395
FXUS65 KPUB 192357
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
557 PM MDT Sun Jul 19 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hot and dry tomorrow; Heat Advisory issued for El Paso and E
Fremont county.

- Front comes in TUE Afternoon and Flash Flood threat ramps up for
the multiple burn scars.

- Flash flood threat will likely remain with us from Tuesday onwards
into the weekend over the burn scars.

- A bit cooler and wetter weather regionwide WED onward.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 106 PM MDT Sun Jul 19 2026

For the rest of today, hot and mainly dry over the entire region.
Cant rule out a isolated storm over the mtns (especially CONTDVD,
but overall it will be dry.

Tomorrow...

Hotter weather over the region. Have issued a heat advisory for E
Fremont and Lower El Paso county as heat advisory criteria has been
meant over these regions. Lots of 90s over a good part of the region
tomorrow with 100s over the Lower Ark rvr valley from about Canon
City eastward to the KS border.

Another concern is critical fire weather conditions being meant
across the greater western Pueblo county region. This unfortunately
is the location of the Aspen Acres (AA) fire. However critical area
is relatively small so no highlights will be issued from NWS PUB at
this time, but have advised the IMET folks on the fire of the
localized critical conditions expected tomorrow afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 106 PM MDT Sun Jul 19 2026

Burn scar flash flood concerns will ramp up Tuesday. Deterministic
guidance products are in pretty good agreement regarding pushing at
front down the plains Tuesday afternoon. Surge of moist easterlies
behind the front will hit the east slopes of the mtns during prime
heating TUesday afternoon, and locally heavy rain will be possible
along the mtns/plains interface. It will likely not take much rain
to cause potentially significant flash flooding (especially if the
rain is intense). The 24 burn scar and the Willow burn scar will
also need to be watched.

WED-THU-FRI...

Broad modest NW flow (20-30 knts at 500 mb) will develop  during the
latter part of this time period, and with moist upslope flow
developing, Modest deep layer shear will become favorable for a bit
more organized convective development. Subtle short waves in this
flow will help initiate storms over all of the region. The good
news is we will likely see scattered to numerous thunderstorms
over the region, the bad news is that any heavy rain over the
burn scars will not be good.

Weekend...

Ridge builds directly over the region and flow becomes very weak. Mid
level high will become "dirty" so slow moving scattered storms will
be possible, mainly over the higher terrain. Temps over the region
will likely once again heat up over the region, especially over the
plains. /Hodanish

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 547 PM MDT Sun Jul 19 2026

VFR at all taf sites the next 24 hrs, as most convective activity
remains to the west, mainly from the Continental Divide
westward. Winds will become light drainage overnight, then
southwest winds of 10-14 kts return midday Mon, with a few gusts
20-25kt at KCOS and KPUB.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from noon to 6 PM MDT Monday for COZ083>085.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...PETERSEN