417
FXUS65 KPUB 031113
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
513 AM MDT Sun Aug 3 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A couple strong to severe storms possible east of a La Junta
  to Kim line with large hail, damaging winds and an isolated
  tornado possible.

- Dry and a couple degrees cooler for the I-25 corridor,
  Mountains and mountain valleys.

- Continued hot and essentially dry through the extended
  forecast period, with a slight increase in precipitation
  chances starting Thursday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 302 AM MDT Sun Aug 3 2025

Currently...an upper shortwave is currently pushing east across the
far Eastern Plains into western Kansas early this morning.  A few
showers and thunderstorms continue across Prowers and Baca Counties,
and should continue east, clearing by 3 AM.  Temperatures are mild
across the region with 50s and 60s across the Plains and 50s over
the San Luis Valley.

Today...an upper high over Arizona will begin to build northward
across Utah and western Colorado through this afternoon.
Northwesterly flow aloft will continue across the Plains, with
another embedded vort max dropping south through the afternoon
hours.  A the surface, a cool front is forecast to drop south across
the Plains by mid morning, with low level flow turning
southeasterly.  As the upper ridge builds to the west, drier air
will begin to move eastward, with dewpoints falling into the 40s
along the I-25 corridor.  How far the dry air pushes will likely
limit how far west thunderstorms will develop this afternoon.  At
this time, thunderstorms look to remain east of a La Junta to Kim
line.  Out east, dewpoints will remain elevated, in the upper 50s to
lower 60s.  SBCAPE values are forecast to be near 2000-2500 j/kg by
this afternoon, and 0-6 km shear is forecast to be around 40 kts.
Storms that develop over our far eastern plains will be capable of
producing large hail to 2 inches in diameter, wind gusts near 60 mph
and an isolated tornado could be possible.  Locally heavy rainfall
will accompany thunderstorms.  It should be noted a few of the high-
res CAM guidance has thunderstorms develop too far east, across
western Kansas, keeping all of southern Colorado dry, but these are
the outlier solutions at this time.  West of the La Junta to Kim
line, dry conditions are forecast to prevail.  Overall, temperatures
will be a few degrees cooler with mid 80s to lower 90s for highs on
the Plains and lower 80s across the San Luis Valley.

Tonight...the upper ridge axis over western Colorado is forecast to
build eastward through the overnight hours.  High-res model guidance
in good agreement with thunderstorm activity out near the Kansas
border, tracking east into Kansas this evening, with dry conditions
forecast once convection shifts east away from the area.
Temperatures look to remain mild overnight with 50s and 60s across
the Plains, and 40s over the San Luis Valley. Mozley

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 302 AM MDT Sun Aug 3 2025

Monday...Upper ridge builds back into the Four Corners with an
amplified ridge axis over NM and CO, and the long-promised warming
and drying begins in earnest. Precip chances will be isolated at
best and tied to the higher terrain. Elevated fire weather
conditions develop across the western sections of the forecast area
and will need to be looked at again for potential highlights. Plan
on high temps in the mid to upper 80s for the high valleys, and
upper 80s to mid 90s for the plains.

Tuesday and Wednesday...Upper ridge remains in place and strengthens
through midweek, producing even hotter temps with a dry forecast for
Tue, and isolated mt convection for Wed. Expect maximum temps to
quickly climb into the 80s to near 90F for the high valleys, and 90s
to around 100F for the plains.

Thursday through Saturday...The extended procedure wants to keep hot
conditions in place into the upcoming weekend, with afternoon
readings at or above seasonal normals. The upper ridge begins to
flatten out, with multiple shortwaves to the north allowed to dip
south into WY and CO. Afternoon and evening isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms are forecast for the higher terrain Thu
and Fri, then more areal coverage of scattered convection is
expected for Sat as some activity spills over onto the plains. Moore

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 512 AM MDT Sun Aug 3 2025

VFR conditions anticipated across much of the forecast area over the
next 24 hrs, including the three main TAF sites of KCOS, KPUB and
KALS.

A boundary will move across KCOS and KPUB right around 18z producing
gusty north-northeast winds, with surface winds then becoming
easterly late afternoon and into the evening.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...MOORE