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FXUS65 KPUB 231726
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1026 AM MST Sun Feb 23 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warm and becoming windy mountains with spotty critical fire
weather conditions southern I-25 corridor this afternoon.

- Remaining warmer than normal through the extended period, with
  the coolest temperatures on Wednesday.

- A quick moving storm system may bring light snow to the
  Continental Divide, with minor accumulations possible over the
  Central Mountains Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 346 AM MST Sun Feb 23 2025

The warm up continues today as upper level heights rise in the wake
of a passing disturbance this morning.  The main affect from this
disturbance is a band of high level cloudiness traversing CO, which
will be exiting the eastern most counties by late morning.  As the
flow aloft becomes more westerly this afternoon, winds will increase
across the high country with more mid/high cloudiness spreading in
from the west.  H7 temps will be around 2 degrees warmer than
yesterday, and with lee side troughing in the afternoon along with
increased mixing, this will bring a return of 50s and 60s to the
valleys and southeast plains, and 30s and 40s for the higher
mountains this afternoon. There will be a few hours of spotty
critical to near critical fire weather conditions in Huerfano county
but conditions look to brief and localized in coverage for fire
weather highlights, though this will be monitored closely.

Winds will decrease across most areas tonight but will remain strong
across the higher peaks with gusts spreading down the lower eastern
slopes after midnight through the predawn hours.  Could see some
localized gusts to around 50 mph, though wind speeds look a little
too weak for mountain wave high wind development.  Areas to watch
will be the Air Force Academy area and the southern I-25 corridor in
Huerfano county. Otherwise, downsloping winds will keep temperatures
on the warm side for the lower eastern slopes areas.  Have warmed
these regions from the national model blend, into the low 40s.
Otherwise a mix of teens, 20s and 30s can be expected elsewhere. As
another weak disturbance moves across the region tonight, some
isolated snow showers will be possible across the central mountain.
Any snowfall looks spotty and light with amounts under 1 inch across
the higher peaks and passes of Chaffee and Lake counties. -KT

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 346 AM MST Sun Feb 23 2025

Not much change to the forecast thinking through the extended
period with decent model agreement and low ensemble spreads.
Overall, warm for the first part of the week, with a slight cool
down for mid week, and warming back up by late week.

Monday into Tuesday...flat upper ridging will move across
Colorado for the first part of the work week. Weak embedded
energy in the flow may spark a few snow showers over the Central
Mountains, mainly north of Cottonwood Pass, where minor
accumulations may be possible. The Plains look to remain dry
with high temperatures in the 60s to lower 70s both afternoon.
Winds will be on the increase, especially Tuesday afternoon.
Spotty, near critical fire weather conditions are possible,
mainly in the wind prone areas of the southern I-25 corridor.

Wednesday...a quick moving upper shortwave trough will drop
south across Colorado on Wednesday. A cold front will have
arrived Tuesday night, with gusty north winds across the Plains
and San Luis Valley. Temperatures will be cooler, with highs in
the 40s to lower 50s for most of the region. Spotty, near
critical fire weather conditions will be possible across the San
Luis Valley. Models continue to be dry with this system, with a
few snow showers along the Continental Divide. Minor snow
accumulations are expected over the Central Mountains, with very
little from the La Garita range south.

Thursday though Saturday...the upper shortwave will quickly drop
southeast of the area on Thursday, with upper ridging rebuilding
across Colorado Friday into Saturday. Overall, dry weather is
expected during this time period. Temperatures will also warm
back through the 50s and into the 60s across the lower
elevations. It should be noted that models are developing an
upper low and tracking it east out of southern California for
the weekend into early next week, which could bring increased
chances for precipitation to the area beginning Saturday night.
Mozley

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1018 AM MST Sun Feb 23 2025

VFR at all taf sites the next 24 hrs. At KCOS and KPUB, winds
will follow usual diurnal cycle, with speeds under 15 kts. At
KALS, weak surge dropping south through the San Luis Valley will
turn winds n-nw this afternoon, before light and variable winds
return overnight. Still a potential (20-30 percent) for low
level wind shear at KCOS after 09z tonight, though latest
indications are that stronger winds will stay above the 2000 ft
AGL LLWS threshold, and won`t include a mention in the taf at
this point.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...PETERSEN