618
FXUS65 KPUB 121010
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
410 AM MDT Wed Mar 12 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Another dry and mild day expected today, with spotty critical
  fire weather conditions across portions of the eastern
  plains.

- Isolated snow showers, or a rain/snow mix, across the
  southwest mountains this afternoon.

- Strong Spring storm system still expected to impact the area
  for the later part of this week.

- Dry conditions return Sunday and Monday, with warming temperatures.

- Another storm system is expected to arrive around the Tuesday
  period next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 406 AM MDT Wed Mar 12 2025

Currently...Upper trough was pushing out of NV and into the Four
Corners region as an open wave, producing moisture advection for
western CO as well as a slight increase in cloud cover. Breezy winds
have kept temps more mild this morning, with readings as of 2 AM in
the 20s and 30s for the high valleys, and 30s and 40s for the plains.

Today...The upper shortwave will quickly push east across NM and CO
today, providing for some isolated showers across the southwest mts
this afternoon. At this time temps look to be warm enough that there
will likely be a few hrs of very light snow or a rain/snow mix, with
very little accumulation expected. At the same time, across the
eastern plains, surface winds are forecast to be northerly as this
feature passes to the south. Continued dry conditions, with
widespread minimum RH levels of 10-15% for the eastern plains,
combined with occasionally brisk northerly winds, will produce some
spotty critical fire weather conditions for portions of the plains.
Focus areas will be Huerfano County, then pushing east across Las
Animas County and then Baca County. It does not look like there will
be enough coverage for a long enough time window to warrant any sort
of fire weather highlight today, but outdoor activities should still
be monitored closely. Plan on high temps today in the 50s for the
high valleys, and 60s to lower 70s for the plains.

Tonight...As the southern upper shortwave continues east out of the
area, southwest flow aloft begins in earnest ahead of the next
approaching Pacific system. While mostly clear skies are anticipated
through the night which normally means efficient radiational
cooling, winds will be picking up and those locations along the
eastern slopes of the eastern mts will likely stay somewhat mild
through the night. For the rest of the area, look for lows in the
upper teens to mid 20s for the high valleys, and 30s for the plains.
Moore

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 406 AM MDT Wed Mar 12 2025

Thursday: Thursday will bring the first day of an impactful Spring
storm to south central and southeastern Colorado. A large trough
will approach the area throughout the day, and will start to pass
over overnight. In response to this, forcing will increase,
especially orographic forcing as flow rises. In addition to that,
moisture will start to uptick as a blob of Pacific moisture is
pulled up and into the developing system. With the increase in
forcing and moisture, snow showers will blossom along the higher
terrain throughout the day, and then expand across the valleys as
the trough pushes eastward. The heaviest snow is expected along the
San Juan Mountains where forcing will be maximized. Along with all
of that, given the surge in flow and strong winds along the
mountains, wind driven moderate to heavy snow is expected for the
mountains. As for the plains, dry conditions are anticipated to
prevail throughout the day. Speaking of the plains, critical fire
weather conditions are expected. With gusty winds around 30 mph and
low humidity values between 10-13%, widespread critical fire weather
conditions are anticipated to materialize in this localized area
during the afternoon. Otherwise, a relatively clear day will
progressively become more cloudy from west to east, and gusty winds
are expected for much of the region. Looking at temperatures,
Thursday will bring a warm day, as downsloping winds overspread
the region, warming many to above seasonal values for mid March,
especially across the plains.

Friday: For the end of the week, another active weather day is
expected for south central and southeastern Colorado as the
aforementioned storm system continues its push eastward.
Synoptically, the trough will continue to trek eastward over the
area throughout the first half of the day, and will lift to the
northeast during the later half of the day. Forcing from this wave
will be greatest during the first half of the day, and given this,
snow shower coverage over the mountains and valleys will be greatest
during this period. As the system pulls to the northeast later in
the day, snow showers across these areas will steadily decrease in
coverage and intensity, with only isolated to scattered snow showers
remaining along the mountains by the evening. In addition, as the
system passes over, a rapidly deepening lee cyclone is expected to
develop early in the day across far eastern Colorado/far west
central Kansas, and also eject to the northeast with the parent
wave. As the cyclone develops and treks eastward, wrap around
precipitation is expected to blossom along the backside of the low
as a trowal wraps around the feature. With that all said, there is
not a lot of cold air initially with this system, and this will
limit how low snow levels drop, with current thinking snow levels
fall to around 5,500 ft during the day, when wrap around
precipitation is most likely. This means a slushy, wet snow is
expected above this level, with all rain below this level. In
addition, model soundings show low levels may start off rather dry
despite the midlevel trowal. This will hinder how much rain or snow
can reach the ground early in the afternoon, until the low levels
can finally become more saturated. Any precipitation present across
the plains Friday afternoon is expected to dissipate by the evening
as the lee cyclone and parent storm system race to the northeast.
Finally, along with all of that, strong winds are expected as this
cyclone deepens, especially across the eastern mountains and
eastward across the plains. There is still some uncertainty though
regarding how strong winds will ultimately be, especially for the
plains, but given the strength of the low, widespread 50-55 mph
winds, and possibly up to 60 mph, is likely. Beyond all of that, a
cloudy day is anticipated, with mild temperatures for many. Speaking
of temperatures, and as alluded to, given the lack of significant
cold air with this system initially, much of the region will
still remain at to slightly below seasonal values.

Saturday: Overall, a slightly quieter weather day is expected for
much of the region to start the weekend, with mountain snow
persisting. The broader trough that brought the Thursday - Friday
wave will slowly continue its trek eastward, and as it does so,
another shortwave will become ingested into the flow and swung
southward along the western periphery of the longwave trough. This
wave will bring another period of enhanced forcing throughout
Saturday, especially along the mountains. Given this, snow showers
will increase in coverage again along the higher terrain, though a
shower being pushed across the valleys can`t be ruled out. With that
all said though, the broader trough and the ingested wave will exit
the area late Saturday, and as forcing lessens, snow showers will
steadily decrease in coverage and intensity from west to east, with
dry conditions prevailing by Sunday morning. Outside of all of that,
cloudy skies throughout the day will start to give way to mostly
clear skies overnight, with breezy conditions for many, especially
along the mountains and within the valleys. As for temperatures,
cooler air will finally start to filter into the region, with most
of the area falling to below seasonal values.

Sunday - Monday: For the end of the weekend and start of next week,
quieter weather prevails. A ridge of high pressure will develop over
the area and push eastward during this period. With greater
subsidence in place, dry conditions are expected for south central
and southeastern Colorado. The exception to this may be Monday
night, as showers develop along the Continental Divide in response to
another approaching storm system. Otherwise, occasional mid to high
level clouds are anticipated, with relatively light winds Sunday,
and gustier winds Monday. Temperatures will start to rebound during
this timeframe, with near seasonal values Sunday, and the above
seasonal values Monday as widespread downsloping winds materialize.

Tuesday: Heading further into next week, as alluded to, another
storm system is expected to arrive, and bring more active weather to
south central and southeastern Colorado. With the uptick in forcing,
and moisture, with this wave, precipitation chances will increase
for much of the area, but especially along the mountains where
forcing will be greatest. Along with that, an increase in winds and
cloud cover is expected, with stronger winds anticipated along the
higher terrain. Looking at temperatures, a slightly cool down is
expected given the unsettled pattern, though temperatures may only
fall to around seasonal values.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 406 AM MDT Wed Mar 12 2025

VFR conditions anticipated over the next 24 hrs for the forecast
area, including the three main TAF sites of KPUB, KCOS and KALS.
While winds are forecast to remain generally under 12 kts for most
locations, all three sites will see intermittent afternoon gusts up
to around 20 kts between 21z and 01z.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM Thursday to noon MDT Friday
for COZ060.
Winter Storm Watch from Thursday afternoon through Friday
morning for COZ068.
Red Flag Warning from noon to 8 PM MDT Thursday for COZ227>237.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...SIMCOE
AVIATION...MOORE