001
FXUS65 KPUB 311010
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
310 AM MST Fri Jan 31 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Noticeable warm up today.

- Thick band of wave clouds likely along the greater I-25 corridor
region late tonight/Sat morning.

- Dry conditions for the weekend and onward, with spotty snow
showers possible over the central mountains. Plains could see light
snow towards the end of the period but there is still some
uncertainty.

- Higher elevations could see some gusty winds throughout the
period, but the strongest winds could be towards the middle of the
week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 307 AM MST Fri Jan 31 2025

Currently...

System that brought locally heavy snow to parts of the region has
moved out of the region and was pushing across KS. In its` wake,
clear skies prevailed across the fcst area. Ambient temps across the
region early this AM were generally in the U20s to L30s plains while
single digits were noted in the large valleys. Mtn tops were
relatively warm...in the teens...indicating warm air was advecting
in aloft.

Next 24 hours...

Main change for the area will be temps warming up quite a bit as
compared to yesterday. At mid levels, height fields will rise
significantly as closed low pushes well eas over the region and
gradient lessens. With much warmer air moving in aloft, sfc temps
will rise into the 50s (and to around 60 far eastern plains) this
afternoon under mostly sunny skies. The San Luis valley should see
temps in the mid 40s today with other valley locations around 50F.
Mtns will be in 20s and 30s. Winds will be light today with a
generally southerly surface pattern developing over a good part of
the region.

For Tonight, moderate zonal flow develops aloft. This will allow for
wave clouds to develop over the front range. and expect a solid band
of thicker cirrus to be along and immediately east of the
mtns/plains interface by Saturday morning. Likewise, winds aloft at
mtn top level will be increasing, but not overly strong, generally
in the 25 to 45 mph range, especially over the central mtns, the
Sangre De Cristos and Pikes Peak. /Hodanish

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 307 AM MST Fri Jan 31 2025

Scattered snow showers possible through the period over the central
mountains due to orographic forcing along with Pacific moisture.
Outside of that, flat upper ridging aloft will remain in place for
the majority of the long-term period. This will lead to westerly
downsloping winds which will certainly give a nice increase to
surface temperatures. The only day where we could see below seasonal
average temperatures would be Tuesday timeframe. There looks to be a
front coming from the northeast bringing cooler temperatures. With
that being said, it is still up in the air whether or not that front
will make it that far south due to the westerly winds. If the
westerly winds keep the front to the northeast, then warmer
temperatures will remain in place. If the front overpowers the
westerly flow, there could be around seasonal values for
temperatures. As for winds, they will remain gusty throughout the
long-term period, but they could potentially reach 60+ kts
in the southern Sangre`s Wednesday afternoon.

Thursday and Friday...

There is a shot of snow north of highway 50, late Thursday into
Friday. There will be orographic lift and plenty of moisture to work
with, but it just depends on how this system develops. It is quite
far out, and there is some model disagreement in terms of snow
amounts and timing. Be sure to stay tuned for weather updates.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1033 PM MST Thu Jan 30 2025

VFR conditions are expected at COS, PUB and ALS over
the next 24 hours, with generally light diurnal wind
regimes.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...CLOUSE
AVIATION...WANKOWSKI