545
FXUS65 KPUB 110458
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1058 PM MDT Mon Aug 10 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- One more very hot day on Tuesday, with a Heat Advisory for
  eastern Fremont, El Paso, and Pueblo Counties. Another round
  of windy afternoon convection also expected.

- Slightly cooler Wednesday, with increased thunderstorm chances
  at many locations. Mountains could see some pockets of brief
  heavy rainfall.

- Cooler temperatures then expected from Thursday into the
  weekend, along with widespread thunderstorms and increasing
  flash flooding concerns.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 120 PM MDT Mon Aug 10 2026

Currently, upper high over nrn NM again today, with weak wly
mid/upper level flow continuing to push a modest tap of mid-
level moisture eastward across CO. Isolated -tsra already
underway as of 1 pm over the higher terrain/Palmer Divide, and
expect activity to continue to spread away from the mountains
and across most valleys/plains from mid-afternon into early
evening. Again, more wind (gusts 50-60 mph) than rain with most
activity (DCAPE in th 1000-1500 J/KG range), though t/td
spreads aren`t quite as extreme as the past couple days as
surface dewpoints have crept upward across the region. As a
result, a few locations in the mountains/Raton Mesa area could
see wetting rainfall under any stronger storms. Activity then
wanes toward sunset and ends by midnight, with clearing skies
into Tue morning.

For Tue, upper high continues to drift across nrn NM, though
some subtle changes in moisture and temperature appear across
the region. In general, moisture continues to slowly increase
with scattered to numerous showers/thunderstorms over the
mountains and isolated activity on the plains. Mountain
convection has a greater potential of producing measurable
rainfall in spots, while lower elevations storms will lean more
toward gusty winds than meaningful rainfall for another day.
Temperatures Tue should end up within a couple degf of Monday`s
readings, as mid-level temps drift downward a bit over the
plains, but stay nearly the same over the mountains and along
the NM border. Just hot enough for one more heat advisory for
Pueblo/Colorado Springs/Canon City, with highs in the low 90s to
1ow 100s, and have re-issued the highlight for the afternoon
and evening hours. Readings are forecast to stay below 105f
across the lower Arkansas Valley Tue, so held off on issuance of
highlights here.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 120 PM MDT Mon Aug 10 2026

Transition to wetter weather starts to accelerate on Wed, as
upper high center finally drifts into the srn plains and monsoon
moisture plume returns to Colorado. Greatest coverage of storms
on Wed will be over the mountains/valleys, with pockets of heavy
rain possible as air mass moistens. Storms less numerous east of
the mountains, though swly steering flow should carry at least
a few storms eastward onto the plains Wed afternoon/evening.
Mountain max temps will cool several degf Wed as mid level temps
fall and cloud cover becomes more widespread, while only minor
cooling expected on the plains where readings could still exceed
100f over the lower Arkansas Valley for one last day. High then
slides into the sern U.S. for late week into the weekend, with
monsoon moisture well entrenched over Colorado through the
period. Cold front late Wed/Thu will also bring back low level
moisture to the plains and eastern slopes. Expect widespread
showers and thunderstorms each day, with heavy rainfall and
flash flooding possible as well. Temps will cool back into the
70s/80s through the period, which will be a few degf under
seasonal averages for a change.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1052 PM MDT Mon Aug 10 2026

VFR cigs will be slow to clear overnight as remnant showers
persist through 08z across portions of the area. Winds may
continue to be locally breezy at times at KCOS and KALS but
should settle into light diurnally driven patterns. Another
round of showers and thunderstorms will develop Tuesday
afternoon with a slight uptick in coverage. Will carry a PROB30
for -TSRA at all three terminals beginning around 21-22z and
continuing through 01-02z. Gusty erratic winds up to 40 kts and
brief VFR cigs/vis with RA will be possible. Winds will remain
convectively driven through the evening before settling into
normal patters once again Tuesday night. -KT

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 7 PM MDT Tuesday for COZ083>086.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...PETERSEN
AVIATION...KT