332
FXUS65 KPUB 190532
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1132 PM MDT Mon Aug 18 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hot temperatures and daily mountain showers/storms will
  continue through most of this week.

- After a brief lull in activity Wednesday-Thursday, more
  active weather will return to the area late week and into this
  weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 317 PM MDT Mon Aug 18 2025

Upper ridging has been the trend today, supporting warming and
some rather hot temps across southern Colorado today. Despite
this upper ridging, have observed lee troughing this afternoon.
This lee troughing and backed low to mid level flow has been
enough to provide isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm
development. Initially over the higher terrain and Palmer
Divide, this has since shifted to the I-25 corridor as this
focus has also shifted. While there will likely be additional
development over the far southern I- 25 corridor and even the
far southeast plains through this evening, think the main focus
will be across the plains along and north of the Highway 50
corridor. Better focus for development along with higher
instability will reside in this location. Flow and shear remains
on the weaker side, but think this stronger focus could support
continued isolated stronger to potentially severe development
into the early evening time frame. If a severe storm were to
develop, hail to the size of quarters and wind gusts to 60 mph
would be the main hazards. This risk of any stronger development
and even just thunderstorms should end around 9 PM this
evening, though additional light showery development may persist
slightly longer.

Ridging continues on Tuesday with another warm/hot day
anticipated. With this ridge really establishing itself across
the region on Tuesday, think focus for development will be
lower. While, coverage will be lower and generally stay confined
to the higher terrain, think a few storms could push into the
I-25 corridor. Confidence on the extent of the instability on
Tuesday is lower, and with that in place, have lower confidence
on the intensity of any storm. Will need to keep a close eye on
trends tonight into Tuesday, especially given the possibility
for development to spill off of the mountains.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 331 AM MDT Mon Aug 18 2025

Broad upper-high will settle over the Four Corners Region as we head
into the middle of the week. On Tuesday, recycled moisture will
allow for another round of isolated to scattered storms, largely
focused over the higher terrain in the afternoon. Latest guidance is
lacking in instability over the mountainous areas, with the best
chances for storms over the Pikes Peak Region and our southeast
mountains. Most likely outcome for storm impacts at this time
appears to be gusty outflow winds from high-based storms, along and
adjacent to the I-25 corridor.

As the high pressure settles over Colorado, Wednesday-Thursday will
be a bit on the drier side. Much lower POPs across the area, and
only a few isolated showers possible over the higher terrain each
afternoon. Meanwhile, temperatures remain consistent with the
previous few days and remain above average. Highs will be in the 80s-
90s across most of our CWA, with warmest temps over the far eastern
plains.

Later this week and into the weekend, more monsoon moisture will
make its way into our area. Coupled with a frontal passage Friday
afternoon, the chance for some heavy rain over and near the
mountains seems fairly likely. Will have to keep an eye on how
things look for flash flooding risk as we get closer to date.
Temperatures will also drop a bit behind the front, cooling down
towards seasonal levels.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1115 PM MDT Mon Aug 18 2025

KCOS and KPUB: VFR conditions are expected over the next 24 hours.
Lingering vcsh at KCOS should end by 08z, with decreasing
clouds overnight. Included a prob30 for tsra at both KCOS/KPUB
from 21z/22z til 02z, as most CAMs show convection at/near both
sites from late afternoon into the evening. Main impact from
storms will again be gusty/erratic outflow winds, before
activity pushes east onto the plains and dissipates by late
evening.

KALS: VFR conditions are expected over the next 24 hours, dry
conditions are anticipated through tomorrow afternoon, with
periods of mid to high level clouds. Low chance for a shower or
thunderstorm to impact the TAF site late tomorrow afternoon,
however confidence in this is too low at this time to include in
the TAF. Winds will generally be light overnight into Tue
morning, then a few CAMs suggest outflows from distant
convection over the Sangres may generate gusty e-se winds from
mid-afternoon into Tue evening.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RODRIGUEZ
LONG TERM...GARBEROGLIO
AVIATION...PETERSEN