242
FXUS65 KPUB 031748
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1148 AM MDT Thu Apr 3 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain/snow showers across much of the area today, with snow
  accumulations over the mountains and Palmer Divide, and
  potential thunderstorms for the far eastern plains.

- Widespread precipitation expected to develop during Friday
  and persist into Saturday.

- Higher impact snow is likely along southern portions of the
  region given heavy and wet snow.

- Drier and warmer conditions return starting Sunday and persist
  into midweek next week

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 333 AM MDT Thu Apr 3 2025

Currently...Broad upper trough was located over the western US this
morning, with the low center over western UT. This was producing
deep south to southwest flow aloft across the Four Corners region,
with moisture advection across southern CO. Snow was falling over
the southwest mts, and mid and high level cloudiness was on the
increase across the forecast area. Temps as of 2 AM were in the 20s
for the high valleys, and 20s and 30s for the plains.

Today...Upper low centroid rotates across the Four Corners and up
into western and northwestern CO through the day today, while the
broad upper trough essentially remains in place. This disturbance
will continue to draw moisture and produce favorable dynamics across
the area through the day, resulting in 5-7 inches of new snow for
the southwest mts where there is currently a Winter Weather Advisory
in place, 4-6 inches of snow for the peaks of the central mts and
Pikes Peak region, and up to 3 inches for the remainder of the
higher terrain. The Palmer Divide and Monument Hill is expected to
receive 2 to 4 inches of new snow through the day today, but it will
likely be a very wet and slushy snowfall.

Meanwhile, across the eastern plains much of the anticipated precip
will fall as rain. However, there is a very good chance for some
thunderstorm activity this afternoon. Surface winds today across the
plains will transition from an easterly flow to a more southerly one
through midday, drawing warmer air along with higher dewpoints up
into the plains. At the same time, there will be strong southwest
flow aloft. While SPC has much of the area under General Thunder,
there is an abundance of 0-6 km bulk shear to work with, and as
moisture advection increases across the southeast corner after 18z,
there will be some meager CAPE to tap into as well. Hi-res models
are indicating some convection firing off for the far eastern plains
after Noon and lasting until 8 or 9 PM, so the east will need to be
monitored closely this afternoon.

Plan on high temps today in the 40s for the high valleys, mid 40s
and 50s for much of the plains, and around 60F closer to the eastern
border.

Tonight...While the broad upper trough gradually sags south and east
through the night, the upper disturbance ejecting to the northeast
across CO will continue to do so, and continuing support for
convection and shower activity will track with it. Activity is
expected to quickly diminish from south to north after 10 PM, with
partly cloudy skies overnight. Look for overnight low temps in the
teens for the high valleys, 20s and 30s for the plains. Moore

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 333 AM MDT Thu Apr 3 2025

Friday: The end of the week will bring a round of messy Spring
weather to south central and southeastern Colorado. A broad trough
will continue to sit over the area, while a compact wave within the
broader flow sits to the southwest of the area, though will slowly
start pushing eastward. With this messy pattern in place, forcing
will slowly rise throughout the day, along with moisture. The uptick
in forcing and moisture will allow for showers to blossom across
much of the region during the day. Firstly along the mountains,
where any forcing will be maximized, during the morning, and then
spread across the valleys and plains during the afternoon as broader
forcing rises. The messiest part comes in regards to precipitation
type. The mountains will remain all snow during the day. The valleys
will be predominantly snow, though a rain/snow mix is likely during
the afternoon as temperatures warm. As for the plains, any showers
that develop during the morning will initially start off as a
rain/snow mix. Then when precipitation become more widespread during
the day, rain is expected for most as snow levels sit around 6,000-
6,200 ft, with a rain/snow mix right around that level and a sloppy
and slushy snow above that level. Along with all of that, a front
will start to develop across the plains, which will allow surface
winds to start to take on a more northeasterly component, especially
during the later part of the afternoon. These winds will allow for a
localized area of enhanced forcing to develop into the southern
Sangre de Cristo Mountains, southern I-25 corridor, and Raton Mesa
area during mid to late afternoon, which will start to increase
precipitation coverage and intensity. This is when higher impacts
are likely to start appearing for the area, particularly along roads
ways as they start to become slushy. Beyond all of that light winds
early will start to become breezy during the afternoon as the front
develops, and clouds will steadily surge in coverage as the overall
system pushes over. Looking at temperatures, a cool day is
anticipated given the unsettled pattern, with many below seasonal
values for early April.

Friday Night - Saturday: Now heading into the start of the weekend,
the active and messy weather continues. The broad trough will remain
over the area, though will start to push eastward, pulling the
aforementioned compact wave with it. While this wave will remain
just south of the area, it will still influence the region. Both
forcing and moisture will remain heightened during this timeframe,
allowing for widespread precipitation to continue. Any precipitation
at this point will start to transition to all snow, if it hadn`t
already, as temperatures quickly drop during the Friday evening
hours. Along with that, as the wave pushes eastward just south of
the area, the developing front across the plains will surge
southward. This will further increase forcing into the southern
Sangre de Cristo Mountains, southern I-25 corridor, and Raton Mesa
area, where any precipitation present is anticipated to increase
further in coverage and intensity, with heavy and wet snow quickly
developing during the evening and persisting into Saturday morning.
Impacts are likely during this timeframe, with slushy snow covered
roads, and given the heavy and wet nature of any snow, along with
increasing winds behind the front, strain on some
infrastructure and trees is possible. With that all said, this
storm system will finally start to exit the area throughout the
mid to late parts of Saturday, and as it does so, precipitation
will steadily lessen in coverage and intensity during the
afternoon to evening hours. Otherwise, breezy winds are expected
for much of the area behind the surging cold front, with cloudy
skies continuing, though with some thinning in clouds late
Saturday as the overall troughing departs. As for temperatures,
a well below seasonal period is anticipated as colder air filter
into the region behind the cold front and unsettled pattern.

Sunday - Wednesday: For the rest of the long term period, quieter
weather prevails for south central and southeastern Colorado.
Ridging will develop over the area, with periods of northerly to
northwesterly flow. Given the lack of major forcing with this
pattern, dry conditions are anticipated for much of the area. The
exception to this may be along the mountains, where modest
orographic forcing will persist, and may allow for highly isolated
light snow showers to develop. Otherwise, relatively light winds and
occasional mid to high level clouds are expected. Temperatures
during this period will start to rebound to warmer values given the
overall ridging in place, with above seasonal temperatures returning
Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1131 AM MDT Thu Apr 3 2025

At KCOS, periods of MVFR/brief IFR due to snow showers expected
through the afternoon, with activity tapering off to vcsh after
01z and ending by 06z. VFR conditions prevailing overnight into
Fri morning, though there is a low probability (20 percent) of
some MVFR/IFR stratus near/after 12z Fri currently not included
in the taf. East winds expected 18z-01z, then nly overnight
into Fri morning.

At KPUB, vcsh through the afternoon, with brief (20-30 minutes)
periods of MVFR under any heavier showers, then activity tapers
off to vcsh after 01z, ending by 04z. VFR conditions prevailing
overnight, though there is a low probability (20 percent) of
some MVFR/IFR stratus near/after 12z Fri currently not included
in the taf. East winds expected 18z-01z, then nly overnight into
Fri morning.

At KALS, vcsh through the afternoon, with brief (20-30 minutes)
periods of MVFR/IFR under any heavier snow showers. Snow shower
chances begin to decrease after 21z, with VFR conditions
prevailing overnight into Fri morning. Briefly gusty (20-25kt)
sw winds this afternoon will diminish 01z-03z, becoming light
and variable overnight into Fri morning.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until 9 PM MDT this evening for COZ068.
Winter Storm Watch from Friday afternoon through Saturday
afternoon for COZ074-075.
Winter Storm Watch from Friday evening through Saturday
afternoon for COZ087-088.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...SIMCOE
AVIATION...PETERSEN