819
FXUS65 KPUB 151717
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1017 AM MST Sat Nov 15 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry and above seasonal temperature are expected today and
  tonight across south central and southeastern Colorado.

- Travel impacts with some moderate snow accumulations possible
  across the eastern San Juan mountains Sunday night into
  Monday. Only light snow possible for the remainder of the
  higher mountains.

- Active weather pattern continues into next week with rain and
  snow showers possible, especially for the mountains with
  temperatures cooling to near normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 239 AM MST Sat Nov 15 2025

Today: For the start of the weekend, quiet, yet warm, weather is in
store for south central and southeastern Colorado. Synoptically, a
ridge will be in place over the region, bringing increased descent
and weak flow at best. Given this, dry conditions are anticipated
through Saturday across the area. Outside of that, light winds
around 10 mph are expected areawide, with pockets of high level
clouds streaming over the region. Looking at temperatures, as
alluded to, it will be a warm day, with much of the area anticipated
to be 15-25F above seasonal normals despite a weak cold front
passage Friday night. With that said, the plains will warm into the
70s, the valleys into the 60s, and the mountains into the 40s to
50s.

Tonight: Heading into Saturday night, quiet weather prevails ahead
of an approaching pattern change. The ridging that was in place
Saturday will remain in place overnight, bringing persistent
subsidence and weak flow. Given this, dry conditions will continue
overnight for south central and southeastern Colorado. Otherwise,
light winds around and less than 10 mph are anticipated, with
pockets of high level clouds persisting. As for temperatures, a
relatively mild night is expected, with lows staying 5-15F above
seasonal normals. Given that, the plains will cool into the mid 30s
to mid 40s, and the valleys and mountains into the 20s to mid
30s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 239 AM MST Sat Nov 15 2025

Sunday...upper low will lift to the northeast from southern CA
through NV and western UT. This will increase southwest flow
over the region spreading moisture into the eastern San Juan
mountains during the afternoon. It will be a mild day across all
of southern CO, with increasing winds across the high country
as the gradient aloft increases ahead of the approaching system.
High temperatures will top out in the 70s across the plains
with 60s for the valleys and mid 30s to 50s across the
mountains. Showers will develop and spread into the Continental
Divide in the afternoon with the eastern San Juan mountains
seeing the greatest coverage/intensity where southwesterly flow
will provide the best orographic lift. However, snow levels
remain quite high through the day with impacts from snow staying
above pass level.

Upper low weakens and fills as it tracks into the northern U.S.
Rockies with energy in the base of the trough maximizing across
southern CO Sunday night as it swings through. Snow levels drop
and winds increase with snow intensifying Sunday evening across
the eastern San Juan mountains before spreading north and
eastward into the central and southeast mountains overnight.
Greatest accumulations are still advertised across the eastern
San Juan mountains where National Blend of Models shows 50-70
percent probabilities of over 6 inches. Probabilities of higher
accumulations have dropped with the 00z runs, with less than
10% of members suggesting accumulations over a foot. Elsewhere
probabilities of snow are considerably less with most areas
remaining under 3-4 inches across the Sawatch and higher Sangre
De Cristo ranges for the 90 to 95th percentiles. Still suspect
the eastern San Juan mountains may need a Winter Weather
Advisory Sunday night through Monday morning, but with the
farther west track of the upper low, am concerned that snow
totals could continue its downward trend if further changes in
the storm track and intensity occur so will hold off on
highlights for now and let day shift re-assess.

Winds increase Sunday night through Monday morning with westerly
winds expected to spread into the southeast mountains and lower
eastern slopes after midnight through Monday morning. Could see
some gusts up to 50-55 mph along the southern I-25 corridor
south of Colorado City to Raton, with gusts to 60-70 mph across
the eastern slopes of the southern Sangres. Have to get into the
95th and greater percentile range of the NBM to see spotty high
wind criteria gusts but this will bear close monitoring.

System passes to the north and east on Monday with snow tailing
down in the mountains. Temperatures cool a few degrees for all
areas, but still remain above normal for most areas. An active
weather pattern continues through the extended as more energy
moves into the western U.S. with another closed low taking shape
across CA then ejecting out across the Rockies with various
tracks and timings. We should see another mid week system bring
snow to the southwest mountains on Wednesday with some spill
over possible into the plains as it ejects into the central
plains. Overall precipitation chances look greatest over the
Continental Divide and southwest mountains, with considerably
less precipitation possible for the plains, though ensemble
means do hint at some wetting rains (around a tenth or 2)
possible for the southern plains depending on how deep/closed
off the system remains as it crosses the mountains. Too soon to
say on those details, but overall temperatures should cool down
to closer to seasonal normals with mountain snow showers
possible, and some isolated rain showers possible for the
plains. -KT

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1014 AM MST Sat Nov 15 2025

VFR conditions are near certain during the next 24 hours at all
3 taf sites, KPUB, KALS and KCOS. Winds will be light and
primarily diurnally driven.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SIMCOE
LONG TERM...KT
AVIATION...HODANISH