384
FXUS65 KPUB 261731
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1131 AM MDT Thu Jun 26 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Drying and warming trend sets in Today and last into the weekend.

- Some isolated-scattered showers and thunderstorms possible
  today, mainly over the southeast mountains and near the Raton
  Mesa area.

- Isolated showers and thunderstorms are expected for Saturday, mainly
  over the eastern mountains, the Pikes Peak region, and the
  Raton Mesa. Temperatures remain a few degrees warmer than
  normal.

- A pattern change arrives Sunday, leading to a period of near
  to below normal temperatures, and daily chances for widespread
  showers and storms through much of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 328 AM MDT Thu Jun 26 2025

Today-Tonight...

Upper-level trough will move off to the northeast today, leaving us
with disorganized zonal flow aloft. Temperatures will increase a bit
today, with highs in the mid-80s to low-90s over the plains, and 70s-
80s over the high valleys and elevated areas. A generally drier
airmass will move in from the west as well, as some short-lived high
pressure builds in over the western half of Colorado. Expect a
decrease in thunderstorm coverage and intensity compared to
yesterday. Best chances for precipitation will be a slight chance
for some isolated to scattered storms. These storms will form in the
mid-afternoon hours, primarily over our southeast mountains and the
Raton Mesa area due to a disturbance in the flow over New Mexico.
Given the generally low dewpoints, storms won`t last long, mainly
producing gusty outflow winds and possibly some small hail. Best
storm coverage will be over our southern border, with slightly
better moisture remaining over Las Animas and Baca Counties. Any
lingering convection will come to an end this evening into the early
overnight hours, with low temperatures remaining in the 50s-60s over
the plains, and in the 40s over the mountain valleys.


Friday...

Drying trend will persist into Friday as high pressure slowly builds
in from the south and west. Chances for showers are lower still on
Friday, with some isolated-scattered POPs over the Pikes Peak Region
and the Raton later in the afternoon. Any storms that do manage to
form will be relatively weak, mainly producing gusty outflow winds.
Meanwhile, low dewpoints at the surface will keep conditions dry,
though fairly light winds will limit any fire weather concerns at
this time. For temperatures, highs increase again moving towards the
end of the week, with high-80s to 90s over the plains and low-80s
over the valleys.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 328 AM MDT Thu Jun 26 2025

Friday Night and Saturday..

Convection looks to taper early in the evening hours of Friday,
clearing from west to east across our far eastern plains by around
9pm or so at the latest. Overnight lows will be very close to
normal, cooling into the 60s across the eastern plains, 50s for the
I-25 corridor, and 40s for mountain valleys. Models continue to show
a transition period for Friday and Saturday as high pressure builds
in over the southwest, and eventually centers itself over the Four
Corners region next week. This will mean messy southwest flow with
slightly above normal temperatures and southerly flow at the surface
for Saturday. Highs look to climb into the 90s across much of the
plains, with 80s for the northern and southern I-25 corridors, and
80s for mountain valleys as well. Showers and storms look increase
in coverage slightly from Friday, but will likely remain isolated
and mainly confined the higher country, the Pikes Peak region, and
the Raton Mesa for Saturday afternoon.

Sunday Onwards..

Models continue to depict shortwave energy traversing the region on
Sunday, along with a cold frontal passage sometime Sunday evening.
Showers and thunderstorms look to increase in coverage on Sunday,
with scattered coverage expected over portions of the high country.
Depending on cold frontal timing, we will likely see another day of
slightly above normal temperatures on Sunday before the front
arrives, with most plains locations still climbing into the 80s and
90s. Behind the front, temperatures fall back down into the 4 to 6
degrees cooler than normal range for Monday and Tuesday. Highs both
days are likely to remain in the 80s over both the plains and our
mountain valleys. Chances for near or below normal temperatures and
widespread, persistent showers and storms increase for much of next
week in fact, as models continue to build high pressure over the
Four Corners region with a low off the California coast. With the
low sitting off the coast and the pattern persistence not quite yet
known, this forecaster is hesitant to officially call next week`s
setup the start of the monsoon, however, it does show promising
signs of bringing some much needed "monsoon-looking" moisture to the
region, especially to our southwest mountains.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1123 AM MDT Thu Jun 26 2025

VFR at all taf sites the next 24 hrs with diurnal wind cycle of
12 kts or less. Low risk of a -tsra over Pikes Peak Region/Palmer
Divide this afternoon, though activity looks too isolated to
include in the KCOS taf at this point.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GARBEROGLIO
LONG TERM...EHR
AVIATION...PETERSEN