Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 220457
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1057 PM MDT Mon Jul 21 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Increased shower and thunderstorm coverage tomorrow and Wednesday
with an elevated risk of localized flash flooding possible.

- Hot and dry conditions return for the weekend into early next
  week, with highs pushing 100 degrees on the Plains.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 229 PM MDT Mon Jul 21 2025

Currently...upper level riding is expanding across the Central
Plains, with southerly flow spreading across Colorado.  Embedded
energy in the flow has led to scattered shower and thunderstorm
development across the higher terrain early this afternoon.
Temperatures are hot across the Plains, with mostly 90s, while the
San Luis Valley in near 80.

Rest of today and tonight...the upper pattern isn`t forecast to
change much through tonight.  Expect the energy in the flow to track
northeastward through this afternoon and evening.  This will help
showers and thunderstorms move off the higher terrain and across the
Plains through midnight.  The main concerns with thunderstorms will
be lightning, gusty outflow winds and locally heavy rainfall.  As
convection moves off the higher terrain, DCAPE values increase with
most dewpoint observations along the I-25 corridor in the lower 40s.
A few wind gusts near 50 to 55 mph may be possible along the I-25
corridor.  As we progress through the overnight hours, convection
looks to dissipate as it moves east towards the Kansas border.  Dry
conditions are expected by Tuesday morning.  Overnight lows tonight
will fall into the low 60s on the Plains, and near 50 across the San
Luis Valley.

Tuesday...the upper pattern looks to remain the same with the upper
ridge to the east and southerly flow across Colorado.  Moisture from
the south is forecast to advect northward through the morning, and
an upper wave over New Mexico will strengthen as it moves into
southern Colorado.  Surface flow on the Plains will turn
southeasterly, helping to keep dewpoints well into the 50s through
the afternoon.  PWAT values will also increase, to near 1.4 inches
across the region.  Showers and thunderstorms are expected to
develop by mid day, initially over the mountains, then spread into
the I-25 corridor.  The main concerns from thunderstorms will be
lightning and heavy rainfall.  Areas over the San Juan Mountains,
southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains, east into the I-25 corridor
have the greatest potential for heavy rainfall Tuesday afternoon,
and should be prepared for localized flooding.  Thunderstorms will
be efficient rainfall producers.  Severe potential looks limited,
with CAPE values near 1000 j/kg, and weak 0-6 km shear values.
Temperatures tomorrow will warm quickly, with most of the Plains in
the mid to upper 90s by the early afternoon.  Highs near 80 are
forecast across the San Luis Valley.  Mozley

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 301 AM MDT Mon Jul 21 2025

The main concern for this forecast period is the potentially hot and
dry weather for this weekend/early next week for the forecast area.
Looking at the DESI statistical guidance, average temp guidance is
showing roughly around 100F for areas from east of Canon City to the
KS border for this period, with high end max values of around 105.
Additionally, guidance is not showing any appreciable qpf during
this time period. This pattern will have implications from a fire
weather perspective as it will dry out the vegetation across the
region. However, with that said, synoptic winds should not be all
that strong as the near 600 decameter 500 mb mid level high pressure
system (AKA, a heat dome) will be parked over Colorado, and this
will keep the 20 foot surface winds relatively light.

In the meantime, somewhat cooler weather is expected over the region
during mid week. It appears this cooler weather will be the result
of monsoonal disturbance/additional cloudiness being over the region
during this period over the plains, and this will keep temps mainly
in the upper 80s to lower 90s across the plains Wed and Thu. Temps
will start to increase Friday and the hot wx moves in for the
weekend into early next week.

Looking beyond this long range period (mid week next week), the mid
level high is fcst to remain parked over the region, but the high
will become "meteorologically dirty`, that is monsoon moisture will
get embedded within the high and we should see a bit cooler weather
and a somewhat better chance of showers and storms over the region,
especially over the higher terrain.

Overall, this upcoming SAT, SUN and MON look HOT with very little
cloudiness.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1055 PM MDT Mon Jul 21 2025

Mid summer monsoonal pattern continues across the region, with
available moisture increasing within weak southwest flow aloft.
VFR conditions with generally light diurnal wind regimes are
expected at COS, PUB and ALS over the next 24 hours. Skies to
clear through the overnight with showers and storms building up
again after 19Z. Will keep prob30 wording in the tafs for now.
Main affects of showers and storms at the terminals would be
gusty outflow winds and brief MVFR conditions with heavy
rainfall.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...MW