876
FXUS65 KPUB 050542
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1142 PM MDT Fri Oct 4 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Critical fire weather concerns for Saturday across portions
  of southern Colorado.

- Near record heat for much the lower elevations.

- Dry conditions with well above seasonal temperatures expected
  through the long term period.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 234 PM MDT Fri Oct 4 2024

Currently...satellite imagery is mostly clear across southern
Colorado this afternoon, with just a few cumulus over the southern
Sangre de Cristo range.  Temperatures are quite pleasant, with
mostly 70s across the region.  A few degrees of warming should have
us topping out in the upper 70s to near 80s this afternoon.

Tonight and Saturday...an upper trough is forecast to pass well to
the north late tonight into Saturday, with our current upper ridge
forced south across the Desert Southwest.  No precipitation is
forecast with this trough passage.  The main concerns for Saturday
will be critical fire weather conditions for portions of the area
from late Saturday morning into the evening hours.  Gusty winds
associated with the trough base will spread across the Pikes Peak
Region, south across Fremont and Pueblo Counties.  Humidity values
are forecast to fall in the 10 to 15 percent range, and will combine
with northwest winds gusting 25 to 30 mph will produce the critical
fire weather conditions.  Elsewhere, winds look to be weaker, with
near critical conditions possible.  Upgraded the Fire Weather Watch
to a Red Flag Warning due to the critical fire weather conditions.
If you have plans for outdoor burning on Saturday, consider
postponing them until another day.  The other main concern will be
the heat. Near record highs are forecast for Alamosa, Colorado
Springs and Pueblo for Saturday afternoon. Highs will top out in the
80s to lower 90s across the lower elevations, with upper 70s over
the San Luis Valley.  Mozley

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 234 PM MDT Fri Oct 4 2024

Saturday Night - Thursday: Quiet weather will prevail across
south central and southeastern Colorado. An anomalously strong
ridge of high pressure will be in place throughout the long term
period. Ensemble model guidance are in strong agreement about
this, leading to very high (80-90%) confidence in this pattern
evolution. Given increased subsidence and minimal moisture over
the region, dry conditions are anticipated for south central and
southeastern Colorado. Though dry conditions are expected, an
isolated shower or two may blossom along the mountains later in
the long term period given weak ripples within the flow, though
confidence is very low (10-15%) in any development at this
time. Otherwise, relatively light winds and pockets of afternoon
clouds are anticipated for the area. As for temperatures, the
October heat continues. With the ridge in place, much of the
region will warm to above seasonal values for early to mid
October, though Sunday will be closer to seasonal values given a
dry cold front passage Saturday night.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1140 PM MDT Fri Oct 4 2024

VFR conditions at all three terminals through the next 24
hours. However, gusty winds are expected after 16z through
afternoon hours at KCOS and KPUB due to a lee trough in advance
of an approaching weather system. Gusts could approach 25 kts
at both terminals. No precipitation is expected.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from 10 AM to 9 PM MDT Saturday for COZ221-
222-226>229.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...SIMCOE
AVIATION...CLOUSE/HODANISH