430
FXUS65 KPUB 181717
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1117 AM MDT Tue Aug 18 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- 100s return to a good portion of the plains TODAY. Isolated storms
this evening

- Cooler Wednesday, FLASH FLOODING of the Aspen Acres (AA) burn scar
possible once again on this day.

- Getting warm again late week/weekend then cooling with monsoon
  flow returning early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 1206 AM MDT Tue Aug 18 2026

100 degree readings will once again return to a good portion of the
plains today, with readings from 100 to 103 from roughly Pueblo east
to the KS border and down towards Springfield. 90s will occur rest
of the plains and mid Ark Rvr valley areas, with upper 80s in the
larger valleys.

As for precip today, not likely. We may see some very isolated
showers over the region by late afternoon, with a slightly better
chance of showers and storms over the southern mtns and I-25 corridor
during the evening hours as a cool front pushes down the plains this
evening. Once the cool front moves down, low level moisture will
improve over the plains, and we could see a few storms develop along
behind the front over the plains and I-25 corridor region through
the overnight hours. There is a low chance we could see a strong
storm or two along the southern mtns/I-25 corridor region (including
the AA burn scar) tomorrow evening.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 1206 AM MDT Tue Aug 18 2026

For Wednesday, the FLASH FLOOD threat will return to the AA burn
scar sfc upslope flow combines with northwesterly flow aloft.
Guidance shows best moisture (and related instability) will be
pinned along the mtns/plains interface and I-25 corridor region.
This could allow strong storms to push southeastward along the
southern mtns, bringing a heavy rain threat to teh AA burn scar
during the afternoon time period. In addition to the heavy rain,
shear will be sufficient for rotating storms and severe storms will
be possible along the southern mtns/I-25 corridor region. Max temps
will be about 10 degrees cooler on WED as compared to TUE.

Looking at Thursday into the weekend, it will get warm once again
with temps peaking around 100 across parts of the plains with 90s
elsewhere across the lower elevations and 80s in the valleys. There
will be some moisture noted in the mid levels so isolated to
scattered storms will be possible each day most areas, with better
chances of storms over the CONTDVD region.

By next week, a more favorable pattern for showers and storm
develops as a more favorable monsoon pattern develops over the
region. This is reflected in the deterministic guidance along the
NBM data plots for the region. Temps will also cool down a few
degrees during this period. /Hodanish

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1117 AM MDT Tue Aug 18 2026

VFR conditions are mostly expected at KALS, KCOS, and KPUB through
24 hours.

For KCOS, kept in a PROB30 for passing showers this evening, 00-03Z
as a cold front moves in. Expecting gusty winds, 25-30 knots, along
and just behind the front into early Weds morning.

Kept a PROB30 at KPUB for the front, though any shower coverage will
be much more isolated. Still expecting gusts to 30 knots behind the
front lasting into early Weds morning.

For KALS, VFR conditions and light winds through 24 hours. There is
a low end chance for isolated showers to move through the valley
around 00Z as well, so added in a PROB30, though the main concern
will be outflow winds.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
evening for COZ079-080-086.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...GARBEROGLIO