639
FXUS65 KPUB 232331
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
531 PM MDT Sun Aug 23 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scatted to numerous showers and storms expected this evening,
  especially across the plains.

- Showers and storms expected each day of the upcoming week,
  though with a downtick in activity for the later part of the
  week.

- Flash flooding will be a concern for the first half of the
  week, especially across the Aspen Acres burn scar.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 203 PM MDT Sun Aug 23 2026

Tonight: For Sunday night, active weather continues for portions of
south central and southeastern Colorado. A ridge of high pressure
will be remain in place just south of the area, with rich monsoon
moisture streaming up and around this feature and into the area.
This moisture tap, along with influence from vort maxes and
shortwaves, will help showers and storms ongoing during the late
afternoon to push across the plains through late evening to early
overnight. While shear will be lackluster, a couple of strong storms
will be possible given increased CAPE values. The strongest storms
may be capable of producing heavy rainfall and flash flooding, along
with gusty outflow winds to around 55 mph from wet microburst/heavy
water laden downdrafts. Along with that, given the moisture in
place, showers may continue to fester across the higher terrain and
valleys into the late evening. With that all said, showers and
storms are expected to dissipate by the mid overnight hours, with
dry conditions by tomorrow morning. Outside of all of that, with the
pattern in place, winds are expected to remain light outside of
storms, less than 10 mph, with pockets of clouds persisting through
much of the evening and overnight hours. Looking at temperatures,
another warm and above seasonal lows night is anticipated given the
moisture and cloud cover. The plains will cool into the 60s, the
valleys into the upper 40s to upper 50s, and the mountains into the
low 40s to mid 50s.

Tomorrow: Heading into Monday, another similar day to the past
couple is expected for south central and southeastern Colorado. The
high pressure will continue to sit south of the area, and continue
to stream deep moisture up and around and into the region. Again,
with influences from vort maxes and shortwaves, another round
afternoon showers and storms is anticipated, with initial
development along the higher terrain, and increasing in coverage
across the valleys and plains heading into mid to later afternoon.
Heavy rainfall, flash flooding, and strong outflow winds to around
50-55 mph will be possible with any stronger storms. Beyond of all
that, also similar to the past couple of days, winds will remain
light, around 10 mph, outside of influences from storms, with clouds
increasing in coverage through the afternoon hours. As for
temperatures, another warm and above seasonal day is anticipated.
The plains will warm into the 90s, the valleys into the 80s, and the
mountains into the mid 50s and upper 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 203 PM MDT Sun Aug 23 2026

Monday Night - Saturday: For the rest of the forecast period, active
weather continues for south central and southeastern Colorado,
though with a downtick in activity heading into the later part of
the week. The stubborn high pressure will remain in place through at
least the first half of the week, bringing additional abundant
moisture. This moisture, along with any vort maxes and short waves,
will bring additional days with afternoon and evening showers and
storms, with the greatest coverage Tuesday and Wednesday. Then
heading into the later part of the week, the high pressure is
expected to drift southward and flatten out. This will eventually
cut-off the deeper moisture tap, with showers and storms decreasing
in coverage past Wednesday, but especially Friday and Saturday.
Otherwise, winds continue to remain relatively light, with increased
cloud cover expected each afternoon. As for temperatures, while a
dip is expected midweek, temperatures remain warm and mostly above
seasonal values, especially heading into next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 529 PM MDT Sun Aug 23 2026

Any thunder at the taf sites at the beginning of this period
should end within an hour. Then expect VFR conditions and
diurnal wind flow thereafter. There once again will be a low end
chance of some thunder over the taf sites tomorrow late
afternoon.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch until 9 PM MDT this evening for COZ079-080-
086.
Flash Flood Watch from Monday afternoon through Monday evening
for COZ079-080-086.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SIMCOE
LONG TERM...SIMCOE
AVIATION...HODANISH/SIMCOE