815
FXUS65 KPUB 032043
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
243 PM MDT Sun Aug 3 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Low probability of thunderstorms developing over the eastern plains
  this evening. If a storm develops, severe storms are
  expected.

- Very hot through next week, but thunderstorm chances decrease

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 240 PM MDT Sun Aug 3 2025

For a few hours tonight after 6PM there is a low chance for severe
thunderstorms over the far eastern plains. However, model soundings
show a stout cap aloft, which to me seems like it`ll inhibit any
convection from developing, which is further supported by latest
model guidance. If they do develop, the main hazards will be 1-2"
hail, 60 to 70 MPH wind gusts, and an isolated tornado.

Tomorrow the upper level ridge in place over the desert southwest
will strengthen and amplify the ridge over Colorado, which really
limits the flow aloft and brings in very dry air. All of which leads
to hotter temperatures and drier conditions than we`ve been
experiencing over the past few weeks.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 302 AM MDT Sun Aug 3 2025

Tuesday and Wednesday...Upper ridge remains in place and strengthens
through midweek, producing even hotter temps with a dry forecast for
Tue, and isolated mt convection for Wed. Expect maximum temps to
quickly climb into the 80s to near 90F for the high valleys, and 90s
to around 100F for the plains.

Thursday through Saturday...The extended procedure wants to keep hot
conditions in place into the upcoming weekend, with afternoon
readings at or above seasonal normals. The upper ridge begins to
flatten out, with multiple shortwaves to the north allowed to dip
south into WY and CO. Afternoon and evening isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms are forecast for the higher terrain Thu
and Fri, then more areal coverage of scattered convection is
expected for Sat as some activity spills over onto the plains. Moore

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 512 AM MDT Sun Aug 3 2025

VFR conditions anticipated across much of the forecast area over the
next 24 hrs, including the three main TAF sites of KCOS, KPUB and
KALS.

A boundary will move across KCOS and KPUB right around 18z producing
gusty north-northeast winds, with surface winds then becoming
easterly late afternoon and into the evening.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SKELLY
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...MOORE