048
FXUS65 KPUB 311129
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
529 AM MDT Sun May 31 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hot, dry and breezy conditions expected for Sunday and Monday
  most areas with an uptick in thunderstorm chances Mon across
  the plains though low confidence on severe thunderstorm
  potential due to timing of moisture return

- Cooler and wetter for Tuesday and Wednesday with risk for
  heavy rainfall potential increasing with thunderstorms for all
  areas

- Trending drier and warmer again late week into next weekend
  though at least isolated thunderstorms will be possible over
  the mountains each day

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 1249 AM MDT Sun May 31 2026

One more dry day expected for today across southern CO with
temperatures warming around 2 to 5 degrees over those of
yesterday. West southwest flow aloft over the region will mix
down in the afternoon across the San Luis Valley and southern
portions of the I- 25 corridor in the afternoon resulting in
elevated fire weather conditions. Fortunately land management
agencies report fuels are too moist or in green up for fire
weather highlights. But humidity values will be below the
critical 15 percent threshold across all of the southeast plains
and valleys once again. NBM temperatures looked on target and
on par with guidance values so no changes made.

There could be some elevated afternoon/early evening convection skim
by northern portions of the forecast area but odds of any measurable
precipitation looks extremely low and will carry mostly silent (sub
10 percent) pops for now.  Tonight will be clear and cool again
across the valleys where a dry airmass will allow for efficient
radiational cooling.  The boundary to our north pushes back
southward into the plains overnight which may keep temperatures on
the warmer side due to some elevated northerly winds and low level
moisture return.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1249 AM MDT Sun May 31 2026

The front pushes through the southeast plains Monday morning, laying
up near the southern CO border in the afternoon. The real
cooler airmass behind the boundary will stay to the north, with
temperatures on Monday actually warming a few degrees more for
most areas as heights rise aloft with the building southern
plains upper ridge. On the northern fringes of this ridge, flow
aloft is still respectable, so deep layer shears are running
around 35-40 kts. But HREF mean CAPE Monday afternoon range from
a few hundred J/kg along the I-25 corridor to around 1500 J/kg
across Kiowa county. HREF paintballs show convection developing
along the Palmer Divide and across Baca/Prowers counties in the
afternoon and rolling eastward through the evening, as a
convective cluster develops across northeast or east central CO
and pushes off into western KS overnight. Convective coverage
across southeast CO looks pretty isolated but parameters would
be in place for a strong to severe storm if they can develop.
The Palmer Divide and Kiowa county look the most likely to see
some large hail or damaging winds, with risks leaning more
towards strong winds farther south and west towards the I-25
corridor. Once again, the timing of the moisture return and
resultant CAPE will be the key ingredient for storm strengths
and it is possible that this boundary could slip southward which
could increase the hail risk over more of southern CO.

The southern plains ridge continues to amplify for Tuesday and
gets shunted eastward on Wednesday as weak disturbances and
moisture in an active southern stream gets funneled up across
southern CO. Thunderstorm chances ramp up for Tuesday and
Wednesday. Deep layer shears get progressively weaker as the
flow aloft decreases. So as afternoon and evening thunderstorms
become more widespread, storms will become less organized, with
heavy rainfall, gusty outflow winds, and some brief small hail
possible. May need to monitor burn scars more closely as storms
become more slower moving, though mesoscale details are
difficult to pin down this far out and confidence that burn
scars will be directly impacted is still low. Temperatures will
cool off a few degrees with increased clouds and afternoon
convection, and nudged NBM down a few degrees for Tuesday.

The pattern becomes more messy for late week into the weekend
as weak southwest flow with embedded disturbances continues to
track across CO. Thunderstorm chances decrease especially into
next Sunday as the atmosphere appears to dry out some ahead of
another more amplified trough taking shape across the northwest
U.S. However, sufficient moisture lingers for isolated to scattered
afternoon showers and thunderstorms over the mountains each
day, which is a wetter trend compared to model runs last
evening. Temperatures rebound back into the 90s across the
plains by next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 527 AM MDT Sun May 31 2026

VFR conditions with dry weather will persist across the TAF
sites this period. While winds will generally be light and
diurnally driven, a period of gusty winds are likely at ALS and
COS sites later today.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...KT
AVIATION...RODRIGUEZ