335
FXUS65 KPUB 251112
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
512 AM MDT Fri Jul 25 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A warming and drying trend kicks off today and looks to persist
well into the beginning of next week.

- Near normal temperatures and continued chances for strong, and
  possibly a few severe, storms are likely for this afternoon.

- Hot and dry Sunday, highs near 100 on the Plains.

- Moisture returns to mid next week, with widespread showers and
  thunderstorms likely, and a return of the flash flood threat.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 322 AM MDT Fri Jul 25 2025

Currently..

Showers have cleared the area for the most part, though lots of
cloud cover remains draped over our plains early this morning.
Clearing has already begun over the high country, where dewpoints
are also falling off quickly as dry air moves in. Leadville is
already seeing a 39 degree dewpoint as of 1am. On the plains though,
temperatures are still in the 60s and low 70s under the cloud deck,
with dewpoints still in the 50s and 60s. Winds are still easterly on
the far eastern plains.

Today and Tonight..

Today kicks off a warming and drying trend that looks to persist
well into the beginning of next week. With broad upper ridging to
our southeast and an upper low over the western CONUS, we`ll be
stuck in broad southwesterly flow aloft, effectively cutting off the
deep moisture tap that we`ve been seeing the past several days.
Southwest flow aloft today though will still be sufficient enough to
bring in scattered showers and thunderstorms for the high country
and our mountain adjacent plains. Storms today could be strong to
marginally severe, especially over the Pikes Peak region. Overall,
instability looks to be a bit limited today as we dry out in the mid-
levels. PWATS look to return to lower, more normal levels as well.
Shear does increase slightly today though, which will help storms to
stay a bit more organized as they come off the terrain this
afternoon. The main risk with storms today will be gusty outflow
winds, with gusts to 55 mph possible, as some high res model
guidance does show over 1000 J/Kg of DCAPE, along with inverted V
sounding profiles. Hail and heavy rain will be possible as well.
Despite the drying trend, anywhere that saw flooding today could see
more of the same tomorrow if storms manage to move over the same
locations again. Temperatures look to be very near normal, with
highs in the low 90s across the plains, and mid 80s over our
mountain valleys.

Saturday..

Our warming and drying trend continues into Saturday as high
pressure continues to build over the southeast CONUS. We remain in
in southwest flow aloft on the northwest periphery of this ridge,
with little to no moisture tap by the time we get to Saturday.
Afternoon relative humidity values go from 20-30% today to teens
tomorrow, and temperatures increase by several degrees as well. Much
of our plains will be in the mid to upper 90s, with triple digits
likely over the Lower Arkansas River Valley, and mid to upper 80s
over mountain valleys. Very isolated showers and thunderstorms will
be possible over portions of the high country, to include the higher
elevations of the Pikes Peak region. Chances for gusty winds from
these storms will be higher than chances for meaningful rainfall.
For the most part, winds are expected to remain below critical fire
weather thresholds on Saturday, though portions of the San Luis
Valley could see briefly critical conditions. All areas will be hot
and dry.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 322 AM MDT Fri Jul 25 2025

Models continue to be in good agreement through the extended
period of the forecast. Upper level high pressure will dominate
the middle part of the country into mid next week, with hot
conditions across Colorado through Monday, cooling off a few
degrees for mid to late week, with a return of monsoonal
moisture and thunderstorms.

Saturday night through Sunday...ongoing isolated to scattered
thunderstorms across the higher terrain and the Pikes Peak
region look to dissipate Saturday evening, with dry conditions
prevailing into Sunday morning. Overnight lows will fall into
the 60s across the Plains, and 45 over the San Luis Valley.

Dry air in southwesterly flow aloft will dominate the pattern on
Sunday. Temperatures will be hot, with mid 90s to lower 100s on
the Plains, and 80s across the San Luis Valley. Lack of any
embedded disturbances, and moisture should keep Sunday dry.

Monday through Friday...the upper high over the Central Plains
will remain stationary for the early part of the week. Moisture
out of the Desert Southwest will begin to advect northward on
Monday, as associated weak energy lifts into Colorado. This will
help generate showers and thunderstorms by Monday afternoon,
mainly over the Mountains, with a few storms possible into the
Pikes Peak region by the evening.

Several disturbances are forecast to lift northward out of the
Desert Southwest Tuesday into Wednesday. PWAT values are
forecast to increase by this period, with values approaching 1.5
inches. Low level moisture will also be increasing, with
dewpoints on the Plains in the mid 50s to lower 60s. Low level
southeasterly flow will help keep moisture in place, and allow
for destabilization across the region. Widespread showers and
thunderstorms are expected both day, initially over the
Mountains, then spreading east across the Plains. The main
concerns from thunderstorms will be lightning, heavy rainfall
and outflow winds. Flash flooding concerns will also ramp up
given the moisture increase and the expected precipitation
efficiency of thunderstorms. Overall, temperatures will be
cooler, with 80s to lower 90s on the Plains, and 70s to near 80
across the San Luis Valley.

The upper ridge over the Central Plains is forecast to slip
southwest into the Desert Southwest by late week. Energy will
continue to move across Colorado over the ridge. Thunderstorm
coverage may be less late in the week given that moisture has to
travel a bit further. But, still expect decent coverage,
initially over the Mountains, then into the Plains. Afternoon
highs will continue to be in the 80s across the Plains, and 70s
in the San Luis Valley.  Mozley

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 509 AM MDT Fri Jul 25 2025

KALS...VFR conditions through the next 24 hours. A few showers
are possible this afternoon across the San Luis Valley, but
confidence in one hitting the terminal is low at this time.

KCOS...generally VFR conditions through the next 24 hours.
Showers and thunderstorms are possible at the terminal late this
afternoon into the early evening. Gusty outflow winds near 30
kts along with briefly reduced CIGS and VIS are possible with
passing thunderstorms.

KPUB...VFR conditions through the next 24 hours. There is a low
probability of a thunderstorm late this afternoon into the
evening, but most activity looks to remain north of the
terminal.  Mozley

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EHR
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...MOZLEY