009
FXUS65 KPUB 300238
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
838 PM MDT Wed Jul 29 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- One more day of organized heavy rain activity, flash flooding
likely over parts of the region.

- Drier THU/FRI/SAT, then hot SUN, MON

- Rain chances increase and possibly cooler stating TUE

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 833 PM MDT Wed Jul 29 2026

Updated to extend the Flash Flood Watch through midnight, with
the exception of Teller and El Paso Counties where heavy rain
potential has ended. Thunderstorms with heavy rain continue to
track east from Pueblo, south to near Trinidad. Locally heavy
rainfall and lightning will be the main concerns as these storms
track east.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1227 PM MDT Wed Jul 29 2026


Flash flooding once again will be a threat today. Perusing HREF
guidance overall best chance of flash flooding today will be over EL
Paso county, as numerous high rest product show substantial QPF
moving over this region late this afternoon and especially early
this evening. Additionally, this area got quite a bit of rain
yesterday and flash flooding did occur over the eastern parts of the
county.

Another area will be the Aspen Acres (AA) burn scar region. Quite a
bit of rain has fallen over the scar yesterday and any additional
rain will quickly run off. However, confidence is not as high as
yesterday as qpf forecasted for later this afternoon was not as high
as yesterday. However, one small storm producing heavy rain could
cause significant problems over the AA region. The best chance for
heavier rain over the AA burn scar will be from 4 to 7 pm per latest
guidance.

Storms will once again roll slowly across the plains bringing
beneficial rain to the lower elevations, with the activity expected
to be over the KS/CO border area around midnight.

Of interest, guidance brings another round of showers and storms
across the central mtns late this evening into the early morning
hours.

Tomorrow, it will be much drier over the region, however we will
see a few storms over the plains later tomorrow afternoon and
evening. Flash flood threat will be much lower tomorrow, however any
rain on a burn scar could be problematic. During the evening, a weak
boundary will move across the region, and this may keep the
scattered storms ongoing into the early AM hours of Friday. A few of
the storms Thursday could be strong as there will be some shear on
this day.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1227 PM MDT Wed Jul 29 2026

Friday.... Some drier air will come down on the plains, and drier
air is noted moving into the central mtn area. Likewise, these areas
will see little if any precip. However, areas along the mtns/plains
interface will see the best instability and moisture, and we may see
a localized area of higher pops along the mtn/plains interface, with
the best chance across the southern Sangres. Additionally, the AA
burn scar will have a chance of some localized heavy convective
precip.

Saturday will be similar to Friday, but the precip chances this day
will be best over the far southern Sangre De Cristo region.

Of note, temps FRI and SAT, temps on the plains wont be too bad,
mainly 90s lower/mid 90s with U80s El Paso county.

For SUN and MON, 100s return to most of the plains with M90s El Paso
county. Any storms will be isolated and high based.

Tuesday it will cool off once again with storms in the mtns and
isolated on the plains.

WED will be drier with less storms. /Hodanish

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 601 PM MDT Wed Jul 29 2026

PROB 30 has been included in the TAFs this evening and
tomorrow afternoon for KCOS and KPUB. Thunderstorm chances in
general have decreased for tomorrow, so they will be more
sporadic in nature, but if a storm develops over KCOS or KPUB
MVFR to LIFR conditions are possible during that period tomorrow
afternoon.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until midnight MDT tonight for COZ074>078-083-
087>089-093>096.
Flash Flood Watch until midnight MDT tonight for COZ079-080-
086.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MOZLEY
SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...HODANISH/SKELLY