in aloft this weekend as the high moves further
west. Temperatures will, finally, cool down to more seasonable
levels, with highs in the 70s to 80s over most of the CWA. Moisture
will be in abundance across the area, with a better monsoon setup
and daily showers and storms over large portions of southeast
Colorado. Still looks like a potential heavy rain impact for at
least a few days, though with decent shear and upsloping into the
mountains/plains interface, will definitely have to see how guidance
evolves with regards to any strong or severe storms out east.

Looking into next week, long-term guidance hints at pushing the high
pressure further to the south, allowing for a continuation of our
cooler and wetter conditions.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 350 AM MDT Wed Aug 20 2025

VFR conditions and dry weather are expected this forecast
period, with any afternoon isolated shower and thunderstorm
development expected to stay confined to the higher terrain.
Lingering outflow across COS and PUB will likely keep winds
steady out of the east early, before becoming more light and
variable for the remaining early morning hours. Light and
diurnally driven winds are then anticipated for all sites this
period, outside of a few gusts later this afternoon.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RODRIGUEZ
LONG TERM...GARBEROGLIO
AVIATION...RODRIGUEZ