933
FXUS65 KPUB 080522
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1122 PM MDT Tue Oct 7 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Low clouds, stratus and patchy fog will return to the
  southeast plains tonight but erode quicker with a warmer
  temperatures returning for Wednesday.

- Warming and drying conditions will set in through the rest of
  the week, with showers over the higher terrain.

- Wetter conditions still on tap for this weekend, particularly
  over the mountains.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 204 PM MDT Tue Oct 7 2025

Stratus has been slow to break across much of the plains this
afternoon and as we loose day time heating easterly upslope flow
will push this back into the lower eastern slopes of the
southeast mountains with clouds bases lowering overnight and
some patchy fog possible in and near the upslope terrain region.
Moisture looks a little more shallow with less upper forcing
expected tonight so think we won`t see as much in the way of
drizzle. Whee we could see some precipitation would be the
southern mountains and southern San Luis Valley this evening as
southerly flow is advecting higher dew points northward and a
cu field is evident across Conejos and Costilla counties. Not
expecting much moisture from these, and have trimmed northern
extent of isolated pops southward quite a bit as odds look less
favorable farther north. Otherwise, should see low temperatures
a little warmer tonight across the southwest mountains and
interior valleys as low level moisture increases. May even see
some low clouds and fog develop towards dawn in the center of
the valley and southwest slopes of the eastern San Juans though
think this will still be fairly patchy in nature for one more
night.

Upper ridge builds for Wednesday and southerly winds increase
through the day. This should help erode stratus across the
plains more quickly tomorrow morning with breezy southerly winds
helping to provide sufficient mixing to bring a return of 70s to
lower 80s for highs. Mountains and interior valleys should be
similar to a degree or two warmer given rising heights aloft.
South to southwesterly flow will continue to advect low level
moisture northward which should yield isolated to scattered
afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms across the
southern mountains as a tropical moisture fetch gets tapped.
Will be watching what happens as moisture from the remnants of
hurricane Priscilla continues to spread in from the south.
Precipitable waters well ahead of Priscilla climb to near 150%
of normal in ensembles by Wed afternoon across the eastern San
Juans, so as time goes on, main thunderstorm risks will trend
towards heavy rainfall. -KT

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 346 AM MDT Tue Oct 7 2025


Thursday Onwards...

The warming trend will continue into the latter half of the week,
with the upper ridge continuing to build overhead. High temps will
climb into the mid-80s over the plains, with the area remaining
generally dry outside of some scattered POPs in our western
mountains. As we move into the weekend, the high pressure to our
south will begin pushing more east, while a deep closed low moves
onto the west coast. Meanwhile, the remnants of a tropical cyclone
will push up the western coast of Mexico, injecting more moisture
into the synoptic flow. Beyond this point, model solutions begin to
diverge, handling the evolution of this complex pattern in different
ways. Overall, trends have shown for a cooler, wetter, and generally
more active weather period later this weekend and into early next
week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1122 PM MDT Tue Oct 7 2025

For KCOS and KPUB..IFR ceilings are expected to persist through the
rest of tonight and into the early morning hours of Wednesday, with
LIFR ceilings and drizzle expected at KCOS as well. Improvement is
likely for KCOS after 15Z, and after 14Z for KPUB. Once ceilings
lift in the morning, VFR conditions are likely to persist throughout
the remainder of the TAF period. There is a very slight chance of a
shower or thunderstorm at KPUB Wednesday afternoon, though chances
were too low (less than 30%) to include in the TAF at this time. For
the most part, convection should remain south of both stations.

For KALS..MVFR visibility in mist will be possible early Wednesday
morning for KALS and across the San Luis Valley. Improvement and VFR
conditions are likely after 14Z. Showers and thunderstorms are
possible (30% chances) for Wednesday afternoon, though most
convection is expected to remain along the higher terrain, and to
the south of the station for the most part.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...GARBEROGLIO
AVIATION...EHR