815
FXUS65 KPUB 302050
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
250 PM MDT Wed Jul 30 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Flash Flooding potential continues into tonight and tomorrow.

- Chances for below normal temperatures and continued showers
  and storms persist into Friday.

- A warming and drying trend begins on Saturday, with above
  normal temperatures and very dry conditions expected by early
  next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 241 PM MDT Wed Jul 30 2025

Currently..

Temperatures are in the 70s on our plains and over our mountain
valleys as of 1 PM, with dewpoints primarily in the 50s. There are a
few dewpoints in the 60s on the far eastern plains and a few 40s
over the San Luis Valley. Winds are mainly easterly over the plains,
with scattered to broken mid and upper-level cloud decks. Showers
and thunderstorms began over the central mountains and are
widespread over Lake, Chaffee, and Saguache counties spreading
into the Pikes Peak region as of 230 PM. Storms have been
moving ENE but are expected to shift to a more easterly and
eventually ESEerly motion throughout the afternoon and evening.
Storm motions are slow.

Rest of Today and Tonight..

A Flash Flood Watch remains in effect through 10 PM for all of our
eastern mountains, the Pikes Peak region, Fremont County, the I-25
corridor, and eastwards onto portions of our plains. Heavy rain is
expected with widespread thunderstorms today. Thunderstorms will
continue to slowly push east across the I-25 corridor through this
afternoon, then eastwards onto the plains later this evening,
clearing into Kansas throughout the very early morning hours of
tomorrow. Overcast skies will keep temperatures mild on our plains,
with lows ranging from upper 50s to low 60s. Clearing skies over the
high country and high mountain valleys will give way to cooler
temperatures in the 30s and 40s. Clearing skies over the San Luis
Valley could also lead to patchy fog and low cloud development
early tomorrow morning. If southeasterly winds redevelop early
enough along the I-25 corridor, patchy fog will also be
possible for portions of our mountain adjacent plains as well.

Tomorrow..

The upper ridge axis remains in place as we head into tomorrow,
leading to southwest flow aloft and moist southeasterly flow at the
surface. Overnight convection and outflow boundaries surging
easterly across the plains will lead to very moist start to our day,
especially on the plains. Much of the area will start out the day
with 100% rh and dewpoints in the 50s and 60s. PWATs do begin to
decrease slightly as we head into tomorrow, especially over the high
country. Values look to drop from around 1.0 down closer to 0.8 over
the eastern mountains, with lesser amounts further westwards. On the
plains, vlaues decrease from 1.0-1.4 to more like 0.8-1.2. QPF
amounts remain very similar to today though, ranging from 0.2 to 0.5
along the I-25 corridor, with highest amounts over eastern Fremont
and Pueblo counties, where easterly upslope will be favored. The WPC
has the entire forecast outlined for another marginal risk of Flash
Flooding for tomorrow. For now, have held off on Watch issuance, in
favor of waiting to see more high res trends, along with trends from
today`s rainfall. At this time though, Flash Flood Watch issuance
for tomorrow does seem likely (70% chance), with heavy rainfall and
Flash Flooding possible for much of the area. Of course, this will
be highly dependent on where individual storms end up, and which
areas may end up being too stable as well. As for the severe risk,
SPC has portions of the Pikes Peak region in a marginal risk for
severe weather for tomorrow. Though instability will be on the
higher end, ranging from 1500-2000 J/Kg depending on which model you
ask, shear looks to be maximized over northern portions of our
forecast area, with the wave passing to our north tomorrow.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 301 AM MDT Wed Jul 30 2025

Friday...Upper ridge starts to flatten out and build back
across AZ and southern CA, allowing for more of a southern
surface flow and slightly warmer aftn temperatures. However,
low-level moisture pool remains rich with little change to
dewpoints, and an upper disturbance crossing the Rockies through
the day will provide the spark for another round of afternoon
and evening convection. Storm movement will likely be to the
east, and QPF is reduced compared to Thu. However, forecast CAPE
is very high especially near the eastern border through the
late aftn, coinciding with a bulk shear maxima. Current SPC
guidance is just indicating General thunder across much of
Colorado, but would not be surprised if this gets adjusted as
well. Though QPF is lower, there is plenty of storm fuel to tap
into and flash flooding will continue to be a concern for
susceptible areas after rainfall from the previous days. Plan on
highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s for the high valleys, and
upper 70s to upper 80s for the plains.

Saturday through Tuesday...Long range models indicate that the upper
ridge of high pressure starts to build back into the Four Corners
region over the weekend and into the beginning of the next work
week. Scattered mt convection will reoccur once again for Sat, but
then Sunday onward will see just isolated activity each aftn and eve
for much of the area. A warming trend will settle in as well, with
highs climbing back into the 90s for the plains, and mid to upper
80s for the high valleys. Moore

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 241 PM MDT Wed Jul 30 2025

VFR conditions are expected for the next few hours before chances
for showers and thunderstorms move in later this afternoon and this
evening. Generally from 20Z through around 02Z, chances for showers
and storms look to move over each station, with brief reductions to
MVFR visibilities possible due to heavier rainfall within
thunderstorms. Lingering showery activity will be possible through
around 08Z as well, especially at KCOS and KPUB. After showers and
storms clear to the east, winds are expected to shift easterly as
well. This will increase chances for MVFR and IFR ceilings and
visibilities early Thursday morning, generally from 10Z onwards.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until 10 PM MDT this evening for COZ072>089-093-
094.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EHR/KT
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...EHR