087
FXUS65 KPUB 250012
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
612 PM MDT Sun Aug 24 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Flash Flood Watch issued from the eastern mountains and the
  Wet Mountain Valley from 12pm to 12am tomorrow afternoon and
  evening.

- Daily showers and thunderstorms with cooler temperatures
  through the next few days

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 304 PM MDT Sun Aug 24 2025

Tonight and Tomorrow:

Showers and thunderstorms continue as the forecast period starts at
6PM tonight. The environment in general isn`t the most conducive for
severe thunderstorms, however there is still around 1000 J/kg of
MUCAPE over eastern El Paso County, so perhaps an isolated severe
storm is possible. Quickly after sunset CAPE falls to almost zero,
ending the severe risk over the I-25 corridor. The storms will
propagate to the east where there is still 1000-1500 J/kg as of 8PM,
but there is a pretty sturdy cap that it needs to overcome to
realize that instability. Right now it looks like that the storms
will weaken as they reach the far eastern plains.

Monday will be cool and rainy. A post cold front air mass sets up
which will push 10-20kts of easterly wind over the plains. All that
easterly moving air will be upslope up the Arkansas River Valley and
towards the mountains. Widespread cloudy skies will keep high
temperatures in the low to mid 70s across the mountain valleys and
the plains. When it gets that cool, it is hard to get too much
instability - sub 1000 J/kg of MUCAPE over the plains, but the 0-6km
Bulk Shear is around 40kts. So even though the instability is
lacking, perhaps some of the storms rotate with the modest shear
values and become strong to severe. At most, 1 inch hail and 60 MPH
wind gusts are the main severe risks tomorrow. Flash flooding does
catch my eye over the mountains and the upper Arkansas and Wet
Mountain Valleys, therefore a Flash Flood Watch has been issued from
12pm to 12am tomorrow afternoon and evening.  Persistent easterly
winds and NW to SE flow aloft (which is parallel to our eastern
mountains) could result into training storms, which would impact the
Decker and Oak Ridge burn scars. The high PWATs would make for a lot
of moisture to precipitate too.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 314 AM MDT Sun Aug 24 2025

Monday Night and Tuesday..

Chances for showers and thunderstorms linger well into the overnight
hours on Monday night, likely continuing straight into Tuesday
morning over portions of the high country. We remain under northwest
flow aloft on Tuesday, which will keep temperatures around 10
degrees cooler than normal for daytime highs. Much of plains and all
of our mountain valleys look to top out in the 70s on Tuesday, with
cloudy skies and continued chances for showers and thunderstorms.
Flash flooding will continue to be a risk on Tuesday. For now, WPC
has a marginal risk for excessive rainfall painted across the
forecast area. Both EPS and GEFS ensemble members show nearly 200%
of normal for PWAT anomalies on Tuesday, though instability may end
up being less of a factor that day. Either way, areas that see
substantial rain on Sunday and Monday will still see the risk for
flash flooding on Tuesday as well.

Wednesday Onwards..

The upper-level ridge looks to build from Wednesday into the second
half of the week, though the monsoon moisture tap looks to remain
over us through at least the first couple days of this period.
Slightly below normal temperatures and daily chances for continued
showers and thunderstorms looks to persist straight through the
second half of the week. Models also indicate potential shortwave
energy for the Wednesday through Friday timeframe, which could bring
increased flash flood and severe thunderstorm chances as well. Our
pattern does seem to begin to show signs of shifting back towards a
more seasonally typical pattern possibly by late weekend or through
the beginning of the following week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 604 PM MDT Sun Aug 24 2025

Still a risk of tsra at KPUB and KCOS until 03z tapering off to
vcsh 03z-05z, then ending overnight. Cigs will lower overnight
into Monday morning, with a period of MVFR cigs at both KPUB
and KCOS 09z-15z. Brief clearing late morning , before next
round of convection develops, and will carry a tempo for tsra at
both sites starting 20z. At KALS, VFR cigs this evening with
vcsh, then clearing after 05z. Storm chances return Mon
afternoon, with prob30 for tsra starting at 19z.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch from Monday afternoon through Monday evening for
COZ072>075-077>080-087.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SKELLY
LONG TERM...EHR
AVIATION...PETERSEN