377
FXUS65 KPUB 182347
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
547 PM MDT Sat Jul 18 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Except for San Juans, expect only isolated storms over the
  mtns/valleys rest of today and tomorrow; Slight uptick on
  Monday.

- Hot Monday over the plains with triple digit reading lower Ark
  Rvr Valley region.

- Hopefully increasing moisture/precip chances and slightly
  cooler weather beginning Tuesday into late week. However,
  Burn scar flooding threat will be ramping up.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1241 PM MDT Sat Jul 18 2026

Rest of Today...

Continued hot with only isolated storms over the higher terrain.
OVerall best chance of storms will be over the San Juans, although
guidance is pretty confident we will see some thunder on the south
side of the Pikes Peak region later this afternoon. Can`t rule out
some locally heavy rain over the San Juans as better moisture is
noted over this region. Plains will remain hot and dry.

Tomorrow...

Continued mainly dry. Some guidance has no precip anywhere over the
fcst area. For now painted isolated storms over the Contdvd region
tomorrow afternoon and kept pretty much everyone else dry. Max
temps will be 1-2F hotter than todays max temps.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1241 PM MDT Sat Jul 18 2026

Monday...

100+ degree readings return to the lower parts of the plains
with 90s over the remainder of the lower elevations with temps
about 90F in the larger valleys. We will likely need some Hot
Weather Highlights of parts of the plains this day. Guidance
does hint at the moisture plume pushing a bit farther east and
we will see a better chance of showers along the CONTDVD this
day.

Critical Fire Weather Conditions will be possible in and around the
greater Wet Mountain region during Monday afternoon.

Tuesday...

A weak front is fcst to push down across the plains as a stout
shortwave moves across the north central part of the CONUS. This
causes the ridge aloft to orientate NW-SE across the western half of
the CONUS with the center of the ridge pushing over KS. With
the sfc flow being a bit more moist and easterly, and
southwesterly flow developing at mid levels, we may see a bit
better chance of precip over the interior this day, but
confidence is not high.

Wednesday into late week...

Ridge aloft is finally forecast to break down as a weak wave in the
developing in the weak mid level westerly flow pushes eastward. This
change in the pattern will push the moisture plume to the east and
we should see a better chance of precip over the fcst area during
this time period. HPC precip guidance shows the brunt of the
moisture affecting our region late week into next weekend as 0.5
- 1.0 inch amounts are noted over their QPF charts over parts of our
region.

Flash Flooding on the burn scars may become a serious concern
during this time period.

/Hodanish

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 542 PM MDT Sat Jul 18 2026

At KALS, kept a prob30 for -tsra from 00z-01z this evening, as
activity building over the Sangres drifts west over the Valley.
Clearing skies and light winds overnight, with VFR conditions
through the day on Sunday as high pressure building overhead
will likely suppress convection.

At KCOS and KPUB, VFR the next 24 hours with drainage winds
overnight turning to sely upslope 12g22kts after 18z Sun.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...KT
AVIATION...PETERSEN