980
FXUS65 KPUB 132312
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
512 PM MDT Wed Aug 13 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Temperatures continue to warm this week, with dry conditions
  slowly giving way to moisture over the mountains.

- Near daily afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms across
  the Mountains through the weekend, with activity spreading
  across the Plains Monday and Tuesday.

- Temperatures remain hot, with mainly 90s to around 100 across
  the Plains, and 80s over the valleys.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 236 PM MDT Wed Aug 13 2025

Dry and hot conditions will continue to be the trend through
the period, as an upper ridge remains situated in place over the
region. This ridge in place with some westerly component is
supporting rising 700mb temps, with latest RAP analysis
indicating temps approaching 18-20C at this time. Meanwhile
falling dewpoints in this setup is allowing instability to lower
and push further to the east. In all, this will limit precip
development this afternoon into the evening. If anything manages
to develop, it will remain rather isolated, low in intensity,
and confined to areas over and near the higher terrain.

No real big changes with the pattern by tomorrow, with hot and
mainly dry conditions in place. Some slight increase in ascent
will occur over the higher terrain, as some weak mid level
energy traverses this flow. Again, soundings are rather dry and
instability on the low side. Nonetheless, this setup will
support the possibility of dry lightning on Thursday and have
upgraded the Fire Weather Watch to a Red Flag Warning to account
for this. Did increase temps slightly on Thursday and did
debate going higher along with going with a Heat Advisory across
the plains. However, increased cloud cover during the day could
limit temps, and will let the evening/overnight reassess this
need.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 324 AM MDT Wed Aug 13 2025

Models mostly in agreement through the extended period, with the
main differences being the handling of individual embedded waves
moving across Colorado and thunderstorm potential.

Thursday night through Sunday...an upper level high pressure
center will be situated across the Missouri Valley through late
week, before it starts to retrograde back westward over the
weekend. With the upper high to the east, southerly flow, with
multiple embedded waves will impact the region. Increasing
moisture and monsoonal flow will lead to increasing daily
afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms across the
higher terrain. The day with the largest model differences is
Saturday. The GFS is mostly dry across the region, while the
ECMWF, ICON and Canadian solutions are more activity, with a
decent wave moving across the region. The NBM guidance is more
in line with the cluster of guidances that are more active, and
therefore did not stray from the NBM output for Saturday. By
Sunday, the upper high moves overhead, and will begin the
transition in the upper pattern.

Temperatures through this period will remain hot, with mostly
90s each afternoon across the Plains, and 80s over the San Luis
Valley. Overnight lows will remain mild, with 50s and 60s across
the lower elevations.

Monday into Wednesday...the upper high will continue to
retrograde westward into early to mid next week. This will
switch our upper level flow from southerly to easterly, helping
to back low level moisture into the Plains. The main concern
will be the amount of moisture that works northward under the
upper high out of the Desert Southwest. Low level easterly
upslope flow and moisture will combine with any upper waves
moving across Colorado to produce more widespread shower and
thunderstorm activity across the region, especially Monday and
Tuesday, as the Eastern Mountains have the potential for heavier
rainfall. Overall, temperatures will remain on the hot side,
with 80s and 90s across the Plains, and 80s over the San Luis
Valley.  Mozley

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 511 PM MDT Wed Aug 13 2025

VFR conditions are near certain the next 24 hours at all 3 taf
sites, KPUB, KALS and KCOS. WInds will generally be light and
diurnally driven.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from noon to 10 PM MDT Thursday for COZ220-
222-223-225.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RODRIGUEZ
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...HODANISH/RODRIGUEZ