123
FXUS65 KPUB 012027
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
227 PM MDT Tue Jul 1 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Afternoon showers and thunderstorms are expected along the
  higher terrain and valleys through this evening and again on
  Wednesday.

- Seasonable weather pattern over region, with scattered showers
  mountain valleys with isolated precipitation the over plains.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 210 PM MDT Tue Jul 1 2025

Currently...radar shows showers and thunderstorms developing
across the higher terrain this afternoon. Weak steering flows
aloft will keep thunderstorms anchored to the higher terrain.
Southerly flow remains in place across the Plains, where
temperatures have warmed into the 80s to lower 90s.

Rest of today and tonight...broad upper ridging will remain
place across the Rockies through tonight. Weak energy lifting
north across the Western Slope will rotate northeast into
northern Colorado this evening. Expected continued showers and
thunderstorms across the higher terrain into the evening hours.
At this time, the Plains look to remain dry. A couple of storms
will likely pass along the Palmer Divide through this afternoon,
mainly impacting areas of northern El Paso County. The main
thunderstorm risks will be brief heavy rainfall, lightning,
small hail and wind gusts near 40 mph.  Temperatures will top
out in the upper 80s and lower 90s across the Plains, and near
80 across the San Luis Valley this afternoon, falling off into
the 50s to lower 60s on the Plains, and 40s across the San Luis
Valley.

Wednesday...the upper pattern will remain nearly steady, with
high pressure drifting slowly east into Western Kansas by late
afternoon. Weak energy will continue to lift north across
western Colorado, with another round of afternoon showers and
thunderstorms, mainly along the Continental Divide. An isolated
shower or thunderstorm may be possible over the Eastern
Mountains. Main thunderstorm risks will be brief heavy rainfall,
lightning and wind gusts near 40 mph. Conditions look to remain
dry on the Plains. Temperatures look to warm a few degrees as
well, with most of the Plains reaching the upper 80s to mid 90s
for highs, with lower 80s across the San Luis Valley.  Mozley

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 243 AM MDT Tue Jul 1 2025

Broad monsoon pattern will continue over the region through
this long term forecast period. This pattern will keep
temperatures around seasonable values over the fcst area.
Overall best chance of precip will continue over the mtns and
valleys with only isolated precip chances over the plains. There
will likely be a bit more enhanced chance of precip over the
mtns on Thursday as a trough to our north moves eastward, and
this will bring some better lift and moisture over the mtns on
this day.

Given the monsoon pattern is becoming established over the
higher terrain, there will be a chance of pockets of heavier
showers which may cause high water issues, especially in burn
scar region and areas that are susceptible to flash flooding.

As for the plains, it looks rather dry. The only chance of some
better chances of precip could be on Friday (4 July) if the
trough moving across to our north can bring down a boundary,
this could increase the convergence over the plains giving us a
slightly better chance of some precip over the lower elevations,
but at this time it does not look favorable. /Hodanish

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 210 PM MDT Tue Jul 1 2025

KALS...VFR conditions through the next 24 hours. A few showers
and thunderstorms will remain possible across the San Luis
Valley through sunset, and briefly reduced CIGS and VIS may be
possible with any cells that move across the terminal.
Thunderstorm coverage looks less on Wednesday across the San
Luis Valley.

KCOS and KPUB...a few showers and thunderstorms will pass north
of KCOS this afternoon and evening, but do not look to impact
the terminal. A few wind gusts in excess of 20 kts are likely at
both terminals this afternoon. Both terminals will see another
round of southeasterly winds on Wednesday.  Mozley

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...MOZLEY