636
FXUS65 KPUB 070503
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1103 PM MDT Fri Jun 6 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Severe thunderstorms likely through this evening across the southeast
  plains with all severe hazards possible.

- Warmer Saturday, with a decrease in storm chances, and only
  some isolated activity expected over the mountains and along
  the New Mexico border.

- Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms return to the
  region on Sunday, continuing through next week, while
  temperatures remain seasonably warm.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 901 PM MDT Fri Jun 6 2025

Updated to expire the Tornado Watch for Prowers, Baca and Las
Animas Counties at 9 PM. The two supercells have tracked
southeast into the Oklahoma Panhandle as of 9 PM, and the severe
threats associated with them have come to an end. There is a
weak line of showers/thunderstorms along the Highway 50 corridor
from Monarch Pass, to Pueblo West. For the most part this
activity is weak, and the HRRR guidance has it dissipating
through midnight. But a quick rain shower and lightning strike
will be possible through midnight. There is also a thunderstorm
tracking southeast into Kiowa County, which will continue
tracking southeast through 11 PM. Small hail and gusty winds
near 50 mph may be possible with this thunderstorm.  Mozley

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 214 PM MDT Fri Jun 6 2025

Not much change in the latest thinking with a favorable evening
for severe thunderstorms across the southeast plains capable of
all hazard types from very large hail to damaging winds and even
a couple of tornadoes. HREF mean CAPE values are sitting around
1000-1500 J/kg, which is not too far off SPC Mesoanalysis
values. If dew points can maintain in the low 50s along the I-25
corridor around peak heating we could easily yield some higher
CAPE values per NAM soundings. Up to 2000+ J/kg will be possible
farther east across the plains with upper 50s to lower 60 dew
points. Impressive deep layer shears 50+ kts and favorable low
level helicities will continue to favor supercell development
with straight line hodographs suggest storm splits. Low level
hodograph curvature improves into the evening across the
eastern plains and SSCRAM output suggest unconditional tor
probabilities maximizing around LHX eastward after 00z. HREF
updraft helicities show some impressive swaths across the
southeast plains and Tornado watch will continue through 03z
with a possible need to extend for an hour across far southeast
plains until 04z.

Activity will gradually pull eastward through the evening and
exit eastern CO overnight. Will need to watch for possible
ground fog development overnight, particularly across the far
eastern plains.

Saturday will be a down day for thunderstorms, providing a much
needed break from severe thunderstorms of late. Upper trough
which is forcing today`s convection will be east of the area
which ushers in some drier dew points and more subsident
conditions. There is another much weaker wave that glances by to
the northeast during the afternoon. Could see some isolated
thunderstorms across southern areas in the afternoon, but lower
CAPE suggests sub severe thunderstorms for now. Temperatures
will rebound around 5 degrees.  -KT

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 308 AM MDT Fri Jun 6 2025

Northern stream wave sends a cold front through the plains Sat
night/Sun morning, bringing a renewed surge of easterly upslope
winds by afternoon. Instability is modest (CAPE 500-1000 J/KG)
most locations, though higher dewpoints over the far sern
corner of the plans may boost CAPE toward 1500 J/KG by late day.
Overall, expect an upturn in t-storm coverage over the ern
mountains and across the plains Sun afternoon/evening, with few
strong storms possible in the more unstable air mass over the
far southeast. Max temps Sunday to drift downward a few degf
versus Sat, as cold front ushers in a slightly cooler air mass
over the ern half of the area.

Northwest flow aloft persists Mon/Tue across the region, with
afternoon/evening storms both days, most numerous over the
eastern mountains and across the plains. Upper ridge then shifts
east by mid/late week, with flow become more wly over CO.
Moisture remains in place, and with several weak short waves
progged to migrate through the western U.S., daily
shower/thunderstorm chances will continue. Temps will remain
seasonably warm through the period.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1103 PM MDT Fri Jun 6 2025

KALS...VFR conditions through the period.  There is a very low chance
of a shower or thunderstorm to the south of the terminal on Saturday
afternoon, but confidence in one hitting the terminal is low.

KCOS and KPUB...VFR conditions through the next 24 hours.  There is a
low potential for fog at KPUB late tonight into Saturday morning.
Confidence in this occurring is low at this time.  Winds will generally
be light and diurnally driven at both terminals. Mozley

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MOZLEY
SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...PETERSEN
AVIATION...MOZLEY