651
FXUS65 KPUB 212328
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
528 PM MDT Thu Aug 21 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A cold front and increasing moisture will bring better
  chances for thunderstorms to the area Friday afternoon and
  evening.

- Cooler and more active weather expected over the weekend into
  next week. Stronger storms and heavy rainfall will be
  possible, especially Sunday and Monday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 203 PM MDT Thu Aug 21 2025

Very sparse convection across the area again today, with only
some weak/high based storms over the srn Sangres and back toward
the Continental Divide. Expect this trend to continue into the
evening, with just some isolated/briefly windy storms ending
quickly by sunset.

On Friday, upper high continues its slow westward drift, while
northern stream upper trough moves into the Great Lakes, driving
a fairly stout (for summer) cold front through the region by
late afternoon. Models generally suggest a slow moistening of
the mid-levels by late day as weak monsoon plume migrates
eastward under the high, while a substantial increase in low
level moisture is forecast behind the cold front, especially
late afternoon/evening over the Pikes Peak region. As a result,
expect an upturn in thunderstorm activity over much of the
region, with the greatest coverage of storms over the swrn mtns
and in Teller/El Paso Counties. Least chance for storms will be
over the far sern plains, where front will likely arrive too
late to spark much convection until perhaps late Friday night.
Instability climbs into the 1000-2000 J/KG range behind the
front in El Paso County, which should support fairly widespread
storms and a threat of locally heavy rainfall, though 0-6km
shear isn`t particularly strong (20-30 kts), which may limit
storm strength. Front looks to arrive late enough for max temps
to rise to above average levels once again, with 80s/90s
widespread.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 337 AM MDT Thu Aug 21 2025

Northwest flow will set in aloft as the upper-high continues to
build just west of the Four Corners. Temperatures will cool down for
the weekend thanks to Friday`s front, with mid 70s-80s expected
across our CWA both Saturday and Sunday. Meanwhile, a decent plume
of monsoon moisture will head spread showers and thunderstorms
across the area both days. There will be a decent shear profile in
place, with easterly winds over the plains and northwest flow aloft,
and with the amount of moisture available we could certainly be
seeing some stronger storms, especially over the Palmer Divide and
portions of the mountains/plains interface. Over the higher terrain,
so far some heavy rain seems more likely than any severe impacts,
with the possibility for flash flooding increasing Saturday and
Sunday.

Looking into early next week, the upper high is pushed a bit further
to the south-southeast, leading to some cooler air moving in.
Current NBM highs for Monday are largely in the 70s across the area,
though a few places will still climb above 80 degrees. Chances for
more widespread precipitation will also increase as we get a better
tap of monsoon moisture into the region. As of now, these cooler and
wetter conditions appear to last towards at least the middle of next
week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 522 PM MDT Thu Aug 21 2025

VFR is anticipated during the next 24 hours at all 3 taf sites
KPUB, KALS and KCOS. The only concern will be at KCOS and a cold
front will move across KCOS late in the fcst period. There may
be some thunder at KCOS late tomorrow afternoon. Strong gusty
winds may occur with the storms/frontal passage.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...GARBEROGLIO
AVIATION...HODANISH