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FXUS65 KPUB 212011
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
211 PM MDT Fri Aug 21 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Monsoon moisture strengthens slightly through most of next
  week with daily chances for showers and thunderstorms over
  the region.

- Flooding and flash flooding will be possible each day over the
  Aspen Acres and 24 burn scars, urban areas, and over regions
  with saturated soils.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 211 PM MDT Fri Aug 21 2026

Thunderstorm coverage will continue to be more isolated late this
afternoon and evening. The primary risks will be gusty outflow winds
of up to 40 MPH - so keep an eye out for virga which would be an
indicator of strong winds. Underneath the core of the thunderstorm
will be locally heavy rainfall. At this point in time, there is no
hail in the forecast. As for flash flooding risks this afternoon, it
is fairly low - one cannot rule out an isolated storm that develops
over the burn scar in which we`ll have to issue a Flash Flood
Warning, but the chances are low (<20%).

Overnight low temperatures will be in the low 60s across the plains
and the 50s over mountain valleys.

The stronger monsoonal tap returns once again tomorrow as the upper
level high pressure center building today compresses allowing a
westerly moist flow reach Colorado. The main question is if to issue
a Flash Flood Watch for tomorrow for the Aspen Acres Burn Scar. I
cannot say right now with 50% certainty or higher that the burn scar
will have a flash flood tomorrow, therefore I will hold off on the
Watch for this forecast cycle. Check back with the overnight
crew.

High temperatures tomorrow will be in the mid to upper 60s
across the plains and in the upper 80s to low 90s over the
mountain valleys.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 211 PM MDT Fri Aug 21 2026

Monsoon moisture will be present throughout most of the week. Sunday
afternoon and evening has the strongest flooding signal for the
Aspen Acres burn scar with enough confidence for thunderstorm
development further south across the region. The 500hPa high is
compressed enough in response to a wave passing to the north of the
high to allow these storms to develop. So keep an eye out for a
Flash Flood Watch for Sunday afternoon.  Monday through Wednesday
has a lot of similarities, however. The high is centered south of
Colorado and allows that monsoonal moisture over the west to advect
over southern Colorado, so there will be daily chances for showers
and thunderstorms over our mountains, mountain valleys, and plains.
We`ll need to be on higher alert for flooding and flash flooding
over urban areas, regions with saturated soils, and over our burn
scars, including the Aspen Acres burn scar.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1155 AM MDT Fri Aug 21 2026

VFR conditions will be prevailing for KALS, KCOS, and KPUB
throughout the forecast period. There are periods in all TAF
sites have PROB30 posted, however the primary risks during those
periods will be gusty outflow winds of up to 30-40kts. If under
the core of the storm, locally heavy remain possible with MVFR
to LIFR conditions briefly. Storm chances diminish after sunset
and light and variable winds take over.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SKELLY
LONG TERM...SKELLY
AVIATION...SKELLY