678
FXUS65 KPUB 072316
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
516 PM MDT Sat Jun 7 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Thunderstorms return for Sunday with a few strong to severe
  storms possible.

- Thunderstorms continue through next week with temperatures
  returning to above normal by late week into next weekend as
  drier southwest flow returns.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 215 PM MDT Sat Jun 7 2025

Thunderstorms have been more sparse today thanks to drier dew
points behind yesterday`s front. Still watching far southern
and southwest areas for thunderstorm development through this
evening, with the main risks being gusty outflow winds and
lightning across the southwest mountains and San Luis Valley,
and perhaps some small hail along the Raton Mesa if storms can
develop that far north. Highest dew points and southerly flow
will continue to hug the southern slopes of the Raton Mesa so
best focus for stronger storms should stay to our south today
with decreasing clouds overnight.

Another cold front drops in early Sunday morning shifting winds
out of the north, then east by afternoon. This will bring a
return of upslope flow in the afternoon for the southeast
mountains and plains beneath modest northwest flow aloft.
Concerned that low level moisture will not have sufficient time
to return westward for widespread strong to severe thunderstorm
development, but we should see at least an uptick in
thunderstorms as weak energy drops southeastward within the flow
aloft. HREF mean CAPE shows up to 1000 J/kg within 30-40 kts of
deep layer shear. Best parameters for severe thunderstorms
appear to be across the southeast corner of the state, though
several high res models suggest storm initiation may be just to
our south. Thunderstorms will develop over the mountains during
the afternoon and drift eastward in the afternoon with the
southern I-25 corridor seeing the best chance of a strong to
marginally severe thunderstorms through early evening before
activity shifts southeastward. Didn`t stray far from model
blends for low temperatures Sunday night except in the cooler
valleys out west where they have been routinely dropping into
the lower to mid 30s in the upper Rio Grande.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 316 AM MDT Sat Jun 7 2025

Another round of thunderstorms will develop across the mountains
and adjacent plains on Monday in post frontal upslope flow.
Drier air working in from the north tends to limit CAPE values
to under 1000 J/kg and deep layer shear weaken to 20-25 kts as
winds aloft decrease as a result of the upper ridge
transitioning in from the west. Weak energy penetrating beneath
the ridge will keep sufficient moisture and forcing for
scattered to numerous thunderstorms with the greatest
thunderstorm coverage across our southern mountains. Overall,
storm strengths should be weaker with gusty winds, lightning,
small hail and localized heavy rainfall being the primary risks.

Flow aloft becomes more wly beginning Tue, with a subtle
downturn in convection Tue/Wed, especially over the eastern
plains as some mid-level drying and subsidence develop behind
weak upper level low drifting across TX/OK. Still enough
moisture for mountain convection both days, while max temps
climb back to near or slightly above seasonal values. SW flow
aloft increases slightly Thu/Fri, with lee trough on the plains
potentially focusing some convection, especially as weak upper
level energy moves across. Mountains may begin to see some
drying starting Fri, as strengthening mid level swly winds
bring in drier air from the swrn U.S.

Models trending drier/warmer next weekend as deep upper low
develops over the Pacific NW, with dry sw flow spreading across
the srn Rockies.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 512 PM MDT Sat Jun 7 2025

KALS...VFR conditions through the next 24 hours. There have been
light rain showers passing across southern portions of the San
Luis Valley this afternoon, but look to remain near or just
south of the terminal. If one of these showers does hit the
terminal, a few sprinkles would be possible. This activity
should dissipate with sunset. A few wind gusts out of the west
are possible Sunday afternoon, near 20-25 kts. Again, a few
showers or thunderstorms may pass across the San Luis Valley
during the afternoon.

KCOS and KPUB...VFR conditions through much of the next 24
hours. A cold front will arrive late tonight into Sunday morning
with gusty northerly winds during the morning hours, swinging
easterly by the afternoon. Increased chances for showers and
thunderstorms Sunday afternoon at both terminals, with reduced
CIGS and VIS both possible as they pass.  Mozley

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...PETERSEN
AVIATION...MOZLEY