776
FXUS65 KPUB 110653
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1253 AM MDT Fri Sep 11 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry and warm today, with spotty critical fire weather conditions
  over and near portions of the higher terrain.

- Temperatures ebb and flow through early next week with a slow
  increase in precipitation chances.

- Cooler and wetter for the middle and end of the next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 1253 AM MDT Fri Sep 11 2026

Current water vapor imagery and upper air analysis indicates modest
westerly flow in place across the region, with the center of a large
upper high in place across the Desert Southwest, as occasional embedded
waves translate through the stronger zonal flow across the Northern Tier.
GOES blended total precipitable water imagery indicates very dry air
in place across the eastern Great Basin into western and central Colorado,
where current dew pts are in the teens and 20s, and even in the single
digits (9F and 8F) at the Saguache  and Leadville airports at this time.
Water vapor imagery does indicate another slug of sub-tropical/monsoonal
moisture in place across the Baja of California into the western Great
Basin region at this time.

For today and tonight, westerly flow aloft increases through the day,
as embedded waves continue to translate across the Intermountain West
and into the Northern Rockies tonight. The embedded dry air mixes across
the higher terrain  into the I-25 Corridor and plains through the day, while
mid level moisture slowly increases across western Colorado, leading to
some convective clouds over and near the higher terrain for the late
afternoon into the early evening. Westerly afternoon breezes for areas
over and near the higher terrain will develop spotty critical fire weather
conditions, mainly across the Central Mountains into the mid and upper
Arkansas river valley and portions of the San Luis Valley. However,
conditions are not widespread enough for any fire weather highlights
at this time. Temperatures are expected to by some 5 to 10 degrees above
seasonal norms, with highs mainly in the 90s across the plains, and
in the 60s, 70s and 80s across the higher terrain. Clearing skies
through the evening will lead to seasonal lows in the 50s to low 60s
across the plains, and mainly 30s and 40s across the higher terrain.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1253 AM MDT Fri Sep 11 2026

Models continue to indicate a few embedded waves translating across the
Northern Tier through the weekend, ahead of a stronger upper low progged
to move onshore across the PacNW on Sunday and continue across the
Intermountain West and Northern Rockies through the middle of the week.

With that said, another weak front passing across the plains Saturday
morning will bring a slight cool down to temperatures, mainly across
the plains. A slow increase in available moisture within the westerly
flow aloft will bring a slight chance of high based afternoon showers
and storms over the higher terrain, with a few shra possibly moving
across the I-25 Corridor late in the afternoon and early evening.

By Sunday, available moisture continues to increase within southwesterly
flow aloft, leading to chances of afternoon showers and storms over and
near the higher terrain, especially across the Continental Divide.
Increasing southwest flow helps to develop lee troughing across the plains
bringing breezy south to southwest winds and possibly a few storms along said
boundary. Highs warm back into the 90s across the plains and remain in the 60s,
70s and 80s across the higher terrain.

For Monday and Tuesday, moist southwesterly flow continues across the
region, with increasing uvv ahead of the passing upper system bringing
good chances of precipitation across the higher terrain Monday and
Tuesday, with the systems passing cold front Monday night bringing
chances of precipitation to eastern Colorado into Tuesday. Temperatures
at and slightly above seasonal levels on Monday, cool to below seasonal
on Tuesday, with highs in the 70s to low 80s across the plains, and
mainly 50s and 60s across the higher terrain, save for 70s across
the high mountain valleys on Tuesday.

Monsoonal moisture looks to remain in place within modest west to
southwest flow aloft across the region through the end of next week,
leading to continued daily chances of precipitation, as well as
temperatures remaining around seasonal levels.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1120 PM MDT Thu Sep 10 2026

VFR at all taf sites the next 24 hrs. Winds will slowly diminish
this evening, then become light drainage overnight into Fri
morning. Typical afternoon e-se upslope winds (8-12 kts) then
expected at KCOS and KPUB after 18z, with w-sw winds (7-11 kts)
at KALS through the day.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...PETERSEN