181
FXUS65 KPUB 222346
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
446 PM MST Fri Nov 22 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry weather continues in the short term.

- Warmer high temperatures will persist through Saturday.

- Strong develop along the mountains, particularly the southern
  Sangre de Cristo Mountains, Saturday night.

- Active weather returns for the end of the weekend and much of
  next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 232 PM MST Fri Nov 22 2024

Today/Tonight

Currently, a broad ridge remains in place with winds light and
variable. As for temperatures, we`re sitting in the mid 50`s in the
eastern plains and low 60`s lee of the central mountains. As a large
trough of low pressure along the West Coast starts to deepen, the
flow aloft will start to increase and start shifting to a more
southwest direction across the Four Corners. This will likely help
keep those locations along the eastern slopes of the southern mts a
bit warmer tonight into Saturday morning.

Tomorrow

Ridge continues to move out with southwesterly winds aloft
increasing. Highs will be in the mid to upper 60`s just lee of the
central mountains and upper 50`s in the eastern plains. Weather
wise, we`re looking at nice weather again tomorrow with some spotty
high clouds. Surface winds will remain light and then start
increasing Saturday evening into Sunday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 232 PM MST Fri Nov 22 2024

Saturday Night: Relatively quiet weather is expected for much of
south central and southeastern Colorado Saturday night, though may
be a bit windy for some. Synoptically, flow will become
southwesterly and start to increase in magnitude as a jet streak
approaches the area. While orographic forcing will start to
increase, better synoptic support, along with better moisture
content, will remain further west, and given that, dry conditions
are expected for the region. As alluded to though, some windy
conditions will materialize overnight, mostly along the mountains,
and particularly along the southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains. A
mountain top inversion, along with reverse shear within the column,
will force stronger winds aloft associated with the approaching jet
streak to the surface immediately along the leeward side of the
mountains. Most wind gusts will range between 50-60 mph, though
gusts to 60-70 mph, and even slightly higher, will be possible along
the southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains. Confidence in the
development of 50-70 mph wind gusts, and the area of strongest wind
gusts, is high (70%) given strong agreement between various model
guidance. Beyond all of that, most other areas will have relatively
light winds, and much of the region will have pockets of mid to high
level clouds. Looking at temperatures, much of the area will remain
chilly and around seasonal values. With that said though, areas
prone to downsloping will remain more mild overnight.

Sunday - Thursday: For the remainder of the long term period, active
weather makes a return to south central and southeastern Colorado.
Overall, westerly flow will develop, with a couple of embedded
shortwaves drifting over the region Sunday and then again Tuesday
and Wednesday. This flow pattern will increase orographic forcing
over the terrain, and bring some increased synoptic support as the
waves push over. In addition, this flow will allow for a couple of
Pacific moisture plumes to advect over the region, especially during
the Tuesday - Wednesday period. Given all of that, precipitation
chances will increase for the region, though will favor the
mountains given persistent orographic forcing. Precipitation may
become more widespread Tuesday - Wednesday as one of the
aforementioned shortwaves passes over, which could bring snow to
portions of the region during peak holiday travel times. Otherwise,
relatively light to breezy winds and increasing clouds are expected
for south central and southeastern Colorado. As for temperatures,
Sunday will be the warmest day ahead of the more unsettled flow.
Then for Monday - Thursday, cooler weather returns as cold fronts
drop south across the area.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 439 PM MST Fri Nov 22 2024

VFR conditions are expected at COS, PUB and ALS over the next 24
hours. There will be bouts of mountain wave clouds through out
the taf period, with generally light diurnal wind regimes
expected over night, and south to southwest winds of 10-15 kts
at the terminals aft 18Z Sat.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CLOUSE
LONG TERM...SIMCOE
AVIATION...MW