269
FXUS65 KPUB 221918
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
118 PM MDT Wed Jul 22 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Flash flood concerns for the susceptible flooding areas (Chalk
Bluffs and Aspen Acres/Willow Burn Scars) high today and tomorrow.

- Aspen Acres burn area could see gusty northeast winds this
evening which could initiate additional thunderstorms over the burn
area.

- Becoming very hot SAT-SUN-MON >>> 100 to 107F a good part of
  plains.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 116 PM MDT Wed Jul 22 2026

Note: AA = Aspen Acres burn area

Rest if Today...

Water vapor imagery pretty much tells the story for the short-term
as the monsoon plume is bulging eastward and a well defined
shortwave is spinning over the 4 corners region.

Main concern will be flash flooding, Primary area of concern will be
along the CONTDVD region. Last several day monsoon plume has caused
several incidents of flash flooding on the west slope and this plume
is now advection east. Some of this moisture will push as far east
as the plains, and will have to keep an eye on the Aspen Acres (AA)
burn scar for later this afternoon. Showers over the s mtns are not
expected to be as extensive as along the CONTDVD, but it will not
take much to get flooding over the AA fire.

For this evening...

Showers and storms will likely continue well into the evening and
overnight hours across the region. Best chance for storm during the
overnight time period will be over the mtns and valleys, but showers
and storms should linger over the plains this evening. Locally heavy
rain will be possible all areas during the evening hours. This
moisture is associated with the monsoon plume along with a weak
disturbance in the developing westerly mid level flow over the
region.

A boundary is fcst to move across the region during the early
evening hours and this will bring a period of gusty north to
northeast winds to the plains. especially along the I-25 corridor.
These gusty winds will likely impact the AA burn area during the mid
evening (8-9 pm) time frame. There is a possibility that this
outflow boundary could initiate thunderstorm over the AA fire area
during this time period.


&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 116 PM MDT Wed Jul 22 2026

Tomorrow

Considerable showers and thunderstorms are likely tomorrow across
all of the region. Favorable forcing aloft associated with the
monsoon plume will allow for locally heavy rain showers over the
region. Guidance indicates that we will see a much better chance of
heavier showers over the AA fire, and a flash flood watch is in
effect for this burn area tomorrow. The activity should push out
onto the plains by late afternoon and into the evening hours.

Temperatures over the far eastern plains should be quite hot
tomorrow as temps will reach to around 104. Along the I-25 corridor,
higher clouds should move in relatively early which will temper the
temperatures a bit (U90s).

Friday...

Max temperatures should be a 2-3F cooler  than on Thursday. Plains
will likely be stable this day and expect most of the showers and
storms to remain in the mountains. Best overall showers will be over
the southern Sangres and San Juans. However we still could see some
locally heavy showers, and the wrong showers over the wrong area
could cause flash flooding over the burn scars.

SAT-SUN-MON....

HOT. Widespread 100+ readings over the plains with mid/upper 90s
over the remainder of the plains, San Luis valley will likely see
temps around 90F. The mid level heat dome aloft will be over the
region so winds will be light. Moisture will be "stuck" under this
high pressure aloft and there will be storms over the mtns, and if
they develop, they will not move much, so flash flooding will be a
concern over the high country.

Looking at the statistical guidance, it does show a SLOW cooling
trend through next week. My confidence in this happening is not too
high as this trend has been shown in the past and it has not
occurred. However, we can always hope for the best. /Hodanish

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1128 AM MDT Wed Jul 22 2026

Isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible this
afternoon into the early evening hours at all 3 taf sites,
KPUB, KALS and KCOS, but overall best chance will be at KCOS and
KALS.

By early evening....AOA 02 UTC, a cold front will push south
across the KCOS and KPUB areas and gusty north winds and showers
will be possible with the fropa and will last 2-3 hours.

By later this evening into early tomorrow morning anticipate VFR
conditions.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until 10 PM MDT this evening for COZ059>061.
Flash Flood Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday
evening for COZ079-080-086.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...HODANISH