441
FXUS65 KPUB 240514
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1114 PM MDT Sat Aug 23 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and thunderstorms continue into this evening,
  especially over the mountains. A strong/severe storm is
  possible, especially Teller County/Palmer Divide.

- More widespread thunderstorms expected on Sunday, with strong
  to severe storms possible over the southeast plains.

- Cooler and active weather likely for much of next week, with
  daily shower and thunderstorm development over south central
  and southeast Colorado.

- Low to medium chance for strong to severe storms each day,
  along with heavy rainfall and localized flooding.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 208 PM MDT Sat Aug 23 2025

Storms developing on schedule across the mountains this
afternoon, although eastern mountain/I-25 and southeast plains
haven`t seen much development as of 2 pm, as low clouds have
lingered, limiting instability. For the remainder of the
afternoon into the evening, expect mountain convection to expand
and strengthen, especially at locations where morning
cloudiness cleared early. Suspect best chance for a strong to
severe storm will be in Teller County and along the Palmer
Divide, where low level wind shear (0-6km shear 30-40 kts) is
strongest, and pocket of relatively cloud free air over the
Front Range has allowed deeper instability (CAPE over 1000 J/KG)
to develop. Elsewhere over the high terrain, main threat from
storms will be heavy rainfall, as PWAT climbs to over an inch
and surface dewpoints are mostly in the 50s. For the I-25
corridor and southeast plains, instability is more limited,
leading to weakening convection moving off the mountains through
the evening. Storms will slowly dissipate late evening, though
plentiful moisture suggests at least weak shower activity may
linger toward/past midnight before precip ends early Sunday
morning.

On Sunday, set-up appears to favor more widespread convection,
especially across the plains. Bulk shear increases a bit into
the 35-45 kt range, with CAPE running 1000+ J/KG at most
locations by afternoon as we see more sun than Sat across the
area. Most CAMs suggest mountain convection forms around midday,
with widespread storms then rolling southeast over the I-25
corridor by mid/late afternoon, then across the southeast plains
late afternoon/evening. Models differ slightly on where
strongest low level convergence and subsequent greatest severe
threat will be, though rough consensus is along a LIC/LHX/Kim
line where sely surface winds will be strongest, though at least
a low end severe storm will be possible anywhere along and east
of the mountains during the afternoon/evening. Heavy rainfall/flash
flooding a threat as well, with greatest risk over El
Paso/Teller Counties, where heavier rain has fallen recently.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 314 AM MDT Sat Aug 23 2025

No real big change in the large scale pattern moving into
Monday and Tuesday, keeping precip chances high for most of the
area. A cooler air mass will work its way in though and bring
well below normal temps to the region on these days. Will need
to keep an eye on how instability evolves during this period, as
its looking to shift more over the higher terrain and possibly
lower. Not quite confident on this trend though and will
continue to keep a close eye given the likely forcing for ascent
and additional precip development. Ridge does appear to shift
east and eventually flatten by the middle/end of next week,
bringing a shift to more of a west to southwest flow aloft. Will
see temps warm slightly though still stay below normal for this
time of the year. Moisture doesn`t really go anywhere and looks
to help support continued daily shower and thunderstorm
development across the region.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1111 PM MDT Sat Aug 23 2025

KALS...a few light rain showers are possible this overnight
across the San Luis Valley, but this will clear to the south
overnight. Another round of showers and thunderstorms are
forecast for Sunday afternoon and evening with reduced CIGS and
VIS likely.

KCOS and KPUB...clearing overnight to VFR which will prevail
through the morning hours. Showers and thunderstorms are
forecast for both terminals during the afternoon with reduced
CIGS and VIS with storms. A transition to light rain will occur
during the evening hours.  Mozley

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...RODRIGUEZ
AVIATION...MOZLEY