807
FXUS65 KPUB 020533
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1133 PM MDT Fri Aug 1 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong to severe storms will continue to be possible through the
  rest of today and into this evening.

- Strong to severe storms will be possible for Saturday and
  Sunday as well, with higher moisture content and higher
  chances for severe being shunted off to our eastern plains.

- Our trend for warmer and drier weather is still on track for
  early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 230 PM MDT Fri Aug 1 2025

Currently..

As of 2PM, scattered showers and thunderstorms continue to move
across the high country, with a few storms beginning to make their
way onto the plains across the southern I-25 corridor. Storms are
producing lots of lightning, and somewhat less rainfall than what
we`ve seen in the past several days. Temperatures are hovering
between 70s on the northern and southern ends of the I-25 corridor
to 80s for the rest of the plains. Dewpoints are still mostly in the
50s, with Springfield coming in at 60F for a dewpoint this hour. SPC
mesoanalysis has 1000 J/Kg of CAPE and 20kt of bulk shear over the I-
25 corridor this hour, where storms are beginning to come off the
mountains.

Rest of Today and Tonight..

SPC mesoanalysis has 35-40kt of bulk shear still analyzed across the
plains for the next 6 hours as storms are expected to continue to
push eastwards, along with 1500-2000 J/Kg of CAPE. Kiowa COunty will
see the highest risk for severe storms this evening, and is outlined
by the SPC for a slight risk. A marginal risk is still expected
elsewhere, with large hail, damaging winds, and flash flooding still
possible with all storms today. Though the flash flooding threat has
diminished somewhat as PWATs and QPF have decreased and drier air
has begun to move in from the west, areas that have seen ample
rainfall over the past several days will once again be at risk for
flooding today, as storms will still exhibit intense rainfall rates
at times. Area burn scars, low lying areas, urban centers, and other
flood prone areas such as the Chalk Cliffs will also be at risk.
Convection looks to mostly push east of the I-25 corridor by around
6-7PM, and east into Kansas by around midnight or so at the latest.
Overnight low temperatures are expected to be slightly cooler than
normal again, with clearing behind today`s convection and drier air
moving in at the low levels. This will mean lows in the 40s again
for mountain valleys, and 50s to low 60s on the plains.

Tomorrow..

The Monsoon plume continues to bring us active weather for our
Saturday, though the bulk of its moisture does start to get shunted
off to the east by tomorrow afternoon. The SPC has much of Kiowa,
Bent, Prowers, and Baca counties outlined in a slight risk for
severe thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon, which lines up well with
where shortwave energy and highest forecast shear amounts look to
overlap with greatest instability tomorrow afternoon. This area will
see chances for large hail, damaging winds, flash flooding, and
possibly one or tornadoes as well. Severe winds look to be highest
likelihood risk for tomorrow across our far eastern plains, especially
given that drier air is beginning to really infiltrate from the west
from the lower levels. Forecast soundings for tomorrow afternoon
show inverted V profiles, and DCAPE values in excess of 1500 J/Kg.
Though our mountain adjacent plains and the I-25 corridor are not
outlooked for tomorrow, gusty outflow winds will be possible for
these areas as well as any storms that develop here will also be
high based. Our temperatures warm up a few degrees heading into our
Saturday as well, with much of our plains warming into the upper 80s
and low 90s, and our mountain valleys warming into the low and mid
80s. These temperatures will be around 3 to 5 degrees warmer than
today for most locations, but still very near seasonal normals.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 302 AM MDT Fri Aug 1 2025

Saturday...Broad ridge of high pressure will remain in place across
the Desert SW, with weaker west-northwest flow aloft, and warm
southerly flow continuing at the surface. Models are indicating some
drying taking place from west to east, and forecast dewpoints point
to the llvl moisture pool shrinking and retreating back to the
eastern border. Taking a look at model CAPE, anywhere from 1800-2300
j/kg of CAPE will reside across the far eastern plains which
corresponds well with predicted dewpoints. Add to this bulk shear of
40-45 kts and another upper disturbance crossing the Rockies through
the day, and all indications point to increasing severe wx
potential. SPC has the eastern plains from approx Crowley and Otero
counties and eastward within a Marginal area for severe wx, and
Kiowa, Bent, Prowers and Baca counties within a Slight. WPC has also
included the far eastern plains within a Marginal area for excessive
rainfall, taking into account the potential for periods of heavy
rainfall from slow-moving storms. As has been mentioned before, with
multiple days of spotty moderate to heavy rainfall, keep track of
those areas that are developing saturated ground as that will be the
precursor for potential flooding issues. Plan on high temps in the
upper 70s to lower 80s for the high valleys, and mid 80s to mid 90s
for the plains.

Sunday through Tuesday...Upper ridge builds back into the Four
Corners region starting Sunday, with the ridge axis situated over NM
and CO. This will provide for dry and very warm conditions with
temps climbing back up to normal to slightly above normal. As for
precip chances, isolated at best and mainly tied to the higher
terrain, though models are hinting at dryline interactions that
could try and spill back into Colorado. As for temps, look for highs
in the 80s for the high valleys all three days. Across the plains,
temps will warm into the upper 80s to mid 90s Sunday and Monday,
then 90s to around 100F for Tuesday.

Wednesday and Thursday...Upper ridge starts to flatten and spread to
the east, opening the door for northern upper disturbances to sneak
back down into Colorado and help off more convection. Though temps
are expected at this time to remain very hot, precip chances
increase to scattered for the higher terrain both days, with
isolated convection developing across the plains. Moore

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1133 PM MDT Fri Aug 1 2025

VFR conditions to prevail at COS, PUB and ALS over
the next 24 hours. With residual moisture in place,
there is a very low chance of seeing IFR stratus
at the terminals, however, will not include it the
tafs at this time. Another round of afternoon showers
and thunderstorms can be expected over and near the
higher terrain, however with drier air filtering
into the region, storms that can develop near the
terminals will be higher based, with gusty outflow
winds up to 40kts the main threat. The best chances
of storms/outflow affecting the terminals will be at
COS and PUB from 20Z-24Z, though will keep prob30
in the tafs at this time.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EHR
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...MW