


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO
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791 FXUS65 KPUB 201117 AFDPUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pueblo CO 517 AM MDT Sun Jul 20 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers and thunderstorms are expected both this afternoon and tomorrow afternoon. - Showers and storms (likely in mtns/sctd on plains) through Thursday, then drying out and becoming hot into the upcoming weekend. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 303 AM MDT Sun Jul 20 2025 Today: Sunday brings another another day of showers and storms to portions of south central and southeastern Colorado. Southwesterly flow will be in place over the area as a high pressure site to the southeast. This flow will allow for persistent orographic forcing. Along with that, moisture advection northward over the area will be taking place along the western side of the high pressure. With orographic forcing and moisture in place, afternoon showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop. Showers and storms are anticipated to first develop along the higher terrain by mid afternoon, and then drift across the valleys and plains by late afternoon. A couple of strong storms may be possible, with strong outflow winds up to around 50 mph the primary hazard, though small hail and brief periods of heavy rain will be possible with any stronger storms. Outside of that, mostly clear skies early will be become mostly cloudy as showers and storms materialize, with winds remaining relatively light around 10 mph. Looking at temperatures, another hot Summer day is expected, with the plains rising into the 90s, the valleys into the upper 70s to 80s, and the mountains into the mid 50s to mid 70s. Tonight: active weather is anticipated for the evening hours, with quieter conditions returning for the overnight hours. Synoptically, flow will remain southwesterly as the aforementioned high pressure sits to the southeast. This will continue to allow for orographic forcing over the higher terrain. Moisture will also continue to stream over the area with the high pressure still in place. With the forcing and moisture, showers and storms are expected to persist into the evening, and spread further across the valleys and plains. With that all said though, as diurnal instability wanes, precipitation present is expected to dissipate through the late evening hours, with dry conditions then prevailing during the overnight hours. Otherwise, cloudy skies will become mostly clear by Monday morning, with winds remaining light around 5 mph. Temperatures will again be mild for the region, with lows dropping into the 60s for the plains, into the upper 40s to 50s for the valleys, and into the mid 30s to 40s for the mountains. Tomorrow: The start of the new week brings another rinse and repeat type day for the region, with afternoon showers and storms. Flow will maintain a southwesterly component as the high pressure continues to sit the southeast. This flow pattern will keep orographic forcing in place. Along with that, moisture will continue to stream over the area. These factors are expected to allow for another round of afternoon showers and storms. Showers and storms are expected to blossom initially along the mountains by mid afternoon, and then start to push across the valleys and plains by late afternoon. Gusty outflow winds, small hail, and periods of heavy rain may accompany any organized thunderstorms. Beyond all of that, like previous days, clear skies early will become cloudy by the afternoon, with winds remaining relatively light. As for temperatures, another warm day is anticipated, with much of the region warming to above seasonal values. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 303 AM MDT Sun Jul 20 2025 Per latest deterministic guidance, monsoon tap likely to increase/continue through at least Thursday, then tap get pinched off as drier air moves in from the Pacific. Temps will gradually cool a bit region-wide Tues and Wed as more clouds will be over the region, then temps start to ramp up starting this weekend, with temps near/around 100F over the plains along the Arkansas River valley by Sunday. Per DESI statistical guidance, coolest day over the plains will likely be Thursday, with the overall best chance of rain over the plains on Wednesday and Thursday, hottest days will be next Sunday into Monday. Over the mtns, Generally wet afternoon conditions should continue through Wednesday then drying out Thursday, with little precip into the weekend. Wettest days over the higher terrain look to be Tuesday and Wednesday. /Hodanish && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/... Issued at 507 AM MDT Sun Jul 20 2025 VFR conditions are expected during the next 24 hours at all taf sites. KPUB, KALS and KCOS. There may be a brief period or two of a passing convective shower at KCOS and KALS which could bring a brief period of mvfr due to precip along with gusty winds. Outside of any convection, surface wind flow will be diurnally driven. && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...SIMCOE LONG TERM...HODANISH AVIATION...HODANISH