084
FXUS65 KPUB 072308
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
508 PM MDT Mon Sep 7 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Quite warm with Isolated storms later this afternoon and early
evening.

- Cool front tomorrow bring cooler weather into mid week with a
better chance of showers/storms.

- Warming up once again for the weekend, then another cool-off
  early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 100 PM MDT Mon Sep 7 2026


Monsoon plume continues over the region and this will bring isolated
to scattered showers and storms to the area today and tomorrow.
Activity will be a bit more isolated today, with the best chances
extending from the Salida region east-norhteast over the Pikes Peak.
We will also see isolated storms over the plains today. Storms not
expected to be all that strong with some CG activity and gusty
winds. Any storms will end early this evening.

For tomorrow, we will see a bit better chance of showers and storms
over the region as a cool front will push across the region during
the middle part of the day, and this will bring in an upslope
component to the flow tomorrow, increasing the low level moisture over
the the plains. These storms will then push east over the plains,
and may last well into the night-time hours.

With better moisture over the region tomorrow, the flash flood
threat over the Aspen Acres (AA) burn scar will increase a bit, but
the risk appears to still be somewhat low. I would not be too
surprised if one or two of the storms will be on the strong side due
to the better shear and moisture.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 100 PM MDT Mon Sep 7 2026

Wednesday should be the coolest day of this week, with max temps in
the mid to upper 80s. We should continue to see an uptick in the
afternoon and shower activity. A weak disturbance should brush the
region adding a bit of lift to the area. The best chance of storms
this day will likely be across the southern Sangres and extending
eastward across the CO/NM border. The central mtns may actually dry
out some this day as drier air moves in from the northwest. Storms
may linger well into the evening hours over the plains this day.

Thursday, ridging build once again over the region and noticeably
drier air advects in the from the northwest. Any showers and storms
this day will likely be over the far southeast plains. Temps will
warm up a tad, with mainly mid to upper 80s over the plains and
valleys.

Friday...zonal flow aloft. Main precip chances will likely be over
the CONTDVD region with only isolated activity elsewhere. 90s return
to the plains with mid 80s valleys.

Weekend into early next week, statistical guidance starts to show
variability in the temps, as the guidance products solutions start to
disagree on how the pattern develops. This variability is quite
apparent  during the early week time period as temps show a very
large range. Overall pops chances increase somewhat so we may see a
better chance of precip during this period. Looking at the CPC 6-10
day guidance leans wetter over the region with a bit above normal
temps. Based on this, gridds show upper 80s plain SAT, cooling to
U70s/L80s plains by MON, with pop chances gradually increasing each
day. /Hodanish

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 503 PM MDT Mon Sep 7 2026

VFR cloudiness will stay across southern CO most of the night as
the monsoon plume continues to stream overhead. There is a
small chance for thunderstorms and especially thunderstorm
outflow winds to affect KPUB and KCOS through 01-02z. Winds will
stay breezy into the overnight hours as a north wind shift
moves through KCOS and KPUB behind a cold front. Winds at KALS
will become light and variable overnight. Winds at all three
terminals will increase from a southerly direction on Tuesday
around 10-15 kts. Another round of -SHRA and -TSRA will develop
which could affect KCOS and KPUB with gusty outflow winds after
22z. Confidence is lower at KALS but will carry VCSH for now,
mainly to indicate the possibility of some convectively driven
winds. -KT

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...KT