003
FXUS65 KPUB 121214
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
514 AM MST Wed Feb 12 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Snow will continue today with the heaviest this morning before
  decreasing through the afternoon and evening.

- Dangerously cold temperatures are likely across portions of
  our plains from Wednesday evening through Thursday morning.
  Cold Weather Advisories are in place through this period.

- Impactful (but beneficial!) snow is expected across the high
  country Thursday night through Saturday morning, especially
  for our San Juans.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 507 AM MST Wed Feb 12 2025

Update issued to expire Winter Weather Advisories over the San
Juans and southern Sangres as scheduled early this morning.
Snowfall rates have decreased below Advisory levels, and
additional accumulations are not expected this morning.
Therefore, the Advisories were allowed to expire as scheduled.

A new Winter Storm Watch has been also issued with this update for
the San Juans and the eastern Sawatch Mountains valid from
Thursday Evening through Saturday morning. Snowfall totals of
one to two feet are expected, with higher amounts possible over
the San Juans. Snow will be wind driven, and difficult travel is
expected, especially through area mountain passes!

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 316 AM MST Wed Feb 12 2025

Upper trough still swinging through eastern CO early this morning
with moderate to heavy banded snow continuing across the southeast
plains. Strongest upglide/upper level forcing will be early this
morning before it shears eastward with the departing trough and snow
tapers down through the afternoon.  Already starting to see a
decreasing trend in radar echo coverage across El Paso county, and
suspect that advisories may be able to be taken down as early as 15z
along the I-25 corridor and the remainder of the southeast plains
shortly there after. Low level flow shifts around from and east to
southeast upslope component this afternoon which will likely keep
some cloud cover socked in across the eastern slopes of the
southeast mountains and adjacent plains through the afternoon.  This
will keep temperatures down towards the colder side of guidance and
25th percentile of NBM members.

With trailing energy in northwest flow moving across the area this
evening combined with shallow upslope, snow showers will continue
across the central and southeast mountains where favorable
orographics will continue.  Moisture will be the limiting factor
with this secondary wave, which will keep any additional
accumulations light.  System moves out quickly with clearing skies
from west to east overnight.  Dry airmass combined with a fresh snow
cover will set the stage for a very cold night with readings
dropping into the negative readings for most areas.  Although winds
will remain light, wind chills will drop below 15 below zero after
sundown and Cold Weather Advisories will be needed for most of our
plains and northern I-25 corridor. -KT

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 316 AM MST Wed Feb 12 2025

Thursday..

The coldest temperatures of the period are expected this evening
through tomorrow morning. Most of our plains look to be in the
single digits below zero for overnight lows Wednesday night into
Thursday morning, with similar conditions over mountain valleys, and
teens below zero for higher terrain locations. Cold Weather
Advisories have been hoisted over portions of the plains for tonight
through Thursday morning, where apparent temperatures (wind chills)
are expected to fall to around -20F. Wind chills this cold can cause
frostbite on exposed skin in less than 30 minutes! Those outdoors
should seek shelter tonight. The good news is that we recover fairly
quickly under mostly sunny skies tomorrow, with most locations
warming at least back into the 30s, though lingering snow on the
ground from today`s event will likely hinder some of our warming
potential a bit, especially north of highway 50. Warmer temperatures
into the 40s will be possible over our far southern plains and the
San Luis Valley. Dry conditions prevail for Thursday, which could
lead to fire weather concerns over the San Luis Valley for Thursday
afternoon depending on the strength of the incoming southwest winds.

Friday and Saturday..

Our next wave begins to approach by Friday, leading to strong
southwest flow aloft over our area. This will mean continued chances
for orographically enhanced snow showers over the high country on
Friday, along with above normal temperatures with gusty downsloping
winds on our plains. Models continue to hold off on bringing the
cold front with this next system through our plains until Friday
night. The overall consensus still seems to be that this will be a
very beneficial snow event for the high country, especially for our
San Juans (again, thank goodness!!) thanks to ample moisture and
strong upslope flow. Preliminary snowfall amounts look to range from
around 6 to 10 inches over our eastern mountains and La Garitas, to
over a foot for western portions of the central mountains, to over 2
feet for our San Juans. Temperatures remain somewhat warm and
uncertain on the plains, even after the front passes for a time,
which could lead to rain and mixed precipitation chances late Friday
into Saturday. At this time, best chances for light snow with this
event look to remain over and near the mountains. Temperatures will
be above normal on Friday, with highs in the 50s for mountain
valleys, and 50s to 60s on the plains. That said, southwest winds
gusting in excess of 40 mph will keep our apparent temperatures
somewhat lower than our ambient temperatures on Friday. Increasing
cloud cover throughout the day is also expected for Friday. After a
brief round of snow near the mountains Saturday morning, most plains
and mountain valley locations look to sit in the 30s and low 40s for
the rest of the day.

Sunday Onwards..

Models keep us in cooler northwest flow aloft for Sunday, suggesting
near or just below normal temperatures for most locations. This will
likely mean another day of highs in the 30s to 40s range on our
plains, and dry conditions for most locations. The one exception
will be our central mountains, where light snow and minimal
accumulations look possible. A warmup ensues for Monday, as westerly
flow increases over the region. Models hint at another system coming
in through mid-week, which looks to bring the potential for another
round of impactful snow to the region.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 316 AM MST Wed Feb 12 2025

Cigs/vis will be increasing into the VFR category for KCOS and KPUB
this morning as snow bands pull away to the east and diminish.  MVFR
cigs may return for KCOS this afternoon as northerly winds shift
around from the southeast and light snow showers develop along the
mountain interface with the approach of the next system.  Snow
diminishes this evening with VFR conditions and light winds
overnight.

KALS will stay VFR with a few snow showers along the valley edges
continuing this morning.  Winds will increase out of the west this
afternoon at with gusts to around 30 kts in the afternoon.  Winds
will decrease after 02z. -KT

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Storm Watch from Thursday evening through Saturday
afternoon for COZ060-067-068.
Winter Weather Advisory until 11 AM MST this morning for
COZ083>087.
Cold Weather Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 8 AM MST
Thursday for COZ084-085-089-093>099.
Winter Weather Advisory until 2 PM MST this afternoon for
COZ089-093-095>098.

&&

$$

UPDATE...EHR
SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...EHR
AVIATION...KT